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Very good points. I agree. In the short term what I said I believe will be true because there are still lots of sellers. But give it another month or two, and what you're saying will almost certainly be true because of dwindling number of sellers.
By the way, I have to say you're my favorite new poster here, and one of my favorite posters here. I think your analysis is thoughtful and superb, and I want to thank you for your very knowledgeable and sharp contributions.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Bottom line
I will take the daily beating from $TSLA shorts as long as EMAs look good and trend is up and stay with J19 calls at least another 20 to 32 trading days
Let’s see who has the last laugh
I will take the daily beating from $TSLA shorts as long as EMAs look good and trend is up and stay with J19 calls at least another 20 to 32 trading days
Let’s see who has the last laugh
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
While it's an important question, I believe an even more important question is: "How many new investors is the impending Tesla IPO (Initial Private Offering) going to attract?"
I believe there are a lot of investors on the sidelines that have been scared away by the shorts, and a lot of events/forces that might activate them:
- better Q3 results,
- shorts covering will reduce FUD (they might still be negative about Tesla, but with the short position gone they will have new scams to promote),
- 50 thousand Teslas per quarter delivered to new, often wealthy owners widens the pool significantly,
- better Q4 results if we don't have a deal by 2019,
- with more Wall Street heavyweights now backing the deal, and better Q3/Q4 results, financial journalist sentiment might turn from negative to neutral as well.
- the inexorable rise of the stock price will convince people as well.
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Do you know how a civil servant (government employee) winks? Opens one eye.
It’s a joke, and that’s all. There are many many hardworking government employees around, at least in Canada which is my experience.
Ayup. There's exactly one place that terminology comes from, and it is credibility-destroying.
His tweetstorm today makes Musk's look positively banal. There's no reason [if he has a valid case] to be posting those photos, and many reasons to sit on them for the suit. The fact that he's spewing them publicly now tells me he has a terrible, no-good, rotten case.
And boy are the tweet responses fun.
Can we go back to wondering how many Model 3s are being produced per week? Or maybe arguing over when FSD will start hitting cars? This past week has been far too stressful.
As in SpaceX Elon supports investors not traders. It is obvious to me that investment to Elon means a mutual long term commitment not a short term gamble. Bull traders are just as likely to suffer as bear traders because he has no loyalty to the ones who have no loyalty to Tesla. Your short term gains do not matter in the company's mission.
I agree it seems like more than simple public-mindedness at this point. Mr. Tripp seems to have a grudge against Tesla for the way they treated him. Today's tweets appear to be more about retribution than public safety.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, agreed about the timeline.
I'm sure there's more negative events upcoming as well, which will have a magnified effect on the price:
- Q3 delivery guidance is low at 50-55k, maybe there's a good reason for that, for example battery module shortage. People expecting sustained 5k/week M3 production in Q3 might be disappointed.
- Shorts/bears seem to have a mole at the SEC, while the SEC seems to be turning a blind eye to the blatant illegal insider trading and market manipulation the "spike-seller" was performing on TSLA in the last couple of days apparently, probably with insider knowledge of the widening SEC probe.
- Shorts/bears also seem to have won the hearts and minds of the financial press corps, which damage and influence will take time to undo.
- While Tesla bears/shorts seem to be rather poor at math, logic and finance, they seem to have an incredible talent for just making stuff up and convincing easily swayed journalists that what they are saying makes total sense and is not self-serving slander of Tesla and Elon at all.
- Finally, and in admittedly related news, Grimes still hasn't managed to delete the Twitter app from Elon's phone. Efforts are still ongoing, I sincerely hope.
What a brutal week. I only ended up with fairly modest gains after having to bail early from my last two TSLA trades. Thought I’d have a good chance of riding them up to $400 but it wasn’t to be.
I wasn’t expecting this, but the near term chart is pointing to a ~ $323 bottom for me. Hoping to jump back in yet again around there. Absolutely nuts that I’m saying that after all the $420 privatization talk. Never would have guessed.
Agree with others that peak fud should once again be hit soon. Good luck to all.
I wasn’t expecting this, but the near term chart is pointing to a ~ $323 bottom for me. Hoping to jump back in yet again around there. Absolutely nuts that I’m saying that after all the $420 privatization talk. Never would have guessed.
Agree with others that peak fud should once again be hit soon. Good luck to all.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure does. But there is a different standard of behavior and integrity expected of the CEO of a large corporation, as opposed to some random guy. If Mr. Musk's defense is: "Hey, at least I'm not as bad as Martin Tripp!", that's not a great defense.
bdy0627
Active Member
This is so so true. Just watch the sentiment shift dramatically even here when the stock reverses and quickly climbs.
Ok, I'm caught up (had to actually work, I know right?).
Too much analytics I see. $25 Billion sounds about right. Waiting for production #s for now, that's all.
Might buy again tomorrow if it drops more. Could be last chance. I'll miss you guys too.
FUD works in our favor at this time.
Jerry's Advice, played in A. Good stuff outta that California
Lyrics
Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose,
You and me bound to spend some time wondering what to choose.
Goes to show, you don't ever know,
Watch each card you play and play it slow,
Wait until that deal come round,
Don't you let that deal go down, no, no.
I been gambling hereabouts for ten good solid years,
If I told you all that went down it would burn off both of your ears.
Goes to show you don't ever know
Watch each card you play and play it slow,
Wait until that deal come round,
Don't you let that deal go down, no, no.
Since you poured the wine for me and tightened up my shoes,
I hate to leave you sitting there, composing lonesome blues.
Goes to show you don't ever know
Watch each card you play and play it slow,
Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down.
Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down,
Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down,
Don't you let that deal go down, don't you let that deal go down.
Too much analytics I see. $25 Billion sounds about right. Waiting for production #s for now, that's all.
Might buy again tomorrow if it drops more. Could be last chance. I'll miss you guys too.
FUD works in our favor at this time.
Jerry's Advice, played in A. Good stuff outta that California
Lyrics
Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose,
You and me bound to spend some time wondering what to choose.
Goes to show, you don't ever know,
Watch each card you play and play it slow,
Wait until that deal come round,
Don't you let that deal go down, no, no.
I been gambling hereabouts for ten good solid years,
If I told you all that went down it would burn off both of your ears.
Goes to show you don't ever know
Watch each card you play and play it slow,
Wait until that deal come round,
Don't you let that deal go down, no, no.
Since you poured the wine for me and tightened up my shoes,
I hate to leave you sitting there, composing lonesome blues.
Goes to show you don't ever know
Watch each card you play and play it slow,
Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down.
Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down,
Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down,
Don't you let that deal go down, don't you let that deal go down.
This basically destroyed the bear case. He even added that he admire Elon for letting the small investors in the know. Apparently he doesn't think there will be any consequences at all.
On the other hand he also said the investigation may drag on for month...
bdy0627
Active Member
Agreed, but that's not very far below us. Nothing to sweat about for sure. If you are able to add heavily within 3% of the bottom I'd say you will do very well.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW. since bears/shorts seem to have at least one mole at the SEC, I believe the main goal of the "SEC probe" is not to get any "conviction" (a single freshman lawyer could make any charges against Elon to be laughed out of court), but:
- To create a well timed negative news cycle with drip-drip leaks about SEC investigation of Tesla,
- to create uncertainty about the going-private deal in the hope of making it fail due to lack of investor support,
- to set the stage for further regulatory and legal attacks against the deal,
- to subpoena highly confidential documents about the going-private negotiations, to use the information to perform insider trading, and/or to selectively release any portions that can be spun in a Tesla-negative way.
Just kidding!
It's obviously much more important for the SEC to investigate whether Elon tweeting to millions of investors who all receive it within a split second is legal public disclosure, and to investigate whether the belief of Elon that funding is "secured" for one of the hottest new companies on Earth, from Saudis who flew to Elon last year to convince him to allow them in, was an accurate word to use.
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Thanks! This gives me a new scenario.
Suppose every institution except Bailie Gifford dumps their shares (because private equity and public equity desks are separate, sigh) -- while 1/2 of all miscellaneous non-institutional investors stay in (because the other half have their money in Canadian RRSPs or equivalent). After accounting for the shares bought back by the short-sellers, that would require funding for 79.80 million shares, or about $33.5 billion. Again, if the Saudis can really buy up to ~20% (perhaps with nonvoting shares), Musk can swing the rest of the funding personally if need be.
(At Bailie Gifford, a small firm, public and private equity desks aren't separate, and their principal has said he wants his clients to keep their Tesla stock, which is why I figure they will keep theirs.)
This is basically the most expensive plausible scenario I can see. I figure at least half of non-institutional longs are both "true believers" and able to stay in.
My comment is that I think we should use Elon’s guess ($14.5B?) as the baseline with the error bars around that figure.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
My highly scientific* estimate is that ~50% of non-Elon shares will want or be forced to be bought-in at $420.
55%-60% at $450, and
60%-70% at $500.
All percents apply to non-Elon's shares.
*This estimate is scientific, because I used science a lot in the kindergarten, and have stayed close since. Am making it clear though, that no science** has been used or hurt in producing this particular estimate.
**I am actually surprisingly good in the 'invented statistics' field, i.e. these estimates should not be discounted just because they're invented out of thin air!
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