Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So...same old, same old.
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So...same old, same old.
mltv
Member
The sun will still rise on Monday. Tesla will still produce car regardless of going private or stay public. My goal haven't change. Good if it goes up due to the news. Good if it goes down on the news - I am ready to buy more. I love the stay public news.
SebastianR
Active Member
So we will have the short drama longer. Sorry to hear that. At least I know for sure I can keep all my shares.
Two options for Monday: Outrage and spiteful laughter amongst the shorts will kill the price.
Or
The ones interested in Tesla can buy in and are not bound by NDA/insider trading rules.
Two options for Monday: Outrage and spiteful laughter amongst the shorts will kill the price.
Or
The ones interested in Tesla can buy in and are not bound by NDA/insider trading rules.
CFIUS is still a thing.
I don't think the Saudis are going to try and buy a stake they could be forced to divest by the US Government.
Tencent also had their stake revealed but they didn't keep adding after the reveal for probably the same reason.
Ulmo
Active Member
This is a huge missed opportunity for Tesla, Inc., and the start of a sinking trend of pandering to those who do not have Tesla's best interests in mind.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Rambling thoughts on staying public -
That the news was conveyed in a blog post, rather than via Twitter - good.
That the news was conveyed Friday evening... good for longs who want the news to sink in and not have an over-reaction. Also good for the shorts who will spend the next two days dreaming up stories to illustrate that this u-turn is a disaster.
Is it a disaster? Only if you are short TSLA, and you want to convey more reasons why Elon Musk is a weight hanging around the neck of the company and has to go. (a ludicrous idea)
It is not a disaster from my standpoint because Elon spent several weeks researching it with a lot more people who weren't privvy to the idea when it was a secret - obviously - and was able to change course based on improved information. This shows that Elon is humble enough to change course when it becomes evident that his plan was not optimal.
Folks like Chanos may be breathing a sigh of relief at the moment, since he can still screw with the value of TSLA via the court of public opinion. However, the fundamentals of the company are doing nothing except improve. I believe the shorts will simply get screwed in the normal, slower way. The death of a thousand points.
Cathie Wood is probably feeling pretty good right about now.
The stock was about $354 following the news of the Saudi stock purchase. TSLA is approximately 10% below that right now. I personally do not expect it to fall based on reasonable information. If the short sellers succeed with the campaign they are undoubtedly going to wage, then the stock will fall... at which point I have dry powder ready to go.
Now that there is no "going public" story to study, the only other information about Tesla that can be used to determine the stock price is the fundamentals of the company. And... auto production is exploding at the factory these days, with a very profitable trio of cars.
It's possible that we may begin to see Tesla prop up their stock by releasing more snippits of positive information. For example, monthly deliveries of Model 3. The Model 3 is pretty high in the U.S. sales charts and has a good chance of challenging for the #1 position. Tesla ought not wait for quarterly ER to disclose that!!!
It's also possible that the sources of funding that were being talked to with regard to "going private" may simply elect to start taking a position in the company on the public markets. There is no reason why the Saudis couldn't keep on buying stock now, if that's what they want to do. There is a lot of sentiment indicating we may never see sub-$300 again, following Model 3 profits. Maybe now is the time to get into TSLA.
That the news was conveyed in a blog post, rather than via Twitter - good.
That the news was conveyed Friday evening... good for longs who want the news to sink in and not have an over-reaction. Also good for the shorts who will spend the next two days dreaming up stories to illustrate that this u-turn is a disaster.
Is it a disaster? Only if you are short TSLA, and you want to convey more reasons why Elon Musk is a weight hanging around the neck of the company and has to go. (a ludicrous idea)
It is not a disaster from my standpoint because Elon spent several weeks researching it with a lot more people who weren't privvy to the idea when it was a secret - obviously - and was able to change course based on improved information. This shows that Elon is humble enough to change course when it becomes evident that his plan was not optimal.
Folks like Chanos may be breathing a sigh of relief at the moment, since he can still screw with the value of TSLA via the court of public opinion. However, the fundamentals of the company are doing nothing except improve. I believe the shorts will simply get screwed in the normal, slower way. The death of a thousand points.
Cathie Wood is probably feeling pretty good right about now.
The stock was about $354 following the news of the Saudi stock purchase. TSLA is approximately 10% below that right now. I personally do not expect it to fall based on reasonable information. If the short sellers succeed with the campaign they are undoubtedly going to wage, then the stock will fall... at which point I have dry powder ready to go.
Now that there is no "going public" story to study, the only other information about Tesla that can be used to determine the stock price is the fundamentals of the company. And... auto production is exploding at the factory these days, with a very profitable trio of cars.
It's possible that we may begin to see Tesla prop up their stock by releasing more snippits of positive information. For example, monthly deliveries of Model 3. The Model 3 is pretty high in the U.S. sales charts and has a good chance of challenging for the #1 position. Tesla ought not wait for quarterly ER to disclose that!!!
It's also possible that the sources of funding that were being talked to with regard to "going private" may simply elect to start taking a position in the company on the public markets. There is no reason why the Saudis couldn't keep on buying stock now, if that's what they want to do. There is a lot of sentiment indicating we may never see sub-$300 again, following Model 3 profits. Maybe now is the time to get into TSLA.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Short interest went down 2 million shares only: about 20% of volume of an average TSLA trading day.
Shorting now, before Q3 and Q4, would be insane - not that shorts are particularly smart ...
Shorting some more will strengthen the inevitable old-fashioned short squeeze that Q3 or Q4 profitability will trigger.
Shorts don't have the "institutional investors are going to be forced to sell to us above $420" bailout option left either.
I was just thinking about that... if they're making >6,000 quality cars already, the board may have convinced him that it's going to be far better for the company and the SP to stay public. I just looked at the valuation of the private SpaceX and was envious I guess.
Now I can't wait for the end of September!
They were "outed" 16 days ago. No filings yet...Let's face it, in their place I would sit back and see how this all plays out. Wait for the Q3 numbers, or other action in the meantime. They have been buying since March so they may have been big buyers in that dip in April.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
This was never a real issue: the Trumps are extremely cozy with the Saudis, on every level:
Saudi Crown Prince Boasted That Jared Kushner Was “In His Pocket”
If just a fraction of that report is true the Saudis have a lot of leverage at the WH.
sundaymorning
Active Member
This deal was complicated from the start, a take private that would exclude foreign investors, some mutual funds, set a cap on less than 2,000 investors. How do you even make that work? Staying public is best, Elon needs to make it up to share holders. Get us to 6k and announce it immediately.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Yep. But at least the uncertainty is over.
All of this makes sense, however I do feel in the very near term that shorts will likely attack on the news.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The Saudis were outed as having accumulated just below the reporting threshold, and the price jumped big at the news. (Which herding is probably why they tried to keep it secret.) During the going-private negotiations they were likely unable to accumulate (or sell).
Is this kind of flawed logic really the best angle shorts can come up with?
If you want to stay solvent as a TSLA short in the months to come you will have to seriously upgrade the intellectual effort you are putting into that ill conceived, borderline sociopathic bet...
Forget the shorts. All they can say is "we told you so". There is little else to say.
It is the press that has been relentless recently. Now they have fresh ammunition. Musk should never have said he wanted to create a website to rate news stories and reporters. That rubbed a lot of people the wrong way.
Been gone for a few days, unfortunately. Haven't been been able scan the updates in this thread. I did, however, significantly increase my position in TSLA since...for better or worse 
But wow, the not-going-private message is insane. I don't know how to react. Catherine Wood's open letter to Elon was wild to me...but I agreed with it, mostly. I call myself a fanboy, accept all that comes with it, understand that I could lose every penny I put into this company (which could more than buy me a Telsa that I don't even have!), but to see other people with lots of money basically making the same arguments I make to myself is very assuring.
To shift a bit, one of the things I love about these forums is there are a LOT of electrical engineers here who can intelligently comment on Tesla's technology. I'm an electrical engineer (who doesn't work in electrical engineering) but I have a reasonable amount of knowledge about computer engineering. If Tesla really has a new chip that is a 10x speedup in fps in video processing, which is very different (and perhaps significantly more powerful than!) a 10x increase in raw processing speed for their autonomous driving unit from nVidia...well, then they've just entered new ground for a "car company." Good luck to the other competitors who seem to be only concerned with putting a battery and electric motor in their cars.
Get ready for the ride, ladies and gents, this is going to be fun.
But wow, the not-going-private message is insane. I don't know how to react. Catherine Wood's open letter to Elon was wild to me...but I agreed with it, mostly. I call myself a fanboy, accept all that comes with it, understand that I could lose every penny I put into this company (which could more than buy me a Telsa that I don't even have!
), but to see other people with lots of money basically making the same arguments I make to myself is very assuring. To shift a bit, one of the things I love about these forums is there are a LOT of electrical engineers here who can intelligently comment on Tesla's technology. I'm an electrical engineer (who doesn't work in electrical engineering
) but I have a reasonable amount of knowledge about computer engineering. If Tesla really has a new chip that is a 10x speedup in fps in video processing, which is very different (and perhaps significantly more powerful than!) a 10x increase in raw processing speed for their autonomous driving unit from nVidia...well, then they've just entered new ground for a "car company." Good luck to the other competitors who seem to be only concerned with putting a battery and electric motor in their cars. Get ready for the ride, ladies and gents, this is going to be fun.
I hold long-dated puts. I buy short dated calls on dips too. The current activity does not affect me at all. I almost never short stocks and I have never shorted TSLA. I did short SCTY. That is how Tesla got on my radar screen back in 2016. I could not understand why anyone would buy SCTY until I compared the shareholder lists. Then it all made sense and I knew it would get done.
sundaymorning
Active Member
“I’m thinking about taking Tesla private.”
“funding secured” but “pending shareholder vote.”
Elon also said he will “try” to take retail investors private.
Now had he said “Tesla is 100% going private and retail investors are 100% going to be able to go private at $420, one hundred % without a doubt all papers signed, board approved shareholders voted with 100% confidence”, then you might have a case.
Otherwise, your problem was driven by greed. But stay mad, it’ll help you think more clearly when posting here.
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