TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Up to Elon & Team to disprove the skeptics, who have so far been 100% right on Model 3 ramp. It really is shameful.

They don’t have to prove anything in my books, skeptics gonna be skeptics even when you shove the evidence down their throats. I’m still hearing about how EVs won’t ever be viable vehicles until they can go a bajillion miles on a single charge and then recharge in 15 seconds. Heck, I’m still hearing how Model S is vaporware.

You’re still new here, but people said the same thing about the S and X launch. I’ve seen this movie before and I’m quite certain the ending doesn’t change on this viewing either: we win.

What’s shameful to me is the armchair quarterbacks thinking they’re in some sort of position to be critical of the people working their pootooties off trying to change the world for all our benefits, while they recline in their laz-i-boys, crunch some numbers and try to make money off others hard work.

Hey, if the shoe doesn’t fit then dont try and cram it on your foot. K? But if it does, I hope you get bunions.

It's hard to fathom that the potential of Elon being awarded tens of billions of dollars is even on the table right now as this nonsense continues. The Board should delay the vote until at least 5,000 per week is achieved, sustainably, with none of the "burst rate" crap. If he can grow the market cap 10x from that, then fine, but the starting point should not be less than 20% ramp speed of what was originally predicted.

*vigorous eyeroll*. The target is $600B. Doesn’t matter if the starting point is 60B or 52B or zero.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah, I was thinking this delay in production ramp is quite a big deal and that Elon probably should just take responsibility for it. Sure, the supplier dropped the ball, but...

OMG! You all need to go have a vacation for awhile or something. Elon already took responsibility last ER. Does he need to send you all a hunk of flesh? Why do you keep harping? It doesn’t change anything and won’t change anything.

In the meantime they’ve been working to fix things and get on track. I apologize on behalf of Elon and the 30,000 employees that the resolution isn’t implementable in the next hour and thus to your liking.

And no, it doesn’t appear - still - that there will be a COO any time soon and now not even a replacement for Jon McNeil.

There sure can’t be any argument about money being the root of all evil, changing people in unpleasant ways etc...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The fact that he talks about how other automakers do not see the manufacturing efficiencies around air drag, when he can't produce even 20% of his own goal and at the rate others are manufacturing today, is baffling. He seems completely detached from today's reality.

I actually don't find his talk baffling, even given current production problems. This is par for the course.

Much the same was said about Elon's goals for SpaceX and lowering the $/kg to orbit. Many people in the Aerospace industry scoffed at SpaceX using off-the-shelf parts, and few thought that landing a booster was even possible. People wondered if SpaceX could even reach a launch cadence that would allow it to rival established companies and veteran state-sponsored space programs around the world.

List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches - Wikipedia

It took awhile, but SpaceX really delivered in a big way in 2017.

Where Tesla is concerned, I understand that customers are upset about delayed delivery, and investors are demanding results. If I had been in Elon's shoes, I never would have publicly pushed up start of Model 3 deliveries so quickly.

As I've written in other posts, Tesla went from Model 3 Release Candidate to Start of Production in 4 months. This is absurdly rushed by industry standards, especially for a mass market car. Honda's lead time for the 2018 Accord was 15-17 months between Release Candidate testing and start of production.

They basically tried to go to Accord-level mass production in 25% of the time, and that's just not going to happen. Even if Tesla can get all its stuff together, the rest of the supply chain likely cannot all keep up. Mid-2018 was always what I felt was the most realistic timeframe for Tesla to get everything together. That's still my target.

If Tesla continues to ramp, I think we'll start to see better quarterly results in early May, and then in early August. As shareholders, the only option is to be patient, or bail if there's no patience left.

 

[Starno]

OMG! You all need to go have a vacation for awhile or something. Elon already took responsibility last ER. Does he need to send you all a hunk of flesh? Why do you keep harping? It doesn’t change anything and won’t change anything.

In the meantime they’ve been working to fix things and get on track. I apologize on behalf of Elon and the 30,000 employees that the resolution isn’t implementable in the next hour and thus to your liking.

And no, it doesn’t appear - still - that there will be a COO any time soon and now not even a replacement for Jon McNeil.

There sure can’t be any argument about money being the root of all evil, changing people in unpleasant ways etc...

That's what happens when people are affected by short term market action.

When it goes up, they're happy. When it goes down, it's the end of the world.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's what happens when people are affected by short term market action.

When it goes up, they're happy. When it goes down, it's the end of the world.

From where I stand, they get what they deserve; good or bad.

 

[Lessmog]

That's what happens when people are affected by short term market action.

When it goes up, they're happy. When it goes down, it's the end of the world.

Where I come from we used to have a saying: When the crib is empty, horses will bite.
I have seen that and been affected, even by a good friend, and totally out of my control.
So I know where my sympathies belong in this case.

 

[DaveT]

OMG! You all need to go have a vacation for awhile or something. Elon already took responsibility last ER. Does he need to send you all a hunk of flesh? Why do you keep harping? It doesn’t change anything and won’t change anything.

In the meantime they’ve been working to fix things and get on track. I apologize on behalf of Elon and the 30,000 employees that the resolution isn’t implementable in the next hour and thus to your liking.

And no, it doesn’t appear - still - that there will be a COO any time soon and now not even a replacement for Jon McNeil.

There sure can’t be any argument about money being the root of all evil, changing people in unpleasant ways etc...

Um, so we aren’t allowed to be critical of the company when they make mistakes? Or should we just blindly be followers and cheerleaders no matter what?

 

[Starno]

Um, so we aren’t allowed to be critical of the company when they make mistakes? Or should we just blindly be followers and cheerleaders no matter what?

What matters is the action they're taking. No amount of talking will ramp the M3. Only actions.

It would be cool if some people instead of focusing on what Tesla said or didn't say. Focused on what Tesla did or did not. In terms of action.

IMO, they might have said some wrong things (thus the 8k to correct), but in the actions they're taking, they're doing what it takes.

 

[Lessmog]

Um, so we aren’t allowed to be critical of the company when they make mistakes? Or should we just blindly be followers and cheerleaders no matter what?

Are we really into that binary reality? Either filthy rich or sleeping on cardboard in the street?
Thanks but no thanks.
To me both of these posters provide valuable input, which I try to evaluate wisely. Sometimes it works out, sometimes not so much, sometimes an outside event throws the chessmen on the floor -- but it's always my responsibility to look after my own money.
Good luck to all.

EDIT: Agree with Starno also.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Yes, thanks. Typo. Or maybe it's when I think Tesla will be reaching those goals.

DaveT, I have been valuing your contributions since I started reading TMC back in September 2012. And your Home newsletter is very informative and a must read for any Tesla enthusiast. You are not afraid to tell both sides of the story and call out Tesla for missteps.

There is enough erroneous news on Tesla, vast majority intentional, so make sure your feelings don't get in the way of facts. In your Why is TSLA getting beat up so much more than the rest of the market? teslaweekly.com, please correct your statement. "While Elon Musk affirmed Tesla’s goals of reaching 2500 Model 3 cars/week by end of Q2 and 5000 Model 3 cars/week by end of Q3..." Correct is Q1/Q2. Whether Elon and Tesla'can pull this off....well, we'll find out in a few months, however with the release of the 8k I have my money with TSLA.

 

[phil0909]

I'll just point out the InsideEV's estimates have proven to be low for the first two months of a quarter, and they always play catchup later.

How has this been proven? How can it possibly be proven, when Tesla releases only quarterly numbers? How could anyone outside Tesla ever know for sure how many US deliveries Tesla has in a given month?

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I am unaware of any proof. Would appreciate any link or specifics, if you can recall them.

 

[sweter]

As I've written in other posts, Tesla went from Model 3 Release Candidate to Start of Production in 4 months. This is absurdly rushed by industry standards, especially for a mass market car. Honda's lead time for the 2018 Accord was 15-17 months between Release Candidate testing and start of production.

They basically tried to go to Accord-level mass production in 25% of the time, and that's just not going to happen. Even if Tesla can get all its stuff together, the rest of the supply chain likely cannot all keep up. Mid-2018 was always what I felt was the most realistic timeframe for Tesla to get everything together. That's still my target.

Call me ignorant but I don't see how time between RC and start of production correlate to speed of ramp. If they started production in mid 2018 then we would be even more behind and financially risky.

The only thing which this time can affect is quality of build which is fine from what we've seen.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I actually don't find his talk baffling, even given current production problems. This is par for the course.

Much the same was said about Elon's goals for SpaceX and lowering the $/kg to orbit. Many people in the Aerospace industry scoffed at SpaceX using off-the-shelf parts, and few thought that landing a booster was even possible. People wondered if SpaceX could even reach a launch cadence that would allow it to rival established companies and veteran state-sponsored space programs around the world.

List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches - Wikipedia

It took awhile, but SpaceX really delivered in a big way in 2017.

Where Tesla is concerned, I understand that customers are upset about delayed delivery, and investors are demanding results. If I had been in Elon's shoes, I never would have publicly pushed up start of Model 3 deliveries so quickly.

As I've written in other posts, Tesla went from Model 3 Release Candidate to Start of Production in 4 months. This is absurdly rushed by industry standards, especially for a mass market car. Honda's lead time for the 2018 Accord was 15-17 months between Release Candidate testing and start of production.

They basically tried to go to Accord-level mass production in 25% of the time, and that's just not going to happen. Even if Tesla can get all its stuff together, the rest of the supply chain likely cannot all keep up. Mid-2018 was always what I felt was the most realistic timeframe for Tesla to get everything together. That's still my target.

If Tesla continues to ramp, I think we'll start to see better quarterly results in early May, and then in early August. As shareholders, the only option is to be patient, or bail if there's no patience left.

I hope that you prove correct, because as far as I can tell, Tesla has not been getting as much attention from Elon as SpaceX.

 

[Krugerrand]

Um, so we aren’t allowed to be critical of the company when they make mistakes? Or should we just blindly be followers and cheerleaders no matter what?

Nope, didn’t say that.

You aren’t simply being critical of a mistake. You’re accusing Elon of not taking responsibility, which he did months ago and you know that. You’re piling on for the sake of piling on. You’re behaving as though you’re new to Tesla and don’t know how this goes based on historical data, common sense and the like. You’re working yourself and others up over spilled milk instead of offering an investment solution moving forward.

Secondarily there is a way to present criticism so it doesn’t sound like sour grapes. Let me give you an example from a generally positive soul, follower and cheerleader of Tesla and all those human beings involved; ‘Well crap! That sucks balls that Tesla hasn’t been able to resolve the ramp issues at Gigafactory yet. It’s too bad they didn’t babysit that supplier more closely as should be standard company procedure, because my options just took a kick in the (insert critter of correct size) nuts. It’s my hope they don’t drop that ball again, but I’ll be better prepared next time just in case they repeat the mistake. If they don’t resolve the issue in such and such period if time this is the effect it may have on the bottom line and SP etc...

 

[DaveT]

DaveT, I have been valuing your contributions since I started reading TMC back in September 2012. And your Home newsletter is very informative and a must read for any Tesla enthusiast. You are not afraid to tell both sides of the story and call out Tesla for missteps.

There is enough erroneous news on Tesla, vast majority intentional, so make sure your feelings don't get in the way of facts. In your Why is TSLA getting beat up so much more than the rest of the market? teslaweekly.com, please correct your statement. "While Elon Musk affirmed Tesla’s goals of reaching 2500 Model 3 cars/week by end of Q2 and 5000 Model 3 cars/week by end of Q3..." Correct is Q1/Q2. Whether Elon and Tesla'can pull this off....well, we'll find out in a few months, however with the release of the 8k I have my money with TSLA.

Thanks for the correction. Just edited.

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA ended Wednesday @ $345. Just after the release of Q4 ER/CC results the mood on TMC ranged from "meh" to "high enthusiasm" with mostly a very positive outlook. Personally my takeaway was a cautious positive. Not one poster forecasted the 15% drop in TSLA (nor the 10% drop in the major market indexes). Very surprised with all the Tesla bashing here on TMC the last couple of days. If the TSLA stock price affects your belief in Tesla as a company, then perhaps you may wish to consider your position. Many bulls got burned last week, me included. However, I remain invested for the long term in TSLA and can't seem to find a better place to put my money.....helping to change the World and all that, yes I still believe that even after this most recent drop. The 10 year bull market for most all asset classes is showing weakness, and this trend may continue for some time. IMO five years from now, $300 or $350 will be irrelevant, like whether you bought shares at $30 or $35. In the meantime, who knows? Live/invest within your means. The future is exciting. Cheers all.
Daniel
EDIT

 

[ggr]

True, but this is more of a reflection of how Tesla does production and deliveries throughout the quarter. They basically clear the decks at the end of the prior quarter with most of the deliveries late in the quarter hitting at the same time because of how they queued up production and shipping so that cars are for Europe and China first, then the East Coast, then finally the West Coast so that basically the bulk of the vehicles are being delivered in the last month of the quarter. They produce cars from farthest to closest so that back loads deliveries. This has a much smaller impact on Model 3 as all the cars are being delivered in the US, though there is till an impact from East Coast vs West Coast, but I expect that lag to be much smaller then China and Europe. I would imagine that the InsideEV numbers are fairly accurate, but does not include cars in transit and also the plant was shut down for the first week. This could account for as many as another 1800 cars.

Also, inside EVs numbers show that Tesla had its best Jan ever by about 2x the number of deliveries and dominated deliveries for all EVs by a very large margin. This does not even take into consideration the ASP, which is probably 2-3x the average of the top 5 Evs that are not Tesla's on that list. I expect this trend to continue and to expand quickly to 3x, 4x, 5x and so on. At some point in the near future the 3 Tesla models should double all other models combined, then all other models combined comparing 1 Tesla year to the last 10 years for all other EVs and so on and so on.

But we're talking about Model 3 here, all of which are going to the US at the moment.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, I was thinking this delay in production ramp is quite a big deal and that Elon probably should just take responsibility for it.

I think he did.
Elon:

So, I wouldn't read too much into the day-to-day battles of this or that. But I'll give you the color, but don't read too much into it. Yes. There are four zones in module production. Module production is fundamentally the limiting factor on Model 3 output, which is ironic since battery modules really should be the thing we're best at.

And I think in part we were probably a little over-confident, a little complacent in thinking that this is something we know and understand. And put a lot of attention on other things and just got too comfortable with our ability to do battery modules because we've been doing that since the start of the company.

 

[Reciprocity]

Elon's has never been shy about announcing progress, wonder why he won't reveal current production numbers?

Shrug.. 2500/w Q1 and 5000/w Q2 was reaffirmed. I guess they thought that was enough. Today's rate is less important then hitting real milestones.

 

[ggr]

How has this been proven? How can it possibly be proven, when Tesla releases only quarterly numbers? How could anyone outside Tesla ever know for sure how many US deliveries Tesla has in a given month?

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I am unaware of any proof. Would appreciate any link or specifics, if you can recall them.

There was a detailed discussion just a few weeks ago. I tried to find it but there's a lot happening in this forum, so I couldn't. Perhaps one of the people who posted the marked-up table of InsideEVs numbers could chime in again.