TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Driver Dave]

Why don't people understand that in order to achieve something amazing, you have to work for years at a loss before realizing the gains?

The bigger you are investing in the future, the harder it is for the past to catch up.

The old car makers are doomed.

 

[Starno]

Why don't people understand that in order to achieve something amazing, you have to work for years at a loss before realizing the gains?

They just think Tesla will never realize gains, they think Tesla has a broken business model.

To them it's not like the medical student, it's more like someone constantly taking debt to buy cars, TVs, useless stuff for years, and expecting a return at some point.

That's what they think.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm reading Reddit on people's sentiments on Tesla, and it is really bearish. They keep repeating points like Tesla's never made a profit or cash burn or competitors will kill Tesla. And it made me think.

The story of Tesla reminds me of a story between the high school grad vs the med school student.

If you look at the net income of both from the start of high school graduation for 10-15 years, the high school grad is going to be making consistent income year over year. The med school student will have continual losses that grows bigger and bigger as the student goes into their later years of study as tuition gets more expensive by the year.

Does anyone go at the med school student yelling "WHY HAVEN'T YOU MADE ANY PROFIT FOR OVER 10 YEARS??? High school Joe is making money every year. How can you possibly catch up?"

Because anyone with half a brain knows that the moment the med school student graduates, he'll make more money in one year than the high school grad makes in 5-10 years. His knowledge over the past 12 years or so of training gives him a near insurmountable advantage in money making abilities over the high school grad that it is nearly impossible to catch up. Oh and, banks will have absolutely no problem lending money to the consistently money losing med school student for his studies, for obvious reasons of future earning potential.

Why don't people understand that in order to achieve something amazing, you have to work for years at a loss before realizing the gains?

1st mistake...reading Reddit.

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm reading Reddit on people's sentiments on Tesla, and it is really bearish.

Reddit is heavily trolled by anti-Tesla accounts with frequent brigading, especially /r/investing, but even /r/teslamotors lately.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

A fine representation of the human race.

Or a fine representative to the human race. ;-)

 

[RobStark]

Remember, It takes a few weeks to deliver M3s once they've left the factory, so every M3 that will be delivered by Q3 will probably have been made by next week, so him talking about "double the deliveries" contains very little estimation.

Not if they save California, and particularly San Jose-San Francisco Bay Area deliveries til the end.

 

[RobStark]

the continuous grammar issues in his articles

Is Monsieur Lambert a native French speaker?

 

[beachbum77]

OMG...Toni Saccanaghi absolutely nailing it? Wow.

First time I have heard any major journalist nail the "competition" argument. Maybe people are starting to come around.

Dan

I think Toni Saccanaghi is the best analyst on Wall Street. He is measured and very balanced. I completely agree with his takes in this interview. His one comment I questioned was linking Model 3 to the new Mercedes. The new Mercedes EV and I-Pace are not aimed to compete with Model 3. They are aimed at Model X and the SUV market. Ford, GM, BMW, MB, Audi are all conceding that auto sales are dying and focused heavily on the crossover and SUV markets.

What I saw over the last few weeks at dealers here was SUV sales are dominating every other segment. I watched one SUV after another being nearly the only vehicles delivered. The Jeep Chrysler dealer delivered a Challenger and the Mazda dealer sold a used Ford F-150 Raptor pickup. Everything else was SUVs. Tesla needs to get the Model Y unveiled as soon as possible.

 

[Seesaw]

The Model 3 should of been a SUV

 

[beachbum77]

I just got an email from Tesla that my M3 (performance dual motor) is finishing production and almost ready for delivery. Only reason I am posting this is that I am in Canada (near Vancouver) - it is promising they are doing some Canadian deliveries again.

How is the BC $5,000 rebate fund holding up? Did you already reserve your spot?

 

[Fact Checking]

His one comment I questioned was linking Model 3 to the new Mercedes. The new Mercedes EV and I-Pace are not aimed to compete with Model 3.

It's not Mercedes or you who decide which cars compete with each other but consumers of EVs, and according to key EV specs of the new EV-Mercedes it is barely in the class of the Model 3/Y today - let alone that of the S/X expected in 2020.

That's the reason why Toni Saccanaghi compared the Mercedes EV to the Model 3/Y.

Mercedes will have to up their game if they want to compete, wishful thinking alone won't work.

 

[beachbum77]

I really hope Tesla doubles production and/or deliveries this quarter.

I do, however, hate how this resets expectations. It would have been nice for once to have a really solid BEAT. Now it seems we are getting set up for once again another miss. Even if Tesla, say, double deliveries (which would be huge), it will be a miss, because production wasn’t doubled. Or if we are 200 short of doubling, it’s a miss even though it is a grand slam home run. I hope it doesn’t matter, and I know in mosts respects it won’t. It just peeves me a little.


I do advise that everyone tempers their expectations and remember what guidance was from q2 letter and call were. Let’s just have a beat on that guidance and pass off this newest letter as over exhuberance. Only thing I’m hoping for is GAAP profit, I’ll be happy with FCF +

Hopefully, Jerome will be better at under promising and over delivering, that's if Elon does not walk all over his comments in the conference calls. Musk has had a bad habit of doing that to everyone else. I find it rude and demoralizing. I have fired repeat offenders for doing it. It tells employees their opinions are not valued. Horrible message to convey. Completely destroys team building.

 

[RobStark]

The Model 3 should of been a SUV

SUVs are less aerodynamic. And heavier.

A battery electric compact SUV would require more battery cells to hit 220 miles of range.

Which would have made the vehicle significantly more expensive that the Model 3.

Jaguar is making a direct Model Y competitor starting at ~$70k and so will Mercedes next year.

As is Model 3 won't reach the heart of the market $35k price point til next year.

Tesla's entry level vehicle does not suffer from lack of demand.

 

[RobStark]

the new EV-Mercedes it is barely in the class of the Model 3 today - let alone that of the S/X expected in 2020.

The Mercedes EQC is a direct competitor to the Model Y. It is a compact (almost a midsize) SUV.

At roughly twice the price.

 

[Krugerrand]

Or a fine representative to the human race. ;-)

Do you think the Martians have a positive view of whiskey and weed?

 

[1101011]

Is Monsieur Lambert a native French speaker?

Yes, he is. And that accounts for some of those difficult, or awkward constructions.

 

[Fact Checking]

The Mercedes EQC is a direct competitor to the Model Y. It is a compact (almost a midsize) SUV.

Yeah, and the Y will be based on the 3, so the comparison to the Model 3 is fair.

At roughly twice the price.

Yeah, Mercedes Benz will first have to demonstrate that they are able to build a competitive EV at competitive prices that consumers are willing to buy, and at volume.

Mercedes EVs have half the range, fraction of the charging speed and twice the price I am not sure the demand will be there.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The EQC was rather unimpressive. It's not very big, but as heavy as a Model X, and most of the specs are merely okay. In my opinion Mercedes is definitely the underdog in comparison with Tesla/Jaguar/Audi/BMW. But if they can sell it at say $20k under the i-Pace, it should still do fine.

 

[wipster]

Do you think the Martians have a positive view of whiskey and weed?

Ask Elon, I think he might be one wanting to go home!

 

[wipster]

The Model 3 should of been a SUV

Put a station wagon-like backend on an AWD 3 and call it a CUV...