TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Lessmog]

The Teslas aren't sustainable. This notion that Tesla has green credentials is ludicrous.

Public transport (that Elon Musk is so eager to ridicule) and dense living (that California doesn't exactly excel in, resulting in horrible PT and the biggest carbon foot print on the planet) is infinitely more sustainable than everyone driving a Tesla.

While Norway is the gold standard model for dense living? Look, I have seen on TV how a farmer had to ship his sheep by rope up and down to the fjord below his little farm. How many ferries are electrified yet? Not to mention tankers and aircraft ...

Sorry, but I always read a lot of comments about sustainability here and answered such a post that talked about the transtition to sustainable transport, but I'll keep any further discussion of this topic in the general discussion thread.

The speed of this thread ran away from me but I respect the forum, so this must be my parting shot. See you (or maybe not).

 

[KarenRei]

So, what are your buy prices?

I'm thinking about going with $288 (need to lock in pretty soon), because my broker works on Icelandic time and it's hard to modify things once set (and there's delays). Don't want to miss out on this buying opportunity, and am more willing to accept the risk of buying too high than not buying (surely it'll go down at least $2,50, right?)

 

[Boomer19]

This is really surreal. Model 3 production is exciting right now. Tesla looks set to beat 6,000 at the end of the month. There has been no sign of stopping since early July. Yet the stock is under attack. And, if Elon did the conventional thing here, he wouldn't have said anything about privatization at this point and we may have already been approaching $400.

i still maintain he had good reason to do so, just blind faith i guess. so take it at that.

but we’ve been here before, it’s not first rodeo. nothing is easy. that’s why it’s imp to keep some $ on side in case, esp with vol stk like this one

 

[Fact Checking]

Old breakout was from $287, so that's supportive.

Yeah, that's close to the $286 line I mentioned - but it was crossed twice in premarket on good volume, so it got weaker. It bounced from $286 once in the premarket. There's still a lot of stop orders that will trigger once the regular trading session opens.

Global macro got a bit harder to read as well: while DOW is still looking strong and green, NASDAQ futures are doing some weird legs down.

 

[KarenRei]

i still maintain he had good reason to do so, just blind faith i guess. so take it at that.

(My view is that he believed entirely what he wrote, but by writing that, he might have ruined the opportunity by scaring off PIF)

 

[cricketman]

problem is we have a vacuum of time between now and then, who knows where we’re going...it’s f’ing derailed for the time being.

This was going to happen anyway. The "5k per week is impossible" narrative is now obviously wrong so "they" were going to use whatever they could to try and bring down Tesla now before they really get started

The fight has really begun. It is easy to chop down a small tree than a big established tree, the oil and transport industries know that. Why do you think the established car industries have only been paying lip service to electric transport? It was always going to be way easier to destroy Elon/Tesla before they started big volume than being able to compete with them in terms of technology. In their mind, once Tesla is destroyed, they can go back to selling pure ICE. The only alternative is bankruptcy for the majority of ICE manufacturers.

I think we hear too much about the shorts. This is about established companies contracting PR companies to spread negative articles about Tesla. They know Tesla is all about Elon Musk, and they will use anything they can to discredit him. The "funding secured" tweet didn't help, but if it wasn't this it would be something else. I worked for a PR company for 3 years and I saw how most journalists just used whatever material the PR company churned out. Sadly, lies run the world. Elon knows this which is why he said the worst is still to come for him personally.

I am all in with Tesla, and I would prefer to go down with a sinking ship than lose my principles. Saying that, although I am nervous, I still cannot see beyond a very bright Tesla future. Elon will have all kinds of funding and options available to him if he can remain strong.

 

[jelloslug]

The high was $387. We’re down $100 in 1.5 weeks....This is insane!

It was 290 on July 30th.

 

[Boomer19]

jpm all over media saying no funding for deal...or maybe they’re just upset GS is lead advisor

 

[DFibRL8R]

This is really surreal. Model 3 production is exciting right now. Tesla looks set to beat 6,000 at the end of the month. There has been no sign of stopping since early July. Yet the stock is under attack. And, if Elon did the conventional thing here, he wouldn't have said anything about privatization at this point and we may have already been approaching $400.

So the fundamentals of the company are stronger than they have been previously but the stock price does not reflect that. Sounds like a nice opportunity to pick up some more TSLA on the cheap.

 

[mickificki]

Exactly what Elon said, personal pain will be incredible. Operational pain has come and gone.

heard snippets on cnbc

they’re now advertising the elon personal line of credit he took against his tsla holdings of about 750mm
they said first margin call happens around 215-218

dunno how true any of it is, but they are clearly trying to get a ‘run on bank’ scenario going.

they are snakes

 

[Matias]

I read really good posts about the possible organization of private Tesla on this forum. Maybe I overlooked an important question for small retail investors:
What could be the lower limit of the shares to be able to participate in private Tesla, if any?

No one knows.

 

[Fact Checking]

Don't want to miss out on this buying opportunity, and am more willing to accept the risk of buying too high than not buying (surely it'll go down at least $2,50, right?)

~700k shares traded in the pre-market session already, which makes it all pretty hard to read.

With a gun to my head I'd say that the session is going to re-test the pre-market low of $282 and possibly break it - maybe down to $273 or even lower, but who knows - maybe a big buyer finally takes advantage of the ridiculously discounted prices...

The thing I'm willing to predict for today is that the price will probably stay in the $200-$500 price range.

 

[KarenRei]

Locked in a buy at $288. Crossing my fingers we hit it. Also crossing my fingers that we don't bottom out at, like, $270 or something that would make me feel silly for going in at $288 If we bottom out at $280 or above, I'll call $288 a good buy.

 

[mutle]

60k Model 3 in Q3 only requires 19.2 GWh/year annualized production rate. And if Tesla predicted a battery cell shortfall even two months ago, they would likely have introduced the SR. I don't think cell production is a very hard limitation *currently*, though it may become one in Q4 or Q1.

It seems counter-intuitive but when battery supply is limited it actually makes more sense to produce the premium version as the profit margin of the battery upgrade and other premium options is much higher than producing 33% more cars but with lower margin. This video goes into more detail around the 5:50 mark:

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think we should all reply to all these media posts with this...

Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations rocket past 100k mark as production approaches 6k/week

Just drop it in the comments and walk away.

Dan

 

[Unpilot]

I Need some dry powder ..damn it!

 

[Olle]

yep, elon (and all of us) complain about the smear, but he sure created a lot of uncertainty in the last few “chess” moves, i gotta say.

How could Elon create $100 billion worth of companies starting with two empty hands?
I believe it is partly because he sees 12 "chess moves" ahead, when he makes a move. We are only in move one or two after the big "taking private tweet". We will see...

 

[Boomer19]

This was going to happen anyway. The "5k per week is impossible" narrative is now obviously wrong so "they" were going to use whatever they could to try and bring down Tesla now before they really get started

The fight has really begun. It is easy to chop down a small tree than a big established tree, the oil and transport industries know that. Why do you think the established car industries have only been paying lip service to electric transport? It was always going to be way easier to destroy Elon/Tesla before they started big volume than being able to compete with them in terms of technology. In their mind, once Tesla is destroyed, they can go back to selling pure ICE. The only alternative is bankruptcy for the majority of ICE manufacturers.

I think we hear too much about the shorts. This is about established companies contracting PR companies to spread negative articles about Tesla. They know Tesla is all about Elon Musk, and they will use anything they can to discredit him. The "funding secured" tweet didn't help, but if it wasn't this it would be something else. I worked for a PR company for 3 years and I saw how most journalists just used whatever material the PR company churned out. Sadly, lies run the world. Elon knows this which is why he said the worst is still to come for him personally.

I am all in with Tesla, and I would prefer to go down with a sinking ship than lose my principles. Saying that, although I am nervous, I still cannot see beyond a very bright Tesla future. Elon will have all kinds of funding and options available to him if he can remain strong.

yes shorts prob get more credit than they deserve for the destruction. it’s a group effort. and indeed, better to ignore and do what you do best, that’s why we’re here in the first place! he and his teams have proven they can do just about anything.

 

[tivoboy]

I think most people are already expecting Q3 production numbers to be high (if not, they're deluding themselves). The real things people want to see are margins, SG&A, etc and to be able to ask questions about demand and timing in the call.

Production numbers need to be above the 50-55k m3 sandbag that they put out there but more importantly they need to show Q3 deliveries of over ~85k vehicles enterprises wide.

 

[jhm]

The price seems beautifully engineered for anyone who would take Tesla private.