Returns on the stock market work in a compounded fashion : 100% over 10 years is barely 7% annualized returns :
1000 x 1,07^10 = 1967.
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Returns on the stock market work in a compounded fashion : 100% over 10 years is barely 7% annualized returns :
1000 x 1,07^10 = 1967.
Unless I'm mistaken, it's 7.17735% growth pa to achieve 100% in 10 years - don't forget it's compound...
Friends, it really does not matter at all if we talk about 7% return or 10% in that context!
Lets not overlook the forest with all the trees in front of us .....
No offense!
None taken, just rare for me to be able to make a factual comment in this thread...
Coming back to your argument, though, that doubling the SP would still bring better returns than avergae. This may be so, or there abouts, but it would either represent and abject failure by Telsa OR the other motor manifacturers would have stepped-up their game with compelling, well priced electric cars and the necessary supporting infrastructure.
I see neither of these as likely without a black-swan event.
I'd posit there are a few members who are not bothered at all being consistently wrong, because they value maximizing the attention of other members far more than contributing positively or gaining some respect for the quality of their postings. Such members rarely if ever feel embarrassment at being wrong. The more wrong they are the more they get the attention they crave.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Isn't it a little unfair to invoke volatility when you're cherry picking the worst case scenario? Isn't volatility meant to augment a medium estimate with extreme potentials on both sides? the whole reason of tolerating volatility in TSLA is that there is a potential for a 10X return in 10 years, so just picking the worst case seems to be ignoring the reward and just focusing on the risk.
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johnnybgood888
Member
I think it's a bit unfair to lump TT007 with bears who are knowingly spreading FUD to try and get the stock price to tank. They come from a place of lies and deceit to make money for themselves or their bosses.
TT007's ultra bullishness can mislead others some times, but I've never gotten the feeling that he is anything but sincere about what he believes in and comes from a place of trying to help others get on the TSLA train before it is too late.
One should never take TT's comments (or anyone else's for that matter) as an advise when playing short term options, as I don't believe anyone can predict TSLA's price movement at this point in time, there are too many unknowns. But as long term advise, I think TT will be proven right. I think we all believe, like TT does, that TSLA will make us all fabulously wealthy, the question is just when.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I sold couple of covered calls for June, $430 strike price.
I hope they get assigned.
I did it to provoke market to 'punish' me!
Selling covered calls on high grow stocks has been the most consistent way I got screwed up in the past...
I hope they get assigned.
I did it to provoke market to 'punish' me!
Selling covered calls on high grow stocks has been the most consistent way I got screwed up in the past...
ruralectric
Member
johnnybgood888
Member
We appreciate you trying to manipulate the market gods to push the price higher for the rest of us. You truly are the hero we don't deserve!
I sold april 405 and 410 calls today, I also sold april 350 puts last week which I'm continuing to hold, if things start to move in an unexpected fashion I'll start to reposition. For now, I'm much happier than I was a week ago.
Also, when we hit the fib today I sold all of my April and June calls. I may come to regret it next week but I've been hammered severely on options recently. I told myself I'd sell all of my non J20s before earnings and make a decision afterwards. Instead I got greedy and held almost everything. At this point I'd rather kick myself for making less than take the max loss again. GL to all of my fellow longs, I hope we find a way to make TT007 right for once.
bdy0627
Active Member
I sold about 1/3 of my April calls today and bought shares. I've decided to be less greedy on this climb.I sold april 405 and 410 calls today, I also sold april 350 puts last week which I'm continuing to hold, if things start to move in an unexpected fashion I'll start to reposition. For now, I'm much happier than I was a week ago.
bdy0627
Active Member
Totally agree. I was slowly selling on the way up on our last climb when that correction hit. Even though I had sold some of my calls, I was still holding too many March calls that got annihilated. Not this time. Selling calls and converting to shares earlier this time. I'm ok giving up some gains to avoid that brutal ride down while holding calls.
johnnybgood888
Member
I'm holding some Jan 2019 $500 calls that are down about 50% from when I bought them mid last year. Do you suggest that I take the loss and get out of them, or continue to hold hoping for a miracle comeback? I would roll them forward, but unfortunately, I'm completely out of powder and I do not want to get deeper into Margin after what happened the last 2 weeks.
johnnybgood888
Member
Honestly Johnny, I'm in no position to give advice. I've lit more money on fire than most, when things are working I feel brilliant, when they arent.. well, obviously Elon is an idiot.
All jokes aside, I have a very bullish bias. When it comes to TSLA experience has taught me that I don't always see things clearly. I'm optimistic for a big move that feels as though its been a long time coming. However, I think we will need some indications that the ramp is progressing or another significant positive for anything bananas. We've had a big run up to this point (back near pre ER levels) and I'm liquidating because of technicals (and fear.) I am still holding J19 400s (far far too many) which are underwater. Theres a reasonable chance we hold these levels and continue to move up at a brisk pace, but I don't feel secure with my J19 400s and consider them a gamble.
You have to make your own judgement calls with your money. Ultra bulls like TT007 and others will tell you that your calls are a slam dunk, I would be quite nervous, especially if the position is significant to you. But I'm also a faceless person on an investor forum with the avatar of a dummy driving through space.
Good luck, I hope things work out with your positioning. Keep us updated.
johnnybgood888
Member
Thank you Tenable, that was a terrifically level headed post by you! It is frustrating because we know eventually the share prices will get there, our timing has just sucked the last 7-8 months.Honestly Johnny, I'm in no position to give advice. I've lit more money on fire than most, when things are working I feel brilliant, when they arent.. well, obviously Elon is an idiot.
All jokes aside, I have a very bullish bias. When it comes to TSLA experience has taught me that I don't always see things clearly. I'm optimistic for a big move that feels as though its been a long time coming. However, I think we will need some indications that the ramp is progressing or another significant positive for anything bananas. We've had a big run up to this point (back near pre ER levels) and I'm liquidating because of technicals (and fear.) I am still holding J19 400s (far far too many) which are underwater. Theres a reasonable chance we hold these levels and continue to move up at a brisk pace, but I don't feel secure with my J19 400s and consider them a gamble.
You have to make your own judgement calls with your money. Ultra bulls like TT007 and others will tell you that your calls are a slam dunk, I would be quite nervous, especially if the position is significant to you. But I'm also a faceless person on an investor forum with the avatar of a dummy driving through space.
Good luck, I hope things work out with your positioning. Keep us updated.
Good luck to you and your holdings as well.
Honestly Johnny, I'm in no position to give advice. I've lit more money on fire than most, when things are working I feel brilliant, when they arent.. well, obviously Elon is an idiot.
All jokes aside, I have a very bullish bias. When it comes to TSLA experience has taught me that I don't always see things clearly. I'm optimistic for a big move that feels as though its been a long time coming. However, I think we will need some indications that the ramp is progressing or another significant positive for anything bananas. We've had a big run up to this point (back near pre ER levels) and I'm liquidating because of technicals (and fear.) I am still holding J19 400s (far far too many) which are underwater. Theres a reasonable chance we hold these levels and continue to move up at a brisk pace, but I don't feel secure with my J19 400s and consider them a gamble.
You have to make your own judgement calls with your money. Ultra bulls like TT007 and others will tell you that your calls are a slam dunk, I would be quite nervous, especially if the position is significant to you. But I'm also a faceless person on an investor forum with the avatar of a dummy driving through space.
Good luck, I hope things work out with your positioning. Keep us updated.
I liquidated all my jan19 600 calls a few weeks ago and reduced margin exposure as well as rolled some of it into jan 20 325 calls, took a 60% loss on the large position, but up 10% on the smaller position since then. Not an advice, more of a painful lesson .I am still holding jan19 400 calls as I assume they will go positive after the ramp up materializes in a more undeniable fashion. Each time I see some 3's on the street I am feeling better about that direction.
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