TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Well my hope for the pre-market drop followed by a rise is playing out nicely so far.
If only I had some powder left.

 

[KarenRei]

I have to say, unless TSLA recovers to 320-340 region soon (as in the next few weeks) I'll be mostly wiped out (already lost 20% last Friday with options spreads expiring fully ITM that previously were OTM). Will still have some call spreads going forward, but I'd be demolished as I didn't imagine we could see such carnage in share price following a plan to go private.

I wouldn't be in the least surprised to see TSLA in the 320-340 range in a couple weeks. These sort of "news of the day" narratives don't last that long.

 

[S3XY]

In for a few more shares at today's current low of $288.20.

 

[sundaymorning]

Where’s that “This is 300!!!!!” Spartan photo when I need it?

 

[avoigt]

Day is still young, but If Tesla is able to close above opening price of 291.70, it would be a first sign of technical stability, I have seen this film over last 5 years of holding Tesla many time, this is the first time I have seen Tesla so disconnected from fundamentals.

The disconnectivity you refer to looks very suspicious to me and confirms my believe that this is manufactured or as other people like to call it manipulated.

Of course you have bulls getting nervous and weak in such a drop scenario but those are the ones that pay the price influenced by shorts and bears and media and others.

A while after Tesla is private the real story what has happened behind the scenes these days may be disclosed. Later we may see documentations or movies appear about the time when big oil tried desperately to kill EVs.

 

[RAVAGESofTIME]

What has me worried is could this be a perfect storm created by Big Oil to kill Tesla more effectively than anything else?

Saudis court Elon for a while, he refuses, they then gobble up shares running up the stock price somewhat as well. Then they manage to convince Elon enough that Elon goes public with a go private announcement, soon after Saudis start dumping their purchased shares running the shareprice down and instead go for Lucid and leave Elon hanging destroying his credibility and as Elon = Tesla pretty much they get what they wanted.

Sounds nuts, but hell, same way it sounds nuts to have TSLA at 360-390 and drop to 280 in 1.5 weeks...

I have to say, unless TSLA recovers to 320-340 region soon (as in the next few weeks) I'll be mostly wiped out (already lost 20% last Friday with options spreads expiring fully ITM that previously were OTM). Will still have some call spreads going forward, but I'd be demolished as I didn't imagine we could see such carnage in share price following a plan to go private.

It is a bit like the fox watching the hen house.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just missed it. Oh well.

TSLA price action is distinctly weird today:

• TSLA almost completely ignored the -0.5% NASDAQ selloff so far - usually it would drop 1-2% on that correlation alone
• The TSLA rise so far was with very few pullbacks, which suggests LIMIT order based big buyer activities, not emotional panic trading combined with dry-powder utilization
  
• The pre-market low was not re-tested so far, which is uncharacteristic as well, as there was no corporate event to change pre-market price sentiment
• The spike-seller of the last 2 weeks has not reappeared either, yet.

A few more days of such price action and I'd say that either a big short is flipping positions (!), or a big buyer perceives this as the crest of peak FUD and started accumulating big time, again - there's only 6 short weeks left until Q3 delivery numbers after all.

Or it's the calm before the storm - who knows.

 

[tivoboy]

Wait for the FUD to begin ca 11:20 eastern. ;-)

 

[S3XY]

TSLA price action is distinctly weird today:

• TSLA almost completely ignored the -0.5% NASDAQ selloff so far - usually it would drop 1-2% on that correlation alone
• The TSLA rise so far was with very few pullbacks, which suggests LIMIT order based big buyer activities, not emotional panic trading combined with dry-powder utilization
  
• The pre-market low was not re-tested so far, which is uncharacteristic as well, as there was no corporate event to change pre-market price sentiment
• The spike-seller of the last 2 weeks has not reappeared either, yet.

A few more days of such price action and I'd say that either a big short is flipping positions (!), or a big buyer perceives this as the crest of peak FUD and started accumulating big time, again - there's only 6 short weeks left until Q3 delivery numbers after all.

Not a big buyer but I did have a limit order in to get that $288.20. Might need to play the Mega Millions Lottery this week while my luck holds.

 

[Krugerrand]

Personally I see the Lucid news as a negotiating tactic on the Saudis part. It never hurts to show that you have options when it comes to negotiating prices.

Well, um...I suppose some may think it’s a successful negotiating tactic to say I can buy Kobe beef for my restaurant or I can buy squirrel for my restaurant. I don’t care, nobody will be able to tell the difference.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Well, um...I suppose some may think it’s a successful negotiating tactic to say I can buy Kobe beef for my restaurant or I can buy squirrel for my restaurant. I don’t care, nobody will be able to tell the difference.

You've obviously never tasted properly aged squirrel.

 

[Krugerrand]

You've obviously never tasted properly aged squirrel.

I stand corrected.

 

[S3XY]

 

[Fact Checking]

You've obviously never tasted properly aged squirrel.

Aren't Rhinos herbivores? Or are steaks of properly aged squirrel a rare exception to that rule?

 

[BrianZ]

TSLA price action is distinctly weird today:

• TSLA almost completely ignored the -0.5% NASDAQ selloff so far - usually it would drop 1-2% on that correlation alone
• The TSLA rise so far was with very few pullbacks, which suggests LIMIT order based big buyer activities, not emotional panic trading combined with dry-powder utilization
  
• The pre-market low was not re-tested so far, which is uncharacteristic as well, as there was no corporate event to change pre-market price sentiment
• The spike-seller of the last 2 weeks has not reappeared either, yet.

A few more days of such price action and I'd say that either a big short is flipping positions (!), or a big buyer perceives this as the crest of peak FUD and started accumulating big time, again - there's only 6 short weeks left until Q3 delivery numbers after all.

Or it's the calm before the storm - who knows.

Excellent post! I noticed much of the same. There's a TON of volume in the first hour.

Any thoughts on the possibility of big players under moratorium being allowed to come back in when the SP dips too low (looks like <$300) to prevent destabilizing the stock too much?

 

[sundaymorning]

This can be the price stability we were hoping for, $303 now.

It’s hard to ignore the fundamentals when 5-6k by end of month is within reach. I’ll say it again, we don’t need a buyout, but we could use another $2-3 billion if Saudi money for the China factory.

 

[mershaw2001]

GREEEEN! that's a good 25 dollar swing so far from the 282 low.

 

[TrendTrader007]

·
9s

$TSLA Shorts and dim witted analysts with IQs in low 90s can dream about the stock going to $190 or zero It is not happening Keep on shorting till kingdom comes I’ll see you morons at $420

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, SP just popped up to 307 in about 5 min. Anybody see any news? Big buying program? Does anyone have a near-realtime public source of volume data? Cheers!

 

[bdy0627]

Congrats longs. I'm glad to see the bottom but I'm slightly disappointed to have missed adding near the low this morning. I wasn't able to trade until about 30 minutes after the opening and totally missed the opportunity. It's amazing how this same movie just keeps replaying again and again...