No doubt, but the more important question is whether Musk re-branks it Weyland-Yutani, Zorg, Tyrell or Wallace...
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
No doubt, but the more important question is whether Musk re-branks it Weyland-Yutani, Zorg, Tyrell or Wallace...
Esme Es Mejor
Member
I disagree. Doubling the market cap in 10 years would produce returns slightly lower than historical market averages, but we are not in an average context.
The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is currently over 25, versus a historical average of just over 15. High market P/E ratios have correlated with lower returns over the next 10 years. Correlation does not equal causation, but I find it convincing. Accordingly, I expect index returns of 3-5% (and possibly even negative) over the next 10 years. So, even a doubling of Tesla’s market cap over 10 years, while disappointing, would be well above the index returns I expect going forward.
Since that first tranche is the only that is arguably unfair to shareholders, and since it actually is fair when considered in the proper context, I voted FOR the compensation plan.
Edit: finished the post.
Last edited:
Esme Es Mejor
Member
... is a terrible measure of the actual risk involved in investing in a given company. Strongly recommend reading Taleb on this issue.
Every quarter we tend to hit certain SP range (300-350). More often than not there tends to be a discount on the SP after earnings. I waited for the pull back after earnings, and bought leaps at 305.
If you wanted to exit, I would wait till 350-360, and yes I think we will see that in 2-4 weeks.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I don’t think this is true. Suppose Tesla’s market cap in ten years is $100B, and at that time there are 200M shares outstanding. That means the share price is $500, and Elon gets to buy 1.66 million shares (approximately, I can’t remember the exact number) for $350/share for a pre-tax profit of about $250M.
You can still argue that is too much, but can you please try to use realistic numbers?
(Also, the discussion about whether this is a 10% or a 7% annual return is a bit silly, as the return would be much lower than that after accounting for dilution.)
Ulmo
Active Member
I agree for the next 3 to 5 years, possibly more. After that, I have no crystal ball.Do you know how many times we’ve heard ‘you’re ignoring the many companies that will come out with competent electric cars in the next half decade or so?’ No, of course you don’t and neither do we since we’ve lost count in the last decade or so.
Wake me up when they actually arrive, can be purchased in quantity and are actual head to head competition with Tesla vehicles. Themis means they better have similar performance metrics, aesthetics, pricing, options, charging rates, charging network, OTA updates, full home energy products/integration etc... Only then will we talk about ‘competition’.
I’ve mentioned this in the past as I credit TT for giving me the balls to go from <15% Tesla to nearly 80% mix. I have no bad intentions of him if that’s how you read my post.
Knowbody has but to be able to have a comparable car produced in masses on the road in 3-5 years reading the signs we would know who it is today.
Unfortunately I don't see anybody able to bring a profitable mass market car on the road in that price range with the specs of the M3 in the near future, say in the next 5 years. This includes battery production and supply, specs, design, demand, quality(!), Safety including AP, SC Network, TCO, OTU that are at least on the same level but to make the real different they need to be even ahead otherwise demand will be bad. Even worse I do hear the auto industry not recognizing this but just denying which makes me almost adding to the 5 years.
If we now consider that such a disruption is dynamic and not static and Tesla will continue to be better, faster, smarter and more cost competitive in the next 5 years than I am tempted to add another 5 years and am at a decade now.
Unfortunately I have to say because it would help us all to have serious competition and would create some more motivation for Tesla as well.
Maybe the future will prove me to be wrong but as of today I don't see a vehicle than is able to challenge the M3 in the next 10 years.
The curse of the prophet is he is always early. Predicting a massive wealth distribution and technological disruption takes balls and courage.
I have followed this forum (mainly TT007 and a few others) for a few years now. TT007 is my kind of crazy. Those of you who complain about him being early or wrong now will worship him when he is proven to be right.
This forum is incredible and I am extremely grateful for all the value you all have shared over the years. Peace, weatlh, and prosperity to all of you. Rant/gratitude practice over
I have followed this forum (mainly TT007 and a few others) for a few years now. TT007 is my kind of crazy. Those of you who complain about him being early or wrong now will worship him when he is proven to be right.
This forum is incredible and I am extremely grateful for all the value you all have shared over the years. Peace, weatlh, and prosperity to all of you. Rant/gratitude practice over
johnnybgood888
Member
I appreciate your clarification, Enzo!
I didn't necessarily read your post as having any bad intentions, but I have just been seeing quite a few posts lately having negative backlash against people like TT and VA and making an equivalency between them and the bears, just from opposite ends. They definitely deserve some criticism in what seems like blind optimism sometimes, but as I have said before, I think they come from a sincere place, as opposed to those who are trying to mislead and obfuscate.
I understand that it's human nature to want to blame our losses on someone, and I have definitely been guilty of that, but I have come to terms with the fact that ultimately, I'm responsible for pulling the triggers on my stock trades, and if they had worked out, I'm not rushing out the door giving a portion of that profit to TT and VA, why should they take the blame when they don't work out.
I truly enjoy the enthusiasm from TT and VA about Tesla, and like you, they were instrumental in convincing me to invest heavily in the company, not just from the standpoint of making a lot of money, but also proselytizing the EV mission and making our planet a better place for our children. I hope that the recent criticisms have not dampened their enthusiasm for the company, their mission, and also for this board. I hope they continue to post their thoughts here.
bdy0627
Active Member
Even though those options are way down and it's probably hard to sell them when they are down so much, you still want to ask the question of which options you want to be in at this point. If not those, then consider selling them and using the money to buy what you do want to be in given the circumstances. If you think we might be near a temporary high then it would be better to sell those now, before another drop. On the other hand, it seems pretty reasonable to expect the stock to be way up by late summer. You could ignore the short term volatility and just hold on to them. I would use a calculator like this to chart different options:
Long call calculator: Purchase call options
You can check gains (and losses) on different options assuming a stock price of something like $450 in August, or whatever you guess it may be. You could then go with the option that provides the most gain given those parameters. If it's not the J19 $500s, then you may want to sell them and use the money to go with something else. If you feel like TSLA is now up at a level where in the short term there is almost an equal risk of a rise vs a drop, then use caution with options. As you've found with the way OTM calls you have, it's best to be pretty conservative with options. You can do REALLY well when you buy them after a dip, but it's easy to regret buying them during a rise.
bdy0627
Active Member
So we ended the day a couple points below the 200 day moving average. What Fib extension did we touch?
I disagree. Most of us here are bulls. I have the majority of my net worth in TSLA now, I am not alone. My objection to TT007 isnt in his bullishness, or his long term outlook, its in his constant need to authoritatively talk about the short term at the worst times. I don't have the desire to find it, but at one point he was loading up in the 380s, I politely replied that to my eye the technicals didn't support his claim that we were about to move stratospherically. I asked that he present what he was seeing, as I am far from an expert and open to additional information. He responded only to claim a purchase of some YUGE amount and was wrong as usual.
This is the TT standard, not a one off event.
Tesla is a fantastic company, run by a great leadership team and houses some of the best talent in the world. None of that makes TT007 prophetic or a god. Hes on the right side of this investment, in every other way I find him difficult to appreciate.
Now these are just my feelings. People are welcome to feel otherwise. my .02 as always, not meant to be snippy or to be taken as advice.
johnnybgood888
Member
The Russian stuff certainly didnt help. But we barely wicked above the fib at 342.50 and moved down, which is what I and my friends that trade kind of expected. It feels natural and I wouldnt worry based on the movements today. But the market is fickle and unpredictable. Ive moved entirely into J20s, I ended up selling my J19 350s and 400s today around 338 and rolled them into a smaller number of J20s. It wasnt my original intent, but I am trying to be a hair more conservative than I have been in the past. Hopefully we get reasonable macros come Tuesday and move to retest the fib again.
Krugerrand
Meow
Yeah, I don’t have a crystal ball either but to match Tesla and become a specific competitor to them certain things have to be telegraphed by others; Gigafactories (yes, plural), installation of charging network or a partnership with Tesla for starters, OTA updates occurring in current ICE vehicles at the least, new vehicle platforms for pure EV not hybrids as well no more econoboxing or radical batmobile prototypes and a few other things.
So yeah, we’re going to know when someone comes onto the scene to be a true Tesla competitor without the aid of a crystal ball. Until then I remain unmoved and bored by what the rest of the industry claims is the next Tesla killer.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
We all expect Tesla to do well in the long term so I'm not sure why we would "worship" anyone for simply seeing the exact same long term possibilities we all do while being spectacularly wrong in the short term. He has no particular insight and it's a bit sad that some of you don't seem to realize that.
Tesla innovation pace has been very good these past 5 + years when they have needed to get biggest bang for the R&D dollar as possible.
If Musk is still driving the company after five years, we can anticipate faster, wider innovation with much larger available funds.
We are reaching a point soon at which even large companies with deep pockets will not be able to catch up with a resource unconstrained Tesla R & D. They may likely fall further behind. Technological momentum tends to continue once established unless company management decides to focus elsewhere and allow it to wither.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
