That's a scary thought. Would they really do that though? Surprise! You missed the boat! All options are now worthless.
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That's a scary thought. Would they really do that though? Surprise! You missed the boat! All options are now worthless.
Menifeer
Member
All terms of the deal will have to be disclosed (including record dates) prior to any shareholder vote.
yes, but will he be able to? i just don’t know. i try to plan for the worst.
i don’t mean options would be worthless, but they don’t have any voting right, nor corp action election eligibility. you need stock for those.
While true, my understanding is that the record date could be prior to the terms disclosure, even though the shareholder vote can’t be.
I think this logic makes sense only if all shareholders are ultimately forced to sell at 420. But the option to go private will be worth more than 420 to some of us, if this is the last chance to increase our position for the next 10 years, and maybe ever.
Do you not think that the calculus changes as the delisting approaches, and more and more people want to get in on the private boat before it sails with all our future profits?
I think that as the shares available to buy to get on the private boat get fewer and fewer, scarcity and FOMO will tempt more and more people and lead to panic buying, especially as they see the share price move up every day.
that’s true, but i think it’s possible record date may be prior to the announcement date for some event types (rights/entitlements for example, admittedly i don’t think this will be an entitlement type offer. but who knows)
Where are you taking numbers from? Bloomberg's 5300? They are not super accurate. They were reporting 5k at the start of Q3 when the volume was much lower.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Weakness today seems to have been caused by:
The WSJ and New York Times are both reporting their 'Saudi sources' are suggesting the deal isn't as sure as Musk is suggesting. They fail to mention that the Saudis would obviously not say anything that would cause the price to go up and in fact would say anything they can (through anonymous sources) to keep it as low as possible.
Yahoo decided to make the Azealia Banks claims their top Tesla story and 'Editor's Pick'. Of course they don't mention that Musk says he's never met her and that she's banned from twitter for doing stuff just like this in the past.
The WSJ and New York Times are both reporting their 'Saudi sources' are suggesting the deal isn't as sure as Musk is suggesting. They fail to mention that the Saudis would obviously not say anything that would cause the price to go up and in fact would say anything they can (through anonymous sources) to keep it as low as possible.
Yahoo decided to make the Azealia Banks claims their top Tesla story and 'Editor's Pick'. Of course they don't mention that Musk says he's never met her and that she's banned from twitter for doing stuff just like this in the past.
One thing: this relies on the timing of both the shorts covering and the longs selling lining up. If said longs sell *now* and the shorts don’t cover until right before closing, then you end up with much tighter supply vs demand.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
IMO you are misreading and misrepresenting Elon's August 13 update, he said nothing about how many investors "will be bought out", he said:
"My best estimate right now is that approximately two-thirds of shares owned by all current investors would roll over into a private Tesla."
Emphasis mine.
Such deals take time to finalize, and the composition of shareholders is not static.
Once more and more details are known about Tesla going private, investors who want to be part of TSLAP might be willing to pay more than $420 per share - especially after Q3 results.
Have you considered that shorts and these new investors will be competing for this limited and shrinking pool of 60 million shares?
Simple: because the price could breach $420 naturally, due to new investors and due to Q3 results.
That's not how the law of supply and demand works: Tesla shareholders are not limited to the current composition.
If only 50 million new investor shares are purchased over the next few months then the pool of "buyout shares" is reduced to 10 million shares.
Unless shorts cover, it's 35 million short shares competing for 10 million buyout shares, driving up the price in a short squeeze.
That's a fundamentally flawed conclusion resulting from the ridiculously flawed assumptions that the composition of shareholders is static and that the price cannot go beyond $420 before the deal ...
If Elon does it right then most of the 33% of current shareholders who won't be able to follow Tesla private will be bought out by new investors.
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I think this is just calm before the storm, since Tesla is working with Goldman , when Wall Street get involved, they always act on stock before information become public, I think on a blink of eye stock could run to 420.00, in a mean time stock will be stuck in a mud, short sellers has no courage to short stock at this price, new buyer won’t step in until some clarification happened. Only thing small investors could do is watch the technical of stock.
Bought out at what price? $420? Shorts will need to cover before then, so they may have a first pick at those 33%.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yes, as I said shorts covering before $420 would save at least some, but not all of them, some big shorts covering could trigger a squeeze in itself: daily volume based "days to cover" metrics are mostly bogus: true daily accumulation/distribution is about 1 million shares on average - higher rate would be noticed and would accelerate the short squeeze.
Even under this optimistic "slow short squeeze" scenario shorts would likely suffer heavy losses.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Careful, whoever is doing this has a lot of control over the TSLA stock price: I saw a very similar "fingerprint" in the price action that drove TSLA from $370 to $290 in July ...
(My hypothesis, based on no hard facts whatsoever, is that they were assuming based on the Q2 production update that Q2 results would be horrible due to artificially low deliveries and traded aggressively on that. That probably leveraged them up significantly and now they want out.)
We don't know how much dry powder they have left, nor whether they are trading on superior information.
Definitely not advice.
Reuters also saying same, but these stories always end with "... two sources familiar with the matter said." Always 2 people! Jerks
Ya I bought today at my awaited $352.50 and thought I was gifted until this afternoon. Gotta buy more I guess, taking my time from here on out. Meanwhile, I fixed an old bug in code today so it's a great day actually!
My wife just called me and couldn't find the M3 in the Intel lot, so she pressed Summons BLINDLY!
"Oh, there it is!"
OMG, it's got a horn! Everything going to be OK.
I think most bulls feel that $420 is too cheap. But to anyone planning on staying private, the buyout price doesn’t really matter because they’re not being bought out. The buyout price is really only important to people being forced to sell for whatever reason. If this is s big group, I expect the buyout price to come up a bit to be fair to them.
I credited the $370 to being artificially inflated by the Saudis buying 5% of the company.
Regardless, I'm actually hoping we get a bit more of a dip - I've got a buy set for $339
Today's volume was really low. There were minutes with less transactions than 5.
Low volume means even single retail transaction could move price up/down.
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