TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Insideevs has its estimates for August and they look very good:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Not just Model 3 but also Model S and Model X. Model 3 sales don’t hurt them at all. In fact, S and X had their third best month of the year and it’s not even the last month of the quarter!

 

[gringotuanis]

My thoughts on the "going private" lawsuit:



Case closed.

I think the problem is the funding secured part...

I've wished for weeks he had left that phrase off because that is what is triggering things.

 

[biskit]

Tesla must be in big trouble. They just sent me this. Only took 2 years and a few months but who is counting! Demand is down by 1.


It’s time to get behind the wheel of the most incredible vehicle! Your Model 3 will soon be ready. Your pick-up location will be at our Costa Mesa Service location.

3020 Pullman St

Costa Mesa, CA 92626


Your Model 3 will be available between Wednesday, September 26 through Sunday, September 30.

Please reply with the day (or days) that will work best for you and if morning or afternoons are best for you. (All registrants must be present at delivery)

Once you are scheduled, you will be contacted to coordinate paperwork. In the meantime please complete the rest of your online profile, if you haven’t already.

Thank you,

 

[Unpilot]

Insideevs has its estimates for August and they look very good:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Not just Model 3 but also Model S and Model X. Model 3 sales don’t hurt them at all. In fact, S and X had their third best month of the year and it’s not even the last month of the quarter!

Must be the heavy discounts driving them S and X sales/sarcasm off

 

[gringotuanis]

So back to TSLA market action....

We had a really good Q2 ER and conference call. Stock shot up to 350.

Craziness ensued over taking the company private. Stock falls after Elon decides not to, casting doubt on his abilities. Then falls to 280 because many think he’s unhinged.

If this talk tonight goes well, it could go a long way in repairing the damage. He usually does well in this type of setting.

I doubt it does much. Remember the YouTube video he did after all the go private stuff...it might add like $10 per share...not really much for Tesla. Plus he keeps the pedo thing alive. What he did yesterday was way better...tweet referrals on the numbers and keep building cars. Once Tesla proves it's profitable no matter how many cars it makes for $35k...he will get his short burn (and so will I bwahahaha)

 

[beachbum77]

@donn Bailey @beachbum77 from Seeking Alpha, with no positive Tesla articles, but 67 negative articles, slumming here.
Are you doing research for another negative article?
bunch of "Hoohah"
Shorts were already quietly stampeding for the exits
short interest dropped from 39.1 million on 5/31 to 35 million on 8/1, already down close to 10.5% before Elon tweeted.
Your NYC1965 gets pissed when i mention "elephants quietly stampeding for the exits", afraid i will spook the dumb shorts

View attachment 332529

Hey Winfield. You read my articles and comment on them. You know they are not all negative. I would have no problem switching my puts to calls if Tesla would give me a good reason to do so. I wrote a lot about the SolarCity merger (which I thought was a bad move) and the inventory buildup early last year. I wrote last summer how I expected Jon McNeill to leave shortly after year end (he did). I have written that Tesla needs a COO (it does), and how the inventory has risen again this year (it has).

Regardless, you also know that short sellers can be forced out of their positions by the lenders of the shares they sold short. Look at your chart. The numbers are declining as the stock price has fallen recently. That is not a logical result on the part of the shorts. It is what we would expect to see from lenders recalling their shares who may be getting margin calls or just want back control of their shares.

 

[gringotuanis]

Don't get me wrong, I love Joe and think he's an amazing example of new media. He's open (some would say to a fault - therefore all the conspiracies) and as you say, thinks things from first principles. I just don't think the market and msm will be as receptive as I would, if anything controversial is talked about. I do hope I'm wrong.

You're not wrong, it's called if Musk talks about aliens, drugs like Ambien, or his stressed out feelings the stock will tank JUST LIKE IT HAS THE LAST MONTH because it feeds the short narrative that he's losing it. Don't apologise for that it's totally realistic, we just saw it happen.

 

[gringotuanis]

Hey Winfield. You read my articles and comment on them. You know they are not all negative. I would have no problem switching my puts to calls if Tesla would give me a good reason to do so. I wrote a lot about the SolarCity merger (which I thought was a bad move) and the inventory buildup early last year. I wrote last summer how I expected Jon McNeill to leave shortly after year end (he did). I have written that Tesla needs a COO (it does), and how the inventory has risen again this year (it has).

Regardless, you also know that short sellers can be forced out of their positions by the lenders of the shares they sold short. Look at your chart. The numbers are declining as the stock price has fallen recently. That is not a logical result on the part of the shorts. It is what we would expect to see from lenders recalling their shares who may be getting margin calls or just want back control of their shares.

So beachbum 77 exactly when are you switching to calls?

 

[RobStark]

Yeah, so think Elon said that they don't want to do that, but finance the Chinese Gigafactory through "local loans" - which wasn't explained but I'd interpret it as local loans to the local Tesla-owned Chinese corporation, secured against the new factory, where liability does not extend to Tesla. Encouraged by the Chinese government.

I.e. no new shares issued, no convertible bonds issued and no corporate bonds issued either.

If their cash flow goes to beyond 1b+ in Q3 then they could self-finance to a large degree without hurting growth.

Agreed.

Tesla may chose to finance European GF and 2nd American auto/battery GF with corporate bonds.

It would be nice to have a rainy day fund in case of severe recession, depression, other black swan event. So put next two/three years profits in the rainy day fund.

I also believe Tesla demand has much less downside risk than the legacy automakers but Tesla is not 100% immune from the Macros.

 

[RobStark]

Too funny. A SHORT is suing Elon for "price manipulation" in a period where SP dropped

I wonder if this opens the door to a counter-suit for stock bashing?

 

[X Fan]

I'm really tired of people that attack others if post is not superbly optimistic. Yes, that includes you too.

Here is one possible interpretation of your behaviour: you are new account, you want only positive stuff to be discussed, to quietly raise expectations, so that when Tesla can't live up to these expectations, then TSLA stock price suffers!!! So you're probably another form of Tesla short, no? Yeah, your shorts' game is getting more subtle and evolved, I'll give you that.

See? Very easy to come up with a vector of attack on almost anything said; @beachbum77 has been bearish, but reasonable, let him be, please.

Oh, and btw, I've blocked almost everyone that publicly stated that they've blocked someone, so 'Disagree' is the only way that I'd see if you're displeased.

67 negative articles is "reasonable"....geez....

 

[beachbum77]

So beachbum 77 exactly when are you switching to calls?

I have several times and got burned so far. The latest was on Aug 7th that I closed a few days later when the 8-K did not appear.

We are banking on a positive P/E ratio to draw down the stock price in early 2019 from where it is today and to rise back up from there. At that point we make the switch. That is why we have been watching the Jan 19 $200 puts as an indicator. No analyst is calling for anything below that except one at $195 I think. It all hinges on Q3. I expect this Q3 to mirror 3Q16 when Tesla sold everything with wheels and raised cash every way they could to reach a profit and it worked.

 

[beachbum77]

67 negative articles is "reasonable"....geez....

Read the articles, read the comments, then decide for yourself. Winfield knows they are not all negative. Far from it. Writing about a better way to handle an issue is automatically labeled "negative" if it disagrees with Musk's decision. Pointing out a future problem, i.e. deliveries (and solutions) also gets labeled "negative".

I have almost stopped writing altogether because I do not like SA's new paywall system that locks away people's articles unless you pay a monthly fee to read all but the very latest ones. Many of mine are/were a continuing storyline where I track an issue over time, so people could not read the previous links.

 

[dc_h]

I think you're being a bit misleading or at least obtuse, especially since you truncate musk's quote prior to the point that is at issue. The fact that he was "considering" taking it private is not at issue. The news article from CNBC says
The suit specifically cites Musk's Aug. 7 tweet about taking Tesla private and claiming that funding for that effort had been "secured."
The concept of whether the funding was secured is at issue. Left is obviously taking issue with Musk stating that as a fact, not an opinion.

Short seller Andrew Left sues Tesla and Elon Musk, claiming stock manipulation

In fact, reading the press article put out by Labaton/Sucharow they say
Specifically, on August 7, 2018, Defendants misrepresented they had “funding secured” for a buyout to take Tesla private and “nvestor support is confirmed.”

Labaton Sucharow Files Securities Class Action Lawsuit on Behalf of Shareholder Activist Andrew E. Left of Citron Research Against Elon Musk and Tesla, Inc.

Well, he had at least 20% of the stickowners on board and he had some filunfing secured. He didn’t say I have 100% of the stockholders on board and 37 billion commitment from Morgan Stanley.

I do wonder though, could stockholders sue shorts if it was determined they slandered or misrepresented information about Tesla that could have reduced the fair value?

 

[winfield100]

@donn Bailey @beachbum77 from Seeking Alpha, with no positive Tesla articles, but 67 negative articles, slumming here.
Are you doing research for another negative article?
bunch of "Hoohah"
Shorts were already quietly stampeding for the exits
short interest dropped from 39.1 million on 5/31 to 35 million on 8/1, already down close to 10.5% before Elon tweeted.
Your NYC1965 gets pissed when i mention "elephants quietly stampeding for the exits", afraid i will spook the dumb shorts

View attachment 332529

@beachbum77
more 4 u. short interest actually went -->UP<-- after Elons tweet, before dropping
I have __zero__ pity for any shorts

 

[beachbum77]

@beachbum77
more 4 u. short interest actually went -->UP<-- after Elons tweet, before dropping
I have __zero__ pity for any shorts
View attachment 332562

WInfield, it went up briefly as the stock price already started FALLING, then they fall in unison. That is not a logical result on the part of the shorts. It IS a logical pattern if lenders are recalling their shares in the event of further price declines which is what I believe has been happening.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Tesla must be in big trouble. They just sent me this. Only took 2 years and a few months but who is counting! Demand is down by 1.


It’s time to get behind the wheel of the most incredible vehicle! Your Model 3 will soon be ready. Your pick-up location will be at our Costa Mesa Service location.

3020 Pullman St

Costa Mesa, CA 92626


Your Model 3 will be available between Wednesday, September 26 through Sunday, September 30.

Please reply with the day (or days) that will work best for you and if morning or afternoons are best for you. (All registrants must be present at delivery)

Once you are scheduled, you will be contacted to coordinate paperwork. In the meantime please complete the rest of your online profile, if you haven’t already.

Thank you,

Make it down by 2...I just got the same email! And I'm way over here on the east coast.

Excited!
Dan

 

[kelly]

Too funny. A SHORT is suing Elon for "price manipulation" in a period where SP dropped

Especially given this characterization of how Left operates:
In the finance world, Left, 46, is what is known as an “activist” short-seller. After he places a bet against the price of a stock, he then publishes research designed to torpedo the company’s value, often by airing accusations of fraud or abuse. This is entirely legal, as long as what he publishes is not itself fraudulent. Left takes short positions in companies across a whole range of industries — Tesla, Valeant, GoPro — and though he makes mistakes, he has an unusually high success rate. The Bounty Hunter of Wall Street

 

[dmckinstry]

I wonder if this opens the door to a counter-suit for stock bashing?

If he's really been manipulating $TSLA by using his articles to profit in his own trading, it should be easy to prove.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Back on topic.. sort of.. I suspect the Rogan podcast will be fireworks. Not the best environment for Musk. Rogan is somewhat inflammatory and over the top, and might incite more imprudent remarks. Sam Harris would be more Elons speed , but Rogan has a much bigger audience. Certainly a must listen.

Interesting that you mention Sam Harris...I think he’s the reason Elon is going on the Joe Rogan podcast. Sam has been on JRE at least two or three times (highly recommend giving those a listen) and is good friends w/ Elon. I think that’s who Elon was referring to when he said “A lot of people whose judgment I respect have suggested this.”

Edit:
Oh right, this is Market Action...I purchased some short-term calls today. We'll see if the "Joe Rogan trade" pays off (or was a terrible idea). 2-3 hours with these two, anything can happen.