TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dagger]

I think we should all reply to all these media posts with this...

Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations rocket past 100k mark as production approaches 6k/week

Just drop it in the comments and walk away.

Dan

It's 9786 Model 3 NHTSA registrations in the last 7 days.

 

[Drax7]

I am surprised Elon still needs to maintain 120 hour week schedule given that
Operational situation is under control and production is approaching
6000 model 3s per week.

It could also imply he wants to improve production further and moreover
That he wants to achieve profitability in the quarter beyond any reasonable
Doubt. He is in the Only the paranoid survive mode.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

What has me worried is could this be a perfect storm created by Big Oil to kill Tesla more effectively than anything else?

Saudis court Elon for a while, he refuses, they then gobble up shares running up the stock price somewhat as well. Then they manage to convince Elon enough that Elon goes public with a go private announcement, soon after Saudis start dumping their purchased shares running the shareprice down and instead go for Lucid and leave Elon hanging destroying his credibility and as Elon = Tesla pretty much they get what they wanted.

Sounds nuts, but hell, same way it sounds nuts to have TSLA at 360-390 and drop to 280 in 1.5 weeks...

I have to say, unless TSLA recovers to 320-340 region soon (as in the next few weeks) I'll be mostly wiped out (already lost 20% last Friday with options spreads expiring fully ITM that previously were OTM). Will still have some call spreads going forward, but I'd be demolished as I didn't imagine we could see such carnage in share price following a plan to go private.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

It's 9788 Model 3 NHTSA registrations in the last 7 days.

Do you have a link to that stat?I would love to use it.

Dan

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I highly doubt the large institutional investors will be freaking out like everything else. They'll take a cold look at fundamentals and buy in.

If production is maintained and profitability arrives, it's game over. As far as I can see we're halfway there.

 

[tivoboy]

I am buying here.

I would consider holding some back till we let this ride out a bit. Well certainly have the oppty to buy at a lower price from here.

 

[aznt1217]

This is incredible. JP's price target really means nothing. He's been wrong time and time again but when it matches the sentiment and rhetoric it's circulated by the media.

If Tesla gets profitable by Q3, this will shoot the share price up quite a bit. For now enjoy the discount through the FUD. The privatization has taken options off the table with me because I'm not gambling time. Rolling everything into common shares and perhaps margin for me.

 

[tivoboy]

So, what are your buy prices?

I'm thinking about going with $288 (need to lock in pretty soon), because my broker works on Icelandic time and it's hard to modify things once set (and there's delays). Don't want to miss out on this buying opportunity, and am more willing to accept the risk of buying too high than not buying (surely it'll go down at least $2,50, right?)

Id wait till you see something with a 25x

 

[Brian N]

And we are off.

 

[JRP3]

Already 2 million shareshares traded.

 

[Dagger]

Do you have a like to that stat?I would love to use it.

Dan

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter
Just calculate the difference from the highest vin a week ago to today.

 

[Driver Dave]

Really nothing new actually, even today, it has been rollercoaster between 290ish-360ish for the past couple of years.

Hold on during the drops, wait for the chain of reality to pull it back up.

 

[Unpilot]

All that is left is for some of those people to be walking around wall st. wearing the sandwich boards proclaiming "EVERYTHING MUST GO! GOING OUT OF BUSINESS!"

 

[BornToFly]

Bought another 170 shares at 293. Was hoping for lower but was afraid to miss the train....

 

[KarenRei]

No, no, down dang you! Come on, hit $288, you can do it!

Hmm, maybe need to go taunt some shorts....

 

[bhtooefr]

C'mon, shorts, you can do it, you just have to try hard enough and believe in yourselves.

(I predicted the way that that would break wrong...)

 

[Opus BC fan]

No, no, down dang you! Come on, hit $288, you can do it!

Hmm, maybe need to go taunt some shorts....

So far the low is 288.2 and the morning dip is yet to come. Wait for it

 

[bhtooefr]

I'm seeing $297.xx...

 

[Electroman]

I think we should all reply to all these media posts with this...

Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations rocket past 100k mark as production approaches 6k/week

Just drop it in the comments and walk away.

Dan

And this is only reported in Teslarati or Electrek. The other MSM completely ignores this development

 

[neroden]

Is it just me or are there not each talk about the ramp? According to VIN registrations, Bloomberg etc there seems to be a lot of Model 3s being produced. If this is true, Q3 earnings should be pretty decent right? We are at 1000VINs/day for the last 50days, analyst in factory saying 8k/week within reach and nothing to make him doubt >5000/week, Bloomberg guiding 6000/week. Maybe north of 5000 cars/week have been achieved with good margins? People seem to be estimating and Tesla was guiding deliveries of 50-55k cars in Q3 and that is with the backlog. I have a feeling Q3 numbers will be much better than this. Shouldn't we be talking more about the ramp than about contentless NYT articles?

I'll warn you that there is news of other bottlenecks coming up and being addressed, which will cause occassional drops in production. And I think the cars-in-transit will remain high at the end of the quarter. I think we're going to have 50-55K deliveries in Q3 exactly as predicted.