TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[pz1975]

Feels like the bottom today (or maybe the MMD tomorrow).

 

[Krugerrand]

My threshold on blocking someone is pretty high. Mike is the first and only person to have hit it. Beachbum is certainly more bearish than most here(and much more so than I am), but seems reasoned enough(more so than some of the bulls), so I value his contributions, even if I usually disagree with them.

He’s not more reasoned, he’s just slicker. He bends the information just enough to make it support his narrative but not enough to raise a huge red flag or not be able to wiggle his way out of it. But give it time. Nobody has been able to carry on the charade here for long.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well it is a Model 3. That means you took delivery in the last year.

But that’s not what you said. You said I ‘just’ got it. When someone says I just got my nails done, I just bought a house, I just saw Great White in concert, their thought process isn’t, ‘oh, so within the last year...’. You know it. I know it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I follow Elon on Twitter. I have seen nothing controversial from him for a while. What did I miss?

Buzzfeed emails.

 

[beachbum77]

CPOs have never received the tax credit and that has always been clearly stated when you talk to Tesla.

I bought my CPO in 2016 and paid about half the price it was sold new. That's quite a savings over a discounted inventory car.

I've been on the fence about putting you on ignore, but this was it for me. It's clear that you just keep pushing an agenda instead of actually looking at facts and numbers.

Thank you for making my point. I wish you would give us the year of your car. But at half the price of new that would be a substantial hit on these early lease returns. If a buyer can choose from two nearly identical units at nearly the same price why would the buyer choose the CPO unit without the FITC? The CPO unit would need to be discounted by more than the FITC. That was the point I was making.

Read the Electrek article. Fred has the same questions I do.

 

[Unpilot]

But that’s not what you said. You said I ‘just’ got it. When someone says I just got my nails done, I just bought a house, I just saw Great White in concert, their thought process isn’t, ‘oh, so within the last year...’. You know it. I know it.

I decided that Don...err... the bum is good for a laugh...as soon as that wears off ...goodbye.
There are plenty that give counter views...and when I am done reading them I don't feel like I need a shower.

 

[beachbum77]

But that’s not what you said. You said I ‘just’ got it. When someone says I just got my nails done, I just bought a house, I just saw Great White in concert, their thought process isn’t, ‘oh, so within the last year...’. You know it. I know it.

I am a former dealer. Less than 1% want to trade a car within a year. Those that do find they cannot afford to take the loss unless they paid cash. You said your spouse was ready to upgrade. All I asked was what to and why? It was a pretty simple question.

 

[Ugliest1]

Oh, come on! There's an entire thread devoted to it, that has been mentioned multiple times. You're lucky that I'm taking a timeout from moderation at the moment...

I’m glad it’s hopefully only a timeout. I felt bad that we had broken the moderator.

 

[Unpilot]

I am a former dealer. Less than 1% want to trade a car within a year. Those that do find they cannot afford to take the loss unless they paid cash. You said your spouse was ready to upgrade. All I asked was what to and why? It was a pretty simple question.

Your still a dealer...just not too many buying I bet.

 

[neroden]

Tesla knows what they can sell CPO vehicles for. If they can take back leased cars and re-sell them at a profit, all while selling (leasing) a new car, why wouldn't they? Just my hypothesis.

I'm still trying to figure out under what circumstances Tesla would make a profit by getting the leased cars returned early. Market value for the cars is easy enough to figure out; what's less easy to figure out is what the current value of the value of the remaining term of the lease + the car being returned at the end of the lease was to Tesla.

It's possible that Tesla feels that the cars are going to be worth more now than the remaining lease payments + the value at the end of the lease.

Or -- I think I might have figured it out. Under the leasing standards, the leasing revenue isn't recognized all at once, but is stretched out over the lease lifetime (vaguely related to the cash payments). Reclaiming the car and *selling it* (not re-leasing it) realizes the revenue *in Q3* rather than over the next year. It's revenue pullforward, as well as cash-positive.

I wonder if Tesla is only doing this with direct leases, because that would make sense.

On third-party leases or sold-off-to-third-party leases, Tesla gets all their money upfront and recognizes the revenue upfront, which is clearly what's wanted. Tesla really doesn't want to be in the direct lease financing business *at all*, from an accounting perspective (similar to the reasons why they don't want SolarCity to lease solar panels). Maybe the old direct leases aren't packagable/resaleable (too few, terms too inconsistent).

So there's my hypothesis. Just a hypothesis at this point, though. Not fully comfortable with it.

 

[beachbum77]

Your still a dealer...just not too many buying I bet.

We sold out to AutoNation in 2006 for a price we could not refuse. But the auto industry still interests me.

 

[Unpilot]

We sold out to AutoNation in 2006 for a price we could not refuse. But the auto industry still interests me.

No.... shorting Tesla interests you.

 

[beachbum77]

I'm still trying to figure out under what circumstances Tesla would make a profit by getting the leased cars returned early. Market value for the cars is easy enough to figure out; what's less easy to figure out is what the current value of the value of the remaining term of the lease + the car being returned at the end of the lease was to Tesla.

It's possible that Tesla feels that the cars are going to be worth more now than the remaining lease payments + the value at the end of the lease.

Or -- I think I might have figured it out. Under the leasing standards, the leasing revenue isn't recognized all at once, but is stretched out over the lease lifetime (vaguely related to the cash payments). Reclaiming the car and *selling it* (not re-leasing it) realizes the revenue *in Q3* rather than over the next year. It's revenue pullforward, as well as cash-positive.

I wonder if Tesla is only doing this with direct leases, because that would make sense.

On third-party leases or sold-off-to-third-party leases, Tesla gets all their money upfront and recognizes the revenue upfront, which is clearly what's wanted. Tesla really doesn't want to be in the direct lease financing business *at all*, from an accounting perspective (similar to the reasons why they don't want SolarCity to lease solar panels). Maybe the old direct leases aren't packagable/resaleable (too few, terms too inconsistent).

So there's my hypothesis. Just a hypothesis at this point, though. Not fully comfortable with it.

You might find this interesting.

New accounting rules trim Tesla deficit and promise faster future revenues

 

[Krugerrand]

I am a former dealer. Less than 1% want to trade a car within a year. Those that do find they cannot afford to take the loss unless they paid cash. You said your spouse was ready to upgrade. All I asked was what to and why? It was a pretty simple question.

It’s not a pretty simple question. I’m on to you. You have an ulterior motive.

Obviously, the upgrade is to a P3D becauses it’s a faster, higher performing Tesla. No, nothing is wrong with our current M3. We love it.

 

[Joe F]

Still trying to come of with the name of the mental disorder you have to have to go to the trouble of making an account on a forum of things you hate, just to troll the community there. I'm sure some of them have financial interests. I think others don't, they're just straight out wack.

It’s called “Ignored Member Syndrome”

Try it, you may like it. Doctor recommended.

 

[beachbum77]

It’s not a pretty simple question. I’m on to you. You have an ulterior motive.

Obviously, the upgrade is to a P3D becauses it’s a faster, higher performing Tesla. No, nothing is wrong with our current M3. We love it.

It was just a simple question. My neighbor switched up his Model S last year just to get a different color. I already have my expensive "toy". I want the SR to replace my aging '98 SL500 commuter car.

My showroom does not have a P3D for test drives yet. Just RWD units.

 

[The Blue Owl]

 

[neroden]

Replacing leases with sales makes sense financially.

But it's just completely implausible to me that taking lease returns early (which boosts inventory of old cars which have to be resold cheaply!) is being done to lease more new or inventory cars. The accounting doesn't seem to work out. With straight-line recognition of lease revenue, you're replacing one set of lease payments with another (essentially identical revenue per quarter, unless the customer gets a more expensive car) while replacing a more valuable new car with a less valuable older one. I can't think of a reason to do it.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

He’s not more reasoned, he’s just slicker. He bends the information just enough to make it support his narrative but not enough to raise a huge red flag or not be able to wiggle his way out of it. But give it time. Nobody has been able to carry on the charade here for long.

Sure, but everybody does that. If absolutely nothing else, I’ve learned a lot from reading the replies(in context with his original post).

 

[beachbum77]

Replacing leases with sales makes sense financially.

But it's just completely implausible to me that taking lease returns early (which boosts inventory of old cars which have to be resold cheaply!) is being done to lease more new or inventory cars. The accounting doesn't seem to work out. With straight-line recognition of lease revenue, you're replacing one set of lease payments with another (essentially identical revenue per quarter, unless the customer gets a more expensive car) while replacing a more valuable new car with a less valuable older one. I can't think of a reason to do it.

Wow...We finally agree on something. That's progress. But there must be something we are missing. There must be some way revenue gets booked now and the associated losses get deferred into Q4 or when the car is resold. That is the only logical reason I can see. So as a short term fix for increased revenue it could work. My guess is Deepak will let Q4 absorb the losses when revenue will be higher.