TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dmckinstry]

Are you saying that the children of people of different races tend not to be as strong and/or intelligent as children from couples of the same race? Show me the proof Prof.

I think he's saying the opposite. Too much inbreeding is bad for the gene pool. Usually mongrels are better off than purebreds.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Fact, are you saying someone shopping for an SUV will pick a sports sedan instead because it is a BEV? I think you are wrong. I took a relative to test drive the Model 3. While she thought it was cool and fun and "fast as hell", it was $25,000 above her budget, did not have a rear hatch, no sunroof, and did not sit high enough to suit her. She also did not like the rear seat room. Clearly, she had her mind set on an SUV. Had she been able to test drive a Model Y things might have gone very differently since she can afford just about anything on 4 wheels.

She walked out with a completely loaded CX-5 Grand Touring for $0 down (even the first payment was made for her) and $391/month (tax included) on a 36-month .00000001 (that is virtually 0%) money factor Chase lease. The vehicle has features not even available on the Model 3. So she got everything she wanted without putting $5,000 down and a payment half what the Model 3 payment would have been for 72 months on a purchase. SHE is the typical mass market buyer/lessee on a self-imposed budget. Oh, and she came out of a Mercedes C-Class lease. lol. This is what Tesla has to contend with. Look around you on the road or freeway. SUV's are taking over. Tesla needs the Model Y "yesterday". (At least here in the U.S. I can't speak for Europe or Canada)

Yeah, well my colleague Dorris in accounts wants a sedan. Checkmate SUVs.

 

[CorneliusXX]

LOL... I could type "the sky is blue" and get a disagree. Just watch...

EDIT: I rest my case. lol

I looked up. Not blue over here. So disagree.

 

[wipster]

I think he's saying the opposite. Too much inbreeding is bad for the gene pool. Usually mongrels are better off than purebreds.

That's been my experience.. I hope that's what he was saying, these big words confoos me...

 

[Krugerrand]

75 delivery centers scattered across the U.S. And they are not estimating production, they are estimating deliveries. Without inside information, they have absolutely no other way to get the numbers. Most states do not release registration information and those that do take much longer to do so.

So you tell us how they get the numbers.

You’re now out of context.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm reading Reddit on people's sentiments on Tesla, and it is really bearish. They keep repeating points like Tesla's never made a profit or cash burn or competitors will kill Tesla. And it made me think.

The story of Tesla reminds me of a story between the high school grad vs the med school student.

If you look at the net income of both from the start of high school graduation for 10-15 years, the high school grad is going to be making consistent income year over year. The med school student will have continual losses that grows bigger and bigger as the student goes into their later years of study as tuition gets more expensive by the year.

Does anyone go at the med school student yelling "WHY HAVEN'T YOU MADE ANY PROFIT FOR OVER 10 YEARS??? High school Joe is making money every year. How can you possibly catch up?"

Because anyone with half a brain knows that the moment the med school student graduates, he'll make more money in one year than the high school grad makes in 5-10 years. His knowledge over the past 12 years or so of training gives him a near insurmountable advantage in money making abilities over the high school grad that it is nearly impossible to catch up. Oh and, banks will have absolutely no problem lending money to the consistently money losing med school student for his studies, for obvious reasons of future earning potential.

Why don't people understand that in order to achieve something amazing, you have to work for years at a loss before realizing the gains?

This is such a good post

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I think Toni Saccanaghi is the best analyst on Wall Street. He is measured and very balanced. I completely agree with his takes in this interview. His one comment I questioned was linking Model 3 to the new Mercedes. The new Mercedes EV and I-Pace are not aimed to compete with Model 3. They are aimed at Model X and the SUV market. Ford, GM, BMW, MB, Audi are all conceding that auto sales are dying and focused heavily on the crossover and SUV markets.

What I saw over the last few weeks at dealers here was SUV sales are dominating every other segment. I watched one SUV after another being nearly the only vehicles delivered. The Jeep Chrysler dealer delivered a Challenger and the Mazda dealer sold a used Ford F-150 Raptor pickup. Everything else was SUVs. Tesla needs to get the Model Y unveiled as soon as possible.

I actually think you’re right here, but both compare very poorly with the X. The iPace is an “SUV” that’s roughly the size of the Model 3. And the Mercedes’ specs are crap even if it was out today, let alone 2 years from now. They both “compete” with the X, sure, but in much the same way RC Cola competes with Coca Cola. It’s accurate, but let’s be real: nobody wants RC.

 

[HG Wells]

Do you think the Martians have a positive view of whiskey and weed?

Well we Martians where big supporters of spreading the red weed in the first invasion attempt in 1895.
But alcohol is a poison to us just like our distant relatives who are remembered in your Tripod stories.

For those of you who are unaware of our distant cousins (Excellent way to introduce your children to SciFi).

 

[MartinAustin]

Why don't people understand that in order to achieve something amazing, you have to work for years at a loss before realizing the gains?

Generally, shorts are educated about how businesses work and they KNOW that Tesla is in this growth/investment phase... and it's pretty plain that they are emerging out of it.

This is why there is such a massive attack on Tesla in the media going on right now. All they can do is conjure up fake discredits. E.g. USAF is looking into Elon pot-smoking. They're not... but the headline sure works for now until they can make up something else.

 

[Intl Professor]

Are you saying that the children of people of different races tend not to be as strong and/or intelligent as children from couples of the same race? Show me the proof Prof.

i would never fall into that trap. I'm no William Shockley and I protested his talk on our campus decades ago. The argument is that in-breeding can build weakness. Witness Spanish kings and cleft palates centuries ago. I would think there's evidence with ancient Pharaohs as well. Mixed breeding permits further evolution, either strengthening what promotes survival or mutating it either out of existence or another step above the ladder. I would say the same for cultures. The same argument applies to freedom of thought. In the old days, before the Iraq war, I got much more out of conversation with what few conservative friends I had than those who agreed with me. Maybe I'm wrong but this is my understanding of natural selection.

I know a physician in Thailand, the owner of several hospitals, who made a version of your argument about mixing my blood with my bride to be. On average, she said, the product would be more intelligent than of one of what we falsely call similar race.

I'll venture into the political implications of what I said. Of those voters believing in or advocating anti-miscegenation laws a higher probability of them voted for Trump in the last election. That can't be verified, of course, but you get the drift. It could be verified in a future election by examining trends in, say, North Carolina now.

That's what purity of culture is all about—tribalism.

 

[wipster]

i would never fall into that trap. I'm no William Shockley and I protested his talk on our campus decades ago. The argument is that in-breeding can build weakness. Witness Spanish kings and cleft palates centuries ago. I would think there's evidence with ancient Pharaohs as well. Mixed breeding permits further evolution, either strengthening what promotes survival or mutating it either out of existence or another step above the ladder. I would say the same for cultures. The same argument applies to freedom of thought. In the old days, before the Iraq war, I got much more out of conversation with what few conservative friends I had than those who agreed with me. Maybe I'm wrong but this is my understanding of natural selection.

I know a physician in Thailand, the owner of several hospitals, who made a version of your argument about mixing my blood with my bride to be. On average, she said, the product would be more intelligent than of one of what we falsely call similar race.

I'll venture into the political implications of what I said. Of those voters believing in or advocating anti-miscegenation laws a higher probability of them voted for Trump in the last election. That can't be verified, of course, but you get the drift. It could be verified in a future election by examining trends in, say, North Carolina now.

Believe me Prof, I agree with you 100%. It's just that you could read your last paragraph as the exact opposite, and I'm happy you clarified it. We're on the same page. I mean I'm half Norwegian and half Australian and I think it's a good mix... ;-)

 

[KarenRei]

Can we move racial superiority posts to another thread? Thanks.

 

[Intl Professor]

That's been my experience.. I hope that's what he was saying, these big words confoos me...

Me too, that's why I have to look up mis... every time for the spelling and to make sure of meaning.

 

[wipster]

Can we move racial superiority posts to another thread? Thanks.

I think we'll just stop it right here Karen...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

EM bail Jerome out? I do not have the desire to go through a lengthy history of Jerome and Tesla but I believe it is Jerome who has bailed out EM on several occasions.

Jerome is also the only one ever (that I know of) that has made comeback after being sidelined (taking personal time after Model X fiasco)
Tesla has (and has had) many great leaders, but Jerome has rare quality: being able to endure working with Elon.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I think we'll just stop it right here Karen...

Oh.

I thought she meant the Martian stuff.

 

[oneday]

Hopefully, Jerome will be better at under promising and over delivering, that's if Elon does not walk all over his comments in the conference calls. Musk has had a bad habit of doing that to everyone else. I find it rude and demoralizing. I have fired repeat offenders for doing it. It tells employees their opinions are not valued. Horrible message to convey. Completely destroys team building.

My god man. Please spare me. Trolls and their righteous indignation is so phony. Save us your moral outrage, try to come up with a better narrative. The only one I’ve heard from you that’s worth $.02 is they are delivery constrained. Go stalk some parking lots and report back over at SA we will all be tuning in over there for you.

And one other point. Yea the sky is blue now. But really in a lot of places around the world it’s slowly getting covered by a yellowish tinge. It’s called smog. Just like today you can say Tesla loses money every quarter. The trick here is to look past the tip of your nose. Have a little foresight. If we continue on this path the sky will be less blue every day. Tesla is really the earths best hope today. But to see that you need to take the future into consideration.

 

[dhrivnak]

Well I must say as a long investor I have been disappointed over the last few months as in my mind the numbers are not adding up. Tesla claimed 5000 a week production in June, but when we looked at July sales we have some 14,200 cars. WELL short of 5000/week especially since we thought there was an overhand as they were holding back June deliveries. So I was hoping for north of 20,000 in August, again we thought there was an overhang and Insideevs is showing only 17,800 deliveries, again well below 5000/month. So from my view I continue to see overpromising and under delivering. Yes there is solid improvement but it appears Tesla is still well short of the June goal of 5,000/week and we are in September. Then add in the crazy tweets and less than stellar Joe Rogan interview it is just pure frustration from my view and I can understand the low stock price.

I hope Tesla focuses on meeting their production goals month in and month out.

 

[TNEVol]

Ah, fair. Make that ~3 seconds for me.

Of course, this doesn’t apply to road trips. Which I find myself doing much more often than with any prior car.

Actually, this is a good argument against EV’s: sure, at home you can just plug in, but you’re going to be stuck supercharging all the time because road trips in them are so damn fun.

I actually attempted to calculate the "time to charge" using my 5 seconds at home and my 30-45 minutes in MANY road trips. Then I compared that to the conservative estimate of 15 minutes twice a week to get off of the interstate fill up and get back on and up to speed. I did no road trips in my 2006 Altima for obvious reasons. Not surprisingly I found that over the course of one year I spent much less time charging my Classic P85 wich now has 115000 miles on it. Our M3 tilts this advantage evn further.

 

[AlMc]

Jerome is also the only one ever (that I know of) that has made comeback after being sidelined (taking personal time after Model X fiasco)
Tesla has (and has had) many great leaders, but Jerome has rare quality: being able to endure working with Elon.

Quite true, and since he has left before on his own volition it means he has the cojones to leave again on his own. That possibility is also well known by the board and EM. Nice to be holding a trump card.