TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Richgoogol]

Bought 100 shs @ 328.50

 

[Bobbyducati]

would be nice to see a bump to end the day. not optimistic.

 

[1101011]

That’s the thing about tariffs; they allow domestic producers to raise prices. Good for steel producers, bad for everyone else.

I consult with a metals warehouse: aluminum prices in this company increased 10% the day after the tariff announcement.

 

[Jayjs20]

I feel like we're in decent buying territory, so it's silly to sell. It could always sink lower, but the selling at decent buying levels and rebuying at great buying levels makes me too nervous.

 

[Starno]

I think for post ER market action :
If we are sub 1800/w by the time ER shows up, SP gonna crash. If we're over 2300, I think it will react very well. Anything in between and I think it might go in either direction.

 

[bdy0627]

My gut feeling for what happens after Q1:

• Huge miss, 1000/wk at March End, 5K target pushes out again -> $250
  
• Big miss, 1500/wk at M/E, 5K target stays -> $300
• Small miss, 2000/wk at ME, 5K target stays -> $330 (I think this is what people are expecting)
  
• Barely hit, 2500/wk with hand waving, 5K target stays -> $350 (another hit in Q2 + margin improvement needed to really take off)
  
• Big hit, 2500/wk without hand waving, 5K target stays -> $370
• Huge hit, >2500/wk without hand waving, 5K target pull-in -> $400+

I focused mostly on the 5K target staying since Tesla has moved it twice so hopefully they're really confident about this. But it's also possible that Tesla comes close to the 2500/wk target but pushes out 5K target again, for example, in order to duck under the 200K sales threshold in the US until Q3. Depend on how it's communicated, I have no idea how that would be received.

This looks reasonable to me. I don't expect TSLA to share their sustained weekly production rate at the end of Q1, since it may very well be below their guidance. If so, to protect the stock, look for a burst rate to be quoted again, leaving investors to scratch their heads trying to figure out the actual weekly production rate. We will know the overall quarterly production and can compare that to expectations. If they produce about 11,500 for the quarter, that yields a production average of about 880 per week over the quarter. It seems like the ramp is currently going a little slower than anticipated right now, but if there is a burst of production near the end of the quarter and Tesla confirms successful startup of the Grohmann module production line, that could prove to be a strong positive catalyst for the stock.

 

[Tslynk67]

My gut feeling for what happens after Q1:

• Huge miss, 1000/wk at March End, 5K target pushes out again -> $250
  
• Big miss, 1500/wk at M/E, 5K target stays -> $300
• Small miss, 2000/wk at ME, 5K target stays -> $330 (I think this is what people are expecting)
  
• Barely hit, 2500/wk with hand waving, 5K target stays -> $350 (another hit in Q2 + margin improvement needed to really take off)
  
• Big hit, 2500/wk without hand waving, 5K target stays -> $370
• Huge hit, >2500/wk without hand waving, 5K target pull-in -> $400+

I focused mostly on the 5K target staying since Tesla has moved it twice so hopefully they're really confident about this. But it's also possible that Tesla comes close to the 2500/wk target but pushes out 5K target again, for example, in order to duck under the 200K sales threshold in the US until Q3. Depend on how it's communicated, I have no idea how that would be received.

First or last option would suit me... the rest is a bit "meh"

 

[Tenable]

First or last option would suit me... the rest is a bit "meh"

There is just no volume under TSLA the last couple of days. Odd.

 

[Bobbyducati]

so much resistance at 329.5ish. really hope we can break thru that by 4.

 

[dmckinstry]

Bought 100 shs @ 328.50

I'm jealous of you who have enough dry power to buy 100 shares at a time. The last time I could manage to buy 100 shares in one lump was in May 2013, when I bought at ~$56/share.

 

[bdy0627]

As long as we stay above the low made on 3/2, then I consider this to be day 2 of the next climb, even though we are going modestly downhill. If we make a new low then it reverts back to the prior dip, adding to the amount lost from the climb before that. If that happens, my next buy point is at $320, which is a drop of 11% from the prior high of $360. If we continue up, I will be looking to sell a wave of calls at $351, which is a climb of 9% from the recent low of $322.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm jealous of you who have enough dry power to buy 100 shares at a time. The last time I could manage to buy 100 shares in one lump was in May 2013, when I bought at ~$56/share.

There are undoubtedly many here who are very envious of your entry point.

 

[ZeApelido]

My gut feeling for what happens after Q1:

• Huge miss, 1000/wk at March End, 5K target pushes out again -> $250
  
• Big miss, 1500/wk at M/E, 5K target stays -> $300
• Small miss, 2000/wk at ME, 5K target stays -> $330 (I think this is what people are expecting)
  
• Barely hit, 2500/wk with hand waving, 5K target stays -> $350 (another hit in Q2 + margin improvement needed to really take off)
  
• Big hit, 2500/wk without hand waving, 5K target stays -> $370
• Huge hit, >2500/wk without hand waving, 5K target pull-in -> $400+

I focused mostly on the 5K target staying since Tesla has moved it twice so hopefully they're really confident about this. But it's also possible that Tesla comes close to the 2500/wk target but pushes out 5K target again, for example, in order to duck under the 200K sales threshold in the US until Q3. Depend on how it's communicated, I have no idea how that would be received.

Thanks for estimates. I am conflicted by thinking they will be producing enough batteries by end of Q1, but not enough cars. That plus possible claims to reaching 2500/wk in some burst makes me wary of which way it will go.

 

[Bobbyducati]

looks like a limp to the finish line today.

 

[Richgoogol]

I'm jealous of you who have enough dry power to buy 100 shares at a time. The last time I could manage to buy 100 shares in one lump was in May 2013, when I bought at ~$56/share.

I am actually reaching deep into my margin account...I know I shouldn't but just cannot help it

 

[Reciprocity]

Im all out again from TSLA calls, I will try again tomorrow with MMD and hope for more action.

 

[Jayjs20]

I am actually reaching deep into my margin account...I know I shouldn't but just cannot help it

Think we've heard this story before recently.

 

[jhm]

Scored a J20 call @ 360 for $67 today. Breakeven is just $427 in Jan 2020.

Let's hope the Model 3 is ramped up by that point in time.

 

[Richgoogol]

Think we've heard this story before recently.

Yep...now I am even deeper in margin than before...and I can sell shares for other stocks and leverage more if necessary.

 

[Richgoogol]

Damn it...at a $30 loss on my last buy... no pride for me today...