First of all, he's assuming Elon didn't lie. Most of us here are in the camp that Elon doesn't lie.
...
Nope, he doesn't lie.
However, he
1) hyperbilizes
2) when going gets tough, and plans misfires, he's presented things in the most flattering light, with the language that is technically correct, yet essentially misleading. I haven't seen this much lately, but he's done it through Model X ramp-up (e.g. 'we have exited quarter at 2000 cars/week', which was really 30 cars on the last day, or something similar; I'm paraphrasing, for real example pls. check statement in the Jan '16 for how many MX were produced in Q4 '15 and compare with Q1 '16 output). I have no doubt that this is out of the best intentions and because he thinks problem will be solved in the next two weeks, and hence statement will hold true, but...
3) in general is overtly optimistic and makes logical leaps that in retrospect are hard to justify - this plays mostly in terms of time, because he rarely, if ever, truly fails.
These are the things that look like unbridled optimism from the viewpoint of someone with great amount of goodwill, and look like lies for those with ill-will. So yeah, he doesn't lie, but world is not black and white, so I'd caution for more nuanced interpretation of his statements.
In this particular case, I'm wondering if he had chat with Larry, and Larry after few glasses of wine said 'Yeah, Elon, we could definitely do that!', and few other friends also said 'of course we could raise $40B, world is flush with cash' or something like that, and that was his basis for 'financing secured' statement. Remember: best intentions, he thinks (and likely can) raise money, even-though he has just expression of interest. And then, FT article about Saudi's investment come up, SP starts spiking, and he felt forced to come out in front of rapid price appreciation, as his offer (he probably thinks) wouldn't stretch much past $420, and he needs it to look good to succeed. Remember, higher price means higher payout, but also higher percentage of stockholders will want to be cashed out, so amount of money that's needed probably grows exponentially with the price, until it flattens when all stakeholders but most ardent ones are exhausted. BTW, I don't know something like this is the case, but from my observation of Elon in the last three years, I consider it possibility (with significant, non-zero chances).
Zach, I was wondering if I should write above diatribe, as I'll collect bunch of disagreements, and I too, like to be liked
. However, I though it's important that
you specifically understand other points of view, as you're relatively new and powerful voice and have reach well outside of these walls.
