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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Especially given this characterization of how Left operates:
In the finance world, Left, 46, is what is known as an “activist” short-seller. After he places a bet against the price of a stock, he then publishes research designed to torpedo the company’s value, often by airing accusations of fraud or abuse. This is entirely legal, as long as what he publishes is not itself fraudulent. Left takes short positions in companies across a whole range of industries — Tesla, Valeant, GoPro — and though he makes mistakes, he has an unusually high success rate. The Bounty Hunter of Wall Street

Ummm....

We watched as the stock came down, dollar after dollar, from 75 to 74 to 73; 72, 71, 70. Left wrote two more tweets, including a promise to appear on television with further revelations. Soon, the phone started ringing — reporters calling. Linette Lopez from Business Insider texted for quotes. CNBC booked him for 2 p.m. that day. “The question is,” Left told a journalist from Bloomberg, “is the new administration serious? He’s going to rein in drug pricing. O.K., Mr. Trump, here’s my advice: I know the industry. Go after Express Scripts.”
 
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I suspect the Rogan podcast will be fireworks. Not the best environment for Musk. Rogan is somewhat inflammatory and over the top, and might incite more imprudent remarks. Sam Harris would be more Elons speed , but Rogan has a much bigger audience. Certainly a must listen.
I don't regard Joe Rogan as inflammatory at all. He does freely speak his mind, but he's most certainly not trolling anyone for attention. I think he's open-minded and he seems quite aware of his own limitations, especially when interviewing illustrious guests. The only "risk", if you want to call it that, for the guests is the completely open format for the discussion. There is no set list of questions or pre-rehearsed interaction, and no hostile interviewing in order to "get the scoop". It's just a conversation between (most often) two people who are interested in each other's thoughts, except it's broadcast live to millions of listeners.

I think Elon will do just fine. I can't wait.
 
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Forgive my rant.

I'm not happy at all about the short interest going down dramatically.

For all the damage shorts caused, they need to be SEVERELY punished. However, it seems like they're winning.

1. They successfully pushed down the stock price, spread all this FUD, and tarnish Tesla's brand.
2. They are getting away with this, as they're able to cover at very low prices
3. Not only that, they managed to cover millions of shares while STILL decreasing the stock price instead of increasing the stock price dramatically
4. They are destroying Elon as a person, and it is working, even though what he is doing is arguably some of the most effective and beneficial work for humanity and Earth.

WTF????

The big shorts need to be LOSING THEIR SHIRTS! It's one thing shorting to make a profit from trading, that's fine. I do that too. But it's another thing to create massive amounts of FUD and be the driver of negativity. That makes my blood boil. And seeing them get away with it by covering at ridiculously low prices, exactly what they intended, is beyond unjust.

I feel so bad for Elon, and I can't even imagine the psychological torture he is enduring for giving up a perfect opportunity to roast the shorts for the good of the institutional shareholders. I hope the market will be unusually kind to him starting Q3 2018.
 
Under the current condition, my approach is to stay all long, sit on shares. Close all the covered Calls. Will look for opportunities to add more long position.

I'm not sure if $280 is the bottom. I think it's pretty close. Even if we get a flash drop, it should come back fast. The chance for Tesla to bankrupt is near zero. We already discussed this in the past. I think the bond price drop is not an indication that Tesla is in financial trouble. Most likely someone is using the bond price to help manipulate the stock.

I hesitate to use leverage. My logic is: if this is the true bottom, my account should do really well in the long run. If this is not the true bottom, I should see better entry later.

If Tesla grows as many of us expected, we will see plenty of opportunities in the future. (There were numerous opportunities to add Amazon and Apple in the past 15 years). I will continue to accumulate cash on the side, and use them when great opportunities come.

Shorts can spread as much FUD as they want, the fundamental picture is that EV wins, more and more people will see this, think about all the new Tesla owners and their friends. EVs are much better than ICE vehicles, they save gasoline cost and are much more fun to drive. The future belongs to EVs. Tesla holds the leading position by far. Autonomous is everyone's guess. I like Tesla's vision approach. The current autopilot works great for me. I think Tesla is not far away from adding features like recognizing traffic lights and stop signs; highway entry and exit; automatic drive on planned navigation route...
 
As far as support levels, if $275 gets taken out then the next support level below appears to be $262. As THE lower trendline, that's a strong support level. That's about 6% below us now. What this means to me is that any additional significant dips should be bought with any extra powder. I'm out of powder at this point, and I've already liquidated my other stock positions. I don't have any other stocks that I see a likely 50%+ gain over the next 6 months, so TSLA it is. If we do happen to slip another 5%, I plan to increase leverage into shorter term (October or possibly even SEP21) calls. I'm seeing a 16%+ climb coming soon.
 
Forgive my rant.

I'm not happy at all about the short interest going down dramatically.

For all the damage shorts caused, they need to be SEVERELY punished. However, it seems like they're winning.

1. They successfully pushed down the stock price, spread all this FUD, and tarnish Tesla's brand.
2. They are getting away with this, as they're able to cover at very low prices
3. Not only that, they managed to cover millions of shares while STILL decreasing the stock price instead of increasing the stock price dramatically
4. They are destroying Elon as a person, and it is working, even though what he is doing is arguably some of the most effective and beneficial work for humanity and Earth.

WTF????

The big shorts need to be LOSING THEIR SHIRTS! It's one thing shorting to make a profit from trading, that's fine. I do that too. But it's another thing to create massive amounts of FUD and be the driver of negativity. That makes my blood boil. And seeing them get away with it by covering at ridiculously low prices, exactly what they intended, is beyond unjust.

I feel so bad for Elon, and I can't even imagine the psychological torture he is enduring for giving up a perfect opportunity to roast the shorts for the good of the institutional shareholders. I hope the market will be unusually kind to him starting Q3 2018.

“Vengeance is mine sayith the Lord”. And if you don’t believe in such things, maybe Karma you do. At the very least you should acknowledge that it is hardly worth it to live in a vengeful world. Don’t get me wrong, I want them to burn too. But if the feelings get too strong then it’s time to meditate.
 
Forgive my rant.

I'm not happy at all about the short interest going down dramatically.

For all the damage shorts caused, they need to be SEVERELY punished. However, it seems like they're winning.

1. They successfully pushed down the stock price, spread all this FUD, and tarnish Tesla's brand.
2. They are getting away with this, as they're able to cover at very low prices
3. Not only that, they managed to cover millions of shares while STILL decreasing the stock price instead of increasing the stock price dramatically
4. They are destroying Elon as a person, and it is working, even though what he is doing is arguably some of the most effective and beneficial work for humanity and Earth.

WTF????

The big shorts need to be LOSING THEIR SHIRTS! It's one thing shorting to make a profit from trading, that's fine. I do that too. But it's another thing to create massive amounts of FUD and be the driver of negativity. That makes my blood boil. And seeing them get away with it by covering at ridiculously low prices, exactly what they intended, is beyond unjust.

I feel so bad for Elon, and I can't even imagine the psychological torture he is enduring for giving up a perfect opportunity to roast the shorts for the good of the institutional shareholders. I hope the market will be unusually kind to him starting Q3 2018.

Forgive my off topic please:

I support Tesla for the good it is trying to achieve.

Supporting things like Tesla increases my net worth
(which is NOT measured in any financial assets)
This war that Elon started is already won.
The battles along the way will have winners and losers on both sides.

 
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Tesla is the most unreliable brand of cars in the UK according to WhatCar survey. The Japanese cars are top as usual.

2018 What Car Reliability Survey

the media has picked up on it...

Range Rover and Land Rover models named among Britain's most unreliable | Daily Mail Online
Their methodology is unclear. What does their percentage *mean*?

Like, I would accept "average number of breakdowns per 100K miles" or "average number of warranty repairs per 100K miles", but what the hell does "75%" mean?
 
Would be curious to know if the unreliability is just mainly door handles, squeaky drive trains (which I believe newer versions have resolved this) or something much worse.
Yeah, there's no methodology given and no information. My car has actually "broken down" (been undriveable) only once. What "percent reliable" is that supposed to be?!?
 
Jezus, the difference in score between Tesla and 2nd to last and 5th to last place is rather large.
I'm trying to work out what they're measuring.

I *think*, after close reading of the article, that they simply ask "have you had any faults with your car in the last 12 months?" And the percent who have had NO problems is the "reliability" percentage.

So if everyone needed one door handle replaced, you'd get "0% reliability" out of that survey.

I conclude that it is not telling us much. :-(
 
Elon might make some non-Tesla-related announcement about something else he has been working on. Perhaps www.pravduh.com will go live. Or something else about AI or Mars.

The legendary $280 support seems solid. With the exception of 4 days in March 2018, TSLA hasn't really been substantially below it since March 2017.

$280 didn’t look very solid to me yesterday. Today definitely looked better though. You’d think I’d learn my lesson and continue to expect extreme volatility from TSLA but it still always manages to surprise me to some degree.

I didn’t think we’d go below 297 or so in this current dip. I’m still a bit dumbfounded. Not sure if musk pissed off too many large institutional holders or what with all the constant drama. Short interest has been dropping too, sadly.

Here’s to better days ahead. Logic tells me this would have to be near the bottom with everything we know. My medium term price target is still $420...
 
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Especially given this characterization of how Left operates:
In the finance world, Left, 46, is what is known as an “activist” short-seller. After he places a bet against the price of a stock, he then publishes research designed to torpedo the company’s value, often by airing accusations of fraud or abuse. This is entirely legal, as long as what he publishes is not itself fraudulent. Left takes short positions in companies across a whole range of industries — Tesla, Valeant, GoPro — and though he makes mistakes, he has an unusually high success rate. The Bounty Hunter of Wall Street

He shorted nvdia too, not so good
 
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I'm trying to work out what they're measuring.

I *think*, after close reading of the article, that they simply ask "have you had any faults with your car in the last 12 months?" And the percent who have had NO problems is the "reliability" percentage.

So if everyone needed one door handle replaced, you'd get "0% reliability" out of that survey.

I conclude that it is not telling us much. :-(
If they ask the same question to all car owners, it is telling us something. But the problem is that it doesn't distinguish between small easily fixable glitches, vs satisfaction crushing problems. With Tesla owner satisfaction at the top, I suspect most reported problems are the former.
 
TSLA bonds March 2019. Looks pretty good?
Bonds Detail 03/01/2019
What would be the price after Q3 call and upgraded rating to B+ ?
Those are the March convertibles. Looks like the market expects Tesla to pay 'em off in cash. If you feel like buying $360 strike call options for next March, these bonds are cheaper...

Oh. And these *aren't* institution-only. You can buy them.
 
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This is from Tesla's latest 10-Q:

"We offered resale value guarantees or similar buy-back terms to all direct customers who purchase vehicles and who financed their vehicle through one of our specified commercial banking partners. Subsequent to June 30, 2016, this program is available only in certain international markets. Resale value guarantees available for exercise within the 12 months following June 30, 2018 totaled $139.3 million in value."​

So I think it affects leased vehicles as well, although I'm not certain to what extent.

It affects indirect-leased vehicles. I guess getting rid of these would be a motivation to terminate existing indirect leases, now that I think about it.
 
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