TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

I don't really see anything shockingly new in the article about Elon's work schedule in the article. If you've read the autobiography you'd expect nothing less. Having said that I also think this style if working is not sustainable on the long run. Or rather, he's been working like this for the past 10-15 years. How much of this can the human body and psyche take? I do consider Elon's health a risk to my TSLA investment. So for that reason I also hope they will find a COO.

But while I do not object to the articles conclusions and the way they describe how the "go private" thing went down is completely reasonable from what we saw, I do take issue with the absolutely ridiculous use of "people familiar with the matter". I have never seen an article like that before. 90% of the information is based on hearsay. The author may have talked to people who have talked to people.... but how are we supposed to trust the information is accurate and not just someone's interpretation of the situation.

To me, it's a clear case where I would have expecedt the NYT editors to step in and set the bar higher. This is "a novel based on real life events", not reporting.

 

[Tslynk67]

Didn’t catch-up with the 8 pages of postings yet, so apologies if this is already posted.

Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

 

[Johan]

So Elon gave them an interview and they quote maybe 4 lines from that interview and the rest is about drug, SEC and the twit according to sources familiar with the matter. This "Source" has more say in an Elon article than Elon.

And some board members have expressed concern not only about Mr. Musk’s workload but also about his use of Ambien, two people familiar with the board said.

But the Saudi fund had not committed to provide any cash, two people briefed on the discussions said.

Board members, blindsided by the chief executive’s market-moving statement, were angry that they had not been briefed, two people familiar with the matter said.

Some board members, however, have recently told Mr. Musk that he should lay off Twitter and focus on making cars and launching rockets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The S.E.C. investigation appears to be intensifying rapidly. Just days after the agency’s request for information, Tesla’s board and Mr. Musk received S.E.C. subpoenas, according to a person familiar with the matter.

But this has worried some board members, who have noted that sometimes the drug does not put Mr. Musk to sleep but instead contributes to late-night Twitter sessions, according to a person familiar with the board’s thinking. Some board members are also aware that Mr. Musk has on occasion used recreational drugs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Tesla executives have been trying for years to recruit a chief operating officer or other No. 2 executive to assume some of Mr. Musk’s day-to-day responsibilities, according to people familiar with the matter.

Also those two guys who are everywhere seem to have contributed a lot to this article too! Would sure like to know how they know so much that we don't, and are so willing to spill the beans to NYT. Sometimes it's just one guy, though, and sometimes an ill-defied number of people.

I've watched some TV legal dramas from the US. Is this where the defence attorney stands up and says: "Objection - hearsay!"?

Why not just publish the interview, which really is a scoop for NYT, instead of all these unsubstantiated allegations???

 

[RobStark]

90% of the information is based on heresy.

Maybe you should correct that to hearsay.

Lest Shorts accuse you of being an Orthodox-Fundamentalist Muskonian. LOL

 

[sundaymorning]

And some board members have expressed concern not only about Mr. Musk’s workload but also about his use of Ambien, two people familiar with the board said.

But the Saudi fund had not committed to provide any cash, two people briefed on the discussions said.

Board members, blindsided by the chief executive’s market-moving statement, were angry that they had not been briefed, two people familiar with the matter said.

Some board members, however, have recently told Mr. Musk that he should lay off Twitter and focus on making cars and launching rockets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The S.E.C. investigation appears to be intensifying rapidly. Just days after the agency’s request for information, Tesla’s board and Mr. Musk received S.E.C. subpoenas, according to a person familiar with the matter.

But this has worried some board members, who have noted that sometimes the drug does not put Mr. Musk to sleep but instead contributes to late-night Twitter sessions, according to a person familiar with the board’s thinking. Some board members are also aware that Mr. Musk has on occasion used recreational drugs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Tesla executives have been trying for years to recruit a chief operating officer or other No. 2 executive to assume some of Mr. Musk’s day-to-day responsibilities, according to people familiar with the matter.

Also those two guys who are everywhere seem to have contributed a lot to this article too! Would sure like to know how they know so much that we don't, and are so willing to spill the beans to NYT. Sometimes it's just one guy, though, and sometimes an ill-defied number of people.

I've watched some TV legal dramas from the US. Is this where the defence attorney stands up and says: "Objection - heresay!"?

Why not just publish the interview, which really is a scoop for NYT, instead of all these unsubstantiated allegations???

A dog familiar with the matter, a duck familiar... a bird familiar with the matter... a matter familiar with the matter... pure sensational journalism.

Most important quotes to me remains “shorts aren’t super smart” and “Tesla is now doing fine from a production standpoint.”

 

[Johan]

A dog familiar with the matter, a duck familiar... a bird familiar with the matter... a matter familiar with the matter... pure sensational journalism.

Most important quotes to me remains “shorts aren’t super smart” and “Tesla is now doing fine from a production standpoint.”

I agree! So in other words, the most important part of the artice are Elon statements about the shorts being in big trouble and Tesla doing fine when it comes to building cars, two people close to and familiar with the matter say. (You and me that is)

 

[mrdoubleb]

Maybe you should correct that to hearsay.

Lest Shorts accuse you of being an Orthodox-Fundamentalist Muskonian. LOL

Fixed, thanks! Won't change the shorts' opinion of me though.

Edit: wow I had some persistent autocorrect action going on. Took 2 tries to fix it. Kept changing back to heresy... maybe the universe is trying to tell me something.

 

[Johan]

Maybe you should correct that to hearsay.

Lest Shorts accuse you of being an Orthodox-Fundamentalist Muskonian. LOL

Thanks for another English lesson! Althoug come to think of it isn't it also in fact heresy, for those of us adhering to the One True Truth of Elonism?

(I made the same spelling error as mr doubleb)

 

[Matias]

You can spin it anyway you wan't, but I find that interview disturbing.

"At multiple points in an hourlong interview with The New York Times, he choked up"
--
Asked if the exhaustion was taking a toll on his physical health, Mr. Musk answered: “It’s not been great, actually. I’ve had friends come by who are really concerned.”

--
In the interview on Thursday, Mr. Musk alternated between laughter and tears.

--
He said he had been working up to 120 hours a week recently — echoing the reason he cited in a recent public apology to an analyst whom he had berated. In the interview, Mr. Musk said he had not taken time off of more than a week since 2001, when he was bedridden with malaria.

“There were times when I didn’t leave the factory for three or four days — days when I didn’t go outside,” he said. “This has really come at the expense of seeing my kids. And seeing friends.”

Mr. Musk stopped talking, seemingly overcome by emotion.

--

To help sleep when he is not working, Mr. Musk said he sometimes takes Ambien. “It is often a choice of no sleep or Ambien,” he said.

 

[trils0n]

You can spin it anyway you wan't, but I find that interview disturbing.

Spin it? All of that is classic Musk. Where you been?

He's choked up and almost cried on multiple video interviews over the years. Expected behavior.

Long work hours? Hes been doing that for at least 10-15 years. Expected.

Sleeping at work? Since Zip2. Expected.

Ambien? He's even tweeted about that. Lack of sleep? Again for 10-15 yrs. Expected.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I read that NY Times interview, it is indeed a really good and important read.

For Elon's sake, I do hope the board finds him a number 2, preferably a COO who can manage day-to-day operations of the company, before he works himself to death. It's fairly clear he doesn't plan on stopping as long as he feels he's the only one who can do it, so someone should stop him for his own health and well-being. 120 hour weeks is not healthy. I guess I'm surprised Grimes is OK with the way Elon treats himself.

If nothing else, I really hope we get Tesla private soon so Elon can finally get a good night's sleep. And maybe take a real vacation for the first time in nearly 2 decades apparently.

 

[Fact Checking]

I’m wondering one basic question; what is the motivation for possible buy out buyers for them to take Tesla private and pay 420 a share, when they can buy stocks from open markets with cheaper price?

It can’t be future control of Tesla, because Musk has said, he is not going to give anyone control.

Eli 5.

Buying on the open market can get very expensive, because:

• By buying you increase the price. For example the Saudis bought about 4-5% of Tesla in May and June. The price rose from $250 to $370. We don't know how much of the rise was due to the Saudis, but probably a fair chunk.
• Other big players notice and start buying too, further increasing the price. Smaller players notice. Momentum traders notice. People willing to sell notice and increase their price expectations.
• ~27% of the float is shorted, which diluted shareholders significantly and depressed the price. The stock didn't reach new all time highs for a year, despite improving fundamentals and a Model 3 ramp up risk that is largely behind Tesla. There's a lot of pent up demand for TSLA that is being suppressed. Price increases beyond a certain level will trigger heavy covering by shorts - further increasing the price.

Now imagine the Saudis would attempt to buy another 30% ... the share price would skyrocket. Not something they want.

With the $420 offer they'd get a nice chunk of Tesla from shareholders who cannot follow Tesla private. There's an estimated 50-60 million such shares right now. Trying to buy those shares on the open market would drive the price well over $420 even without all the special factors I listed above.

So yes, the $420 buyout offer makes sense.

 

[Matias]

To me personally that interview helped me to make my decision. I’ve been wondering, whether to increase my Tesla position or not. Now I know. I’m not going to buy more. Risk is too high.

 

[sundaymorning]

You can spin it anyway you wan't, but I find that interview disturbing.

"At multiple points in an hourlong interview with The New York Times, he choked up"
--
Asked if the exhaustion was taking a toll on his physical health, Mr. Musk answered: “It’s not been great, actually. I’ve had friends come by who are really concerned.”

--
In the interview on Thursday, Mr. Musk alternated between laughter and tears.

--
He said he had been working up to 120 hours a week recently — echoing the reason he cited in a recent public apology to an analyst whom he had berated. In the interview, Mr. Musk said he had not taken time off of more than a week since 2001, when he was bedridden with malaria.

“There were times when I didn’t leave the factory for three or four days — days when I didn’t go outside,” he said. “This has really come at the expense of seeing my kids. And seeing friends.”

Mr. Musk stopped talking, seemingly overcome by emotion.

--

To help sleep when he is not working, Mr. Musk said he sometimes takes Ambien. “It is often a choice of no sleep or Ambien,” he said.

Elon chokes up many times before when he talks about things that are dear to his heart. The first time he choked up was during an interview about Neil Armstrong being against SpaceX, and Elon’s reply to the interviewer was “that hurts, he’s the reason why we’re doing this..” video can be found online/YouTube.

The second time he choked up was when he was bidding farewell to Deepak and sending him into retirement. Video can also be found online/YouTube.

The third time I saw him choke up during an interview was about production of powerwalls/packs were slow to ramp, and that Australians were paying upwards of $1k a month on electricity. Elon’s response was “we’ll try better.” Also could be found online/YouTube.

There’s something you need to know about Elon, he’s a humanitarian/philanthropist, he has a big heart and he cares. Now putting that aside, the person who is “spinning” it is you, not Elon. I have no time to repond to your endless FUD so I’ll stop here.

 

[WarpedOne]

Carebears care, they really do.

 

[30seconds]

I love the idea that people think highly driven, accomplished CEO & entrepreneurs are all also totally well adjusted, balanced, zen like individuals in their personal lives.

It’s an exceptionally hard job.

Apparently Elon didn’t get the memo saying he was supposed to create the typical teflon image around his actual personality.

 

[RobStark]

I guess I'm surprised Grimes is OK with the way Elon treats himself.

It would be very difficult for a wife of 10+ years to harass Elon into working less than 80 hrs per week.

It is damn well impossible for a girlfriend of a few months.

BTW Grimes is also obsessed with her work and is a workaholic.

 

[Fact Checking]

I know he's under a ton of stress, but that stuff won't help.

Note that the NYT article is character assassination of the highest degree, after the rather accurate Wired article about Elon:

• The article is paraphrasing anonymous sources who are telling 90% public information.
• They are trying to put a wedge between Elon and board members - during a crucial corporate event...
• They are trying to attack Elon's competence, ostensibly through the mouth of anonymous board members - i.e. very close confidants of Elon.
• They know that Elon is probably going to read it, and they are trolling him for a Twitter answer.

The only Tesla board member I can imagine leaking like this is James Murdoch - but he is not member of the going-private committee that negotiates the deal.

The takeaway: Musk opponents went all-in to make the going-private buyout deal fail. I.e. they are really worried about Tesla going private.

I hope Elon ignores the article: the best answer would be to go private and to eventually launch Pravduh to fight incompetence and corruption in the media systematically.

 

[sundaymorning]

Note that the article is character assassination of the highest degree:

• The article is paraphrasing anonymous sources who are telling 90% public information.
• They are trying to put a wedge between Elon and board members - during a crucial corporate event...
• They are trying to attack Elon's competence, ostensibly through the mouth of anonymous board members.

The only Tesla board member I can imagine leaking like this is James Murdoch - but he is not member of the going-private committee that negotiates the deal.

The takeaway: Musk opponents went all-in to make the going-private buyout deal fail. I.e. they are really worried about Tesla going private.

I hope Elon ignores the article: the best answer would be to go private and eventually start Pravduh to fight corruption in the media systematically.

To tag along with what you said about shorts being worried... here’s a direct quote from Elon within the NYT article:

He [Elon] said he was bracing for “at least a few months of extreme torture from the short-sellers, who are desperately pushing a narrative that will possibly result in Tesla’s destruction.”

So here we have it, Elon knows the shorts are desperate.

 

[Fact Checking]

To tag along with what you said about shorts being worried... here’s a direct quote from Elon within the NYT article:

He [Elon] said he was bracing for “at least a few months of extreme torture from the short-sellers, who are desperately pushing a narrative that will possibly result in Tesla’s destruction.”

So here we have it, Elon knows the shorts are desperate.

Note that it's not just shorts:

• Labor rights movement liberals influenced by UAW (ICE automotive bed fellows) FUD against Tesla
• Conservatives influenced by old-energy (Koch brothers, etc.) FUD against Tesla,
• ICE competitors must be scared of a private Tesla which will be more opaque and less attackable through the capital markets,
• Shallow journalists who are misreading Elon the same way they were misreading Hillary Clinton: awkward geek introvert who cannot wait for an interview to be over are sending the wrong kind of metacommunication to extrovert journalists. They are also spooked by Tesla not advertising and Elon talking about watching the watchers: Pravduh. Outrageous notion to hold journalists accountable!

All of these forces will unify against Tesla.

This is why Elon couldn't attempt going-private from a position of weakness (early 2018), he had to do it from a position of strength, after Q2 and with Q3 around the corner.