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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Might be a good time to have longtime CFO Deepak Ahuja phone into CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. With his very calm and confident voice he can talk about (assuming this is all the case)

- how odd it is that this is being covered given

- how routine and non-controversial this kind of negotiation is

- based on his 6-7 years at Ford and 20 years in the industry

- Tesla having already passed through its point of greatest vulnerability

- Sustainability of ramp, near term move to positive cash flow, no need to take in cash

- reiterate in his calm voice how odd it is that this is even a story in any large media outlet, let alone it becoming breaking news all over the place,

- close things with some “makes you wonder” comment (hey, it is my wish list, lols)
 
Where's @Hogfighter I'd like to know the official Negativiry Rating...

Anyway, good buying opportunity methinks. Well not for me, I have no spare dosh right now :( And no, I'm not going to open a margin account!

Just returned from sailing around the Bahamas. Will update the Index tomorrow, but right now it looks off-the-charts high. Bought more today
 
A couple of thoughts from this weekend ...

I have two family members who are both on the list for Model 3s, one is in his 40's and the other is in her 70's. I was talking to both over the weekend as they were mulling over their decision to go through with the purchase and both had comments that I found curious. Timeline, quality and tax incentives were the main issues .... since they are both interested in the extended range batteries I told them the timeline is pretty short at this point, from what I understand the web shows 1-3 months and people are reporting getting their cars sooner than that. The bigger issue is quality, both had concerns which I think are totally unfounded .... they asked what I thought .... I don't have one but I know people that do and I've yet to hear anything less than stellar reviews from those that own the car ... in addition the reviews from various publications speak volumes about how great the Model 3 is. I sent both of them the WSJ review of the performance model and while they are not interested in that model I believe it should alleviate any concerns regarding build quality. Finally both were pretty unsure about the tax credits as to how much and how they are applied, now IMHO they should be better informed if they bothered to put $1k down on the car, I would think they would be following the progress and learning everything they can but alas they did not and I can imagine there are many more like them. My conclusion is that Tesla needs to do a MUCH better job educating their potential buyers ... at least have a "Tax Credit" tab on the website that allows you to put in your delivery zip to see what you are entitled to get. Put some of the reviews on the site ... and get more specific about the models for lay persons ... what they do a good job of is telling everyone what 0-60 speed is .... many of us (including myself) could really give a crap about that. It's fast enough.

Elon wants the model 3 to be a car for the masses, well then promote what the masses care about. Does anyone know what 0-60 in a Toyota Camry is like ? NO because no one who buys one cares. HOW about test drives available at EVERY location .... the masses are not used to buying a car without the test drive. Now you can say these people put money down and they are ready but in my experience many people will be nervous about placing the actual order without driving the car which is what you are asking as test drives for Model 3 are not readily available, I'm sure in this case having my relatives take a test drive would seal the deal. It's beyond stupid not to at least have the test drives for those that have been on the waiting list .... I'd have 2-3 model3s at every location and hire a small staff just to do test drives .... period. Yes I understand they don't need to "sell" the car at this point but I do think they need to close the deal with people on the list and this is a big deal for those who don't follow the companies every move like many on this forum do.

I think Tesla is so concerned with manufacturing that they are dropping the ball in terms of marketing , even when an Apple product is not ready it is in the store for people to get their hands on and play with as this helps build excitement and solidify purchase decisions. Finally, there is a lot of bull$#@$ with this company in terms of press and the internet ... every crash, fire and problem is magnified to a very unfair level as we all know ... having great product demos in stores (test drives) will really go a long way ....

BTW, I just signed up for a model 3 test drive .... let's see how long it takes. I'm betting I'll get one pretty quick because I live in Burbank and there is a Tesla store right here which I hear is stocked with Model3s but many around the country will not have it so easy.
 
My concern isn't with one memo to one company but the apparent trend for the stock to reflect ANYTHING negative and it's reluctance to recognize anything positive.
You're a step ahead of the wider market, exactly where an investor wants to be.

Understanding that Elon will NEVER let this part of the mission fail is something the algos and "analysts" are simply can't understand. They think if they put enough pressure on, Elon will somehow walk away from making EVs. You know that's an absolute impossibility, so any downward pressure should be welcome.

The harder they push, the harder the market will push back.
 
How long have you been investing? I've watched this same thing with AAPL for decades. Seriously if the blatant manipulation by outright lying bothers you you probably shouldn't be invested in TSLA.
Sorry, you're right. I am new to the stock market. I just have this thing with dishonesty. Deceipt drives me nuts and I am quickly learning that Wall Street thrives on it...and the majority of people seem to be ok with it.

Dan
 
Naive question from a frustrated fan and investor.

It seem to be the general consensus that the Q2 report will be easily spun into more doom and gloom by the shorts. So...I assume it is relatively certain that the FUD will continue to run thick and fast at least until October when the Q3 report hopefully shows undeniable positive news. (Not that that will make a difference to the shorts.) That's a long time for the stock to tank.

I really hate this crap.

Dan

Welcome to TSLA
 
A couple of thoughts from this weekend ...

I have two family members who are both on the list for Model 3s, one is in his 40's and the other is in her 70's. I was talking to both over the weekend as they were mulling over their decision to go through with the purchase and both had comments that I found curious. Timeline, quality and tax incentives were the main issues .... since they are both interested in the extended range batteries I told them the timeline is pretty short at this point, from what I understand the web shows 1-3 months and people are reporting getting their cars sooner than that. The bigger issue is quality, both had concerns which I think are totally unfounded .... they asked what I thought .... I don't have one but I know people that do and I've yet to hear anything less than stellar reviews from those that own the car ... in addition the reviews from various publications speak volumes about how great the Model 3 is. I sent both of them the WSJ review of the performance model and while they are not interested in that model I believe it should alleviate any concerns regarding build quality. Finally both were pretty unsure about the tax credits as to how much and how they are applied, now IMHO they should be better informed if they bothered to put $1k down on the car, I would think they would be following the progress and learning everything they can but alas they did not and I can imagine there are many more like them. My conclusion is that Tesla needs to do a MUCH better job educating their potential buyers ... at least have a "Tax Credit" tab on the website that allows you to put in your delivery zip to see what you are entitled to get. Put some of the reviews on the site ... and get more specific about the models for lay persons ... what they do a good job of is telling everyone what 0-60 speed is .... many of us (including myself) could really give a crap about that. It's fast enough.

Elon wants the model 3 to be a car for the masses, well then promote what the masses care about. Does anyone know what 0-60 in a Toyota Camry is like ? NO because no one who buys one cares. HOW about test drives available at EVERY location .... the masses are not used to buying a car without the test drive. Now you can say these people put money down and they are ready but in my experience many people will be nervous about placing the actual order without driving the car which is what you are asking as test drives for Model 3 are not readily available, I'm sure in this case having my relatives take a test drive would seal the deal. It's beyond stupid not to at least have the test drives for those that have been on the waiting list .... I'd have 2-3 model3s at every location and hire a small staff just to do test drives .... period. Yes I understand they don't need to "sell" the car at this point but I do think they need to close the deal with people on the list and this is a big deal for those who don't follow the companies every move like many on this forum do.

I think Tesla is so concerned with manufacturing that they are dropping the ball in terms of marketing , even when an Apple product is not ready it is in the store for people to get their hands on and play with as this helps build excitement and solidify purchase decisions. Finally, there is a lot of bull$#@$ with this company in terms of press and the internet ... every crash, fire and problem is magnified to a very unfair level as we all know ... having great product demos in stores (test drives) will really go a long way ....

BTW, I just signed up for a model 3 test drive .... let's see how long it takes. I'm betting I'll get one pretty quick because I live in Burbank and there is a Tesla store right here which I hear is stocked with Model3s but many around the country will not have it so easy.

1) They are working on getting test drives in place. How quickly they do that is a balancing act because every test drive car is a car not going to the customer (edit: until later...).

2) Couldn't agree with you more on the tax credit. They should be using all channels possible to make it clear that time is EXTREMELY limited to order and still get the full tax credit. They have majorly dropped the ball here. Hopefully they have at least put some signs & materials in their stores explaining the urgency on that front. (Edit: They don't have any mention of it on their landing page. I think this is a mistake)
 
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My concern isn't with one memo to one company but the apparent trend for the stock to reflect ANYTHING negative and it's reluctance to recognize anything positive.

San

I saw a documentary on PBS a few years ago concerning securities markets and human psychology.

Average human feels fear of loss 2x as much as happiness from gain.

I believe this is why “news” items that feed uncertainty have disproportionate effect, and the liberal media is all too happy to splash the worst headlines possible in order to get clicks/views.
 
I saw a documentary on PBS a few years ago concerning securities markets and human psychology.

Average human feels fear of loss 2x as much as happiness from gain.

I believe this is why “news” items that feed uncertainty have disproportionate effect, and ALL media is all too happy to splash the worst headlines possible in order to get clicks/views.

Fixed it for ya.
 
Naive question from a frustrated fan and investor.

It seem to be the general consensus that the Q2 report will be easily spun into more doom and gloom by the shorts. So...I assume it is relatively certain that the FUD will continue to run thick and fast at least until October when the Q3 report hopefully shows undeniable positive news. (Not that that will make a difference to the shorts.) That's a long time for the stock to tank.

I really hate this crap.

Dan

You are right that the FUD will continue, hammering the stock down probably to the mid/low 200’s. Then on undeniable good news it will reverse to end up somewhere in the 300’s. A new ATH will take about a year from now. The next major lift into the 400’s probably not until 2020.

Anybody’s guess, but that’s mine for now, based on what I’m seeing how the market reacts to the FUD.

Edit: additional observation: it’s going the way Morgan Stanley predicted a while ago in their note “where will the stock go from here”. Adam Jonas stated in March for second half of this year, it will go either up to $400 or down to $200. He believed down to $200 more likely and it seems that’s where we are heading.
 
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Why in the world is the stock going down? What is happening?
You're behind the times. The stock is going up! About $9 since it hit its low of $292.86.

Today is the result of FUD from the Wall St. Journal, echoed by pretty much everybody. Elon has tweeted something in response but it looks more like confirmation than denial. If I don't understand what he tweeted is supposed to mean, then it's certainly useless for anybody in the media.
 
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I have posted this a few places. Specifically about Tesla's cash position:

Cash position will never be worse then it was 4 weeks ago. Going forward, it gets better every day. Did Tesla go bankrupt 4 weeks ago? Did I miss that?
I don't think that's correct. Looking over the financial estimate from @luvb2b, "Cash & Eq End" is estimated to drop about $500M from Q2 to Q3. The net change in cash will be less negative than Q2, but the actual cash on hand will be lower.
 
You're behind the times. The stock is going up! About $9 since it hit its low of $292.86.

Today is the result of FUD from the Wall St. Journal, echoed by pretty much everybody. Elon has tweeted something in response but it looks more like confirmation than denial. If I don't understand what he tweeted is supposed to mean, then it's certainly useless for anybody in the media.
Its not going up across the past month.
 
About the one WSJ positive article/review by Dan Neal, who got bashed for it so much that he deleted his Twitter account:
WSJ now made sure that that one article is no longer available for the open public.
Its attached. Could anyone who has more influence than me make it available for the public again?

Mod: copyrighted material deleted. --ggr.
 
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About the one WSJ positive article/review by Dan Neal, who got bashed for it so much that he deleted his Twitter account:
WSJ now made sure that that one article is no longer available for the open public.
Its attached. Could anyone who has more influence than me make it available for the public again?
It is available. I am able to access it even without logging in.

WSJ uses some heuristics to decide whether or not to show the full article to non-subscribers. They only show it if they think the visitor is likely to subscribe in the future.
 
You're behind the times. The stock is going up! About $9 since it hit its low of $292.86.

Today is the result of FUD from the Wall St. Journal, echoed by pretty much everybody. Elon has tweeted something in response but it looks more like confirmation than denial. If I don't understand what he tweeted is supposed to mean, then it's certainly useless for anybody in the media.

What is unclear with that message?

EM: "Only costs that actually apply to Q3 & beyond will be counted. It would not be correct to apply historical cost savings to current quarter."

Its a crystal clear statement. Every Journalist having a hard time to understand the content should resign right away!
 
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