Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Look you have me and TSLA_Hopeful saying this is really not that abnormal. Seeing as I saw it twice in a three year span and I'm not in procurement I'd say it's not "HIGHLY unusual".

Yes balance sheet and all the rest we've heard it before, not even going to agree or disagree, we're just saying this story is another shrug in reality and is neither here nor there in terms of OMG Tesla needs cash meow.

I agree with you, if they do need money at the end of the day I'd bet they do that... which is really counter to your original point. You negotiate with suppliers from future discounts to asking for cash back because that's what a good company does. Seen it all before.

EDIT: Let me add the reasoning on why you ask for the cash back in the first place instead of just credit or future discount. When you are asking for cash it's usually because the vendor *sugar* the bed in some way, my case was promised feature not working and early failure of product. You ask for money back as a shot across the bow because the other two options lock you into that supplier in the future. So you're basically saying look you cost me money and you are going to pay me for that and we MAY decide to continue forward with you given the price is right AND you clean up your act.

To me that's the most likely case and what happens from my experience. However if Tesla was specifically asking for this deal from all vendors I would worry that they are being that much of a dick to all their vendors. But that wouldn't even make sense in the first place as to me there's usually a reason to ask for that.
Already heard someone say that these memos are only going out to certain vendors. (Don't know how they know that but presumably other vendors were contacted and said "no, we didn't get any such memo".)

I believe the goal of the disinformation is to scare off the good vendors. Really disgusting behavior -- it's trade libel and sabotage.
 
At production rates of 500+ per day we are talking a few hours to make sure each Tesla location has 2 cars, it's really a drop in the bucket for the revenue it will generate. I'd have one at busy locations just out there offering rides to people .... In Southern CA we have spots like the Americana in Glendale and 3rd St. Promenade which both feature Tesla stores, each location is a popular destination for shopping/eating/hanging out with literally thousands of visitors per day ... park on on the street and offer rides!

Even if you are not selling to those people you are countering all the BS posted on the internet ..... people read that crap on Yahoo and as we all know the negative articles generate the most clicks. I think nothing beats people actually touching/riding/experiencing the Model3. For those that have been to a Tesla store and watched people drool over the cars .... you get what I'm talking about. I think some of my drool is on those cars! :)

Cheers to the longs .....
I can see the trolls saying "See Tesla doesn't care about all these people that paid for reservations and were promised a Model 3 with a Tax Credit. Tesla doesn't care about you and Musk lied."
 
Interesting. Tbh I’ve only been at the ‘procured’ end of this negotiation. Being asked/forced to reduce your price with x% next quarter, accept extended payment terms etc. All normal. Asked to provide a rebate on work delivered and paid for 2 years ago, not so much. Is that really common?
It is absolutely 100% clear from what Musk wrote that they are NOT asking for rebates on work with final acceptance. If they're asking for a rebate on work delivered 2 years ago, it's because it's still not working right. I've asked for rebates in that situation, and I've gotten them.
 
I've now seen literally dozens of comments from people in manufacturing (at Electrek and elsewhere) saying exactly what you said.
Yes in real market forces if a company trims its workforce and negotiates better deals from suppliers usually the market rewards cost cutting. In alternate Tesla world even normal business operations are treated as negatives. Again I would write so much more but I have to go to the gas station to charge my phone...
 
I freaking can't believe this can be spun. In supply chain management software, a large chunk of complexity just comes from frequent price adjustment and kickbacks. It's a common practice in all business. The author is either completely ignorant or deliberately misleading.
It's the WSJ, whose campaign of lies drove Vince Foster to suicide. Documented.

Deliberately misleading.
 
Here's what Baird thinks of it all - BUY BUY BUY!

Saage_advice on Twitter

DizmALiXcAAhTX5.jpg
 
The type of front running you refer to here is a bit misunderstood. Market makers can see order flow and adjust to be the price that things get matched with.

Actually submitting fake orders or other strategies to drive the price on a direction carries enormous fined . You aren't even allowed to have a market maker certification if you don't have a compliance team watching and analyzing to prevent that.
That's why it's not done by people with market maker certifications -- everyone knows spoofing happens. And if you think the SEC actually levies fines for market manipulation any more, I'd ask you to consider what century you're living in.
 
Actually you would just watch spreads widen.
Spreads are effing huge, much bigger than they were in the 1980s, so I'm not sure how they could get much wider. One fairly staid stock I've been watching has had bids of $75 and asks of $85 fairly frequently -- that's a spread in excess of 10%, which would *never* have happened in the old days.
 
Naive question from a frustrated fan and investor.

It seem to be the general consensus that the Q2 report will be easily spun into more doom and gloom by the shorts. So...I assume it is relatively certain that the FUD will continue to run thick and fast at least until October when the Q3 report hopefully shows undeniable positive news. (Not that that will make a difference to the shorts.) That's a long time for the stock to tank.

Yes. What's the question?
 
You are right that the FUD will continue, hammering the stock down probably to the mid/low 200’s. Then on undeniable good news it will reverse to end up somewhere in the 300’s. A new ATH will take about a year from now. The next major lift into the 400’s probably not until 2020.

Anybody’s guess, but that’s mine for now, based on what I’m seeing how the market reacts to the FUD.

Edit: additional observation: it’s going the way Morgan Stanley predicted a while ago in their note “where will the stock go from here”. Adam Jonas stated in March for second half of this year, it will go either up to $400 or down to $200. He believed down to $200 more likely and it seems that’s where we are heading.
Buying pressure (sorry, Curt, I know the traditional term is buying interest, but it really is pressure, not just interest) seems to massively intensify below $300. It's a big psychological number, but also numbers very near that pop out of simple valuation models which are not optimistic (but not too pessimistic either).
 
Ha! Sorry, you're right. I got so caught up in my own despair I forgot to ask the question. LOL! The question was if people thought that this trend would continue it's downward spiral through Q3 or beyond or if there was some sort of hidden rainbow in the wings that would help the stock recover more in the short term.

I think it's going to be very hard for them to keep the stock below $300. And I think the Q3 deliveries and earnings reports will shake out a lot of bears. The Q4 deliveries and earnings reports should shake out the rest.
 
Buying pressure (sorry, Curt, I know the traditional term is buying interest, but it really is pressure, not just interest) seems to massively intensify below $300. It's a big psychological number, but also numbers very near that pop out of simple valuation models which are not optimistic (but not too pessimistic either).

In that context the traditional term is "support". That aside, your incisive parade of commentary today is much appreciated and I concur.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.