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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Look, Tesla made the right call in Q2 by trying to build up a supply of RWD units while holding back deliveries to not bust the 200K number before July 1. I think everyone expected that. What seems to have caught them (and everyone else) off guard was how many opted to switch to the AWD and P variants when they became available. Since then they are just not getting enough new orders for RWD to clear out that inventory. So they are doing the smart thing: Admit you have an inventory and clear it out fast.

Hopefully, they will do the same for S & X. It has already started with new inventory being posted to the website. For months they had no new cars listed for either model, when you could call a showroom and get called back within an hour with a selection of available cars.
 
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The mere idea of somebody being of autistic spectrum starting and running corporations. (facepalm).

If Musk has anything it could be obvious "entrepreneur syndrome" ADHD. But it's irrelevant really.
There are plenty of interviews with social and cheerful Musk. He is obviously under heavy stress and in possible social isolation, pretty common among very busy people.

My mother-in-law says that every male is autistic. And she says she's never wrong. :rolleyes:
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is no SR.
That would be insane!

A Model Y with the SR battery pack could sweep the competition for years to come. If Tesla does not offer the SR it could likely kill the company. IMHO no other Tesla model will sell anywhere near as many units as an SR Model Y. If they had announced the Y in 2016 I would have been buying calls and shares with the profits.
 
If anyone has any informed guesswork on what the front motor production is limited to and how long it will take to resolve, I'd love to know.
Front motor is of AC type, probably made on the same line together with motors for S and X. I would suspect they didn't ramp production in time and "surprising" rise of interest in S and X ate all reserves. Who would "think" that bigger exposure by driving Model 3 would attract more clients even to more expensive models. Enigma....
 
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At the expense of destroying the economy of the Crimea, causing nobody to vacation there, and for the eastern Ukraine activities, creating a lot of "why is my son being sent to fight in the Ukraine when Putin claims our army is not in the Ukraine" stuff, which is really not popular. Russia's military is competent in some ways, but I still feel they're scoring own-goals.

True, but I think that’s probably more on Putin than anyone else.
 
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They are wildly not useful indicators in the case of TSLA, which I've followed for its entire history.
Frankly I have to disagree with this statement. The options market has been a very good indicator in the overall direction of the stock over any realistic period of time. Even including a weekly around earnings events. Is it off by value, sure. but directionally I have found it more accurate than not and been able to leverage it effectively 90% of the time. That's better than my normal 80% hit rate.
 
If anyone has any informed guesswork on what the front motor production is limited to and how long it will take to resolve, I'd love to know.

I always thought AWD was built in the Sprung Tent, because GA2 doesn't have a station to install the front motor. That would limit the AWD+P output to 20-25% of the total, or about 1,000/week.

If that's the case then I guess they are already working on extending GA3 with AWD assembly.

If it's elsewhere then the Gigafactory would be the bottleneck - it's all highly automated so they might be waiting for more robots.

What I don't understand: why don't they increase the price of AWD to $6,000? Best way to shift demand between variants is price. Unless they are certain they'll solve it shortly.
 
I always thought AWD was built in the Sprung Tent, because GA2 doesn't have a station to install the front motor. That would limit the AWD+P output to 20-25% of the total, or about 1,000/week.

If that's the case then I guess they are already working on extending GA3 with AWD assembly.

If it's elsewhere then the Gigafactory would be the bottleneck - it's all highly automated so they might be waiting for more robots.

What I don't understand: why don't they increase the price of AWD to $6,000? Best way to shift demand between variants is price. Unless they are certain they'll solve it shortly.
AWD is almost certainly not just being built in the tent. At least 2/3 weekly production, currently built are AWD.
 
Why? I said high-functioning, and the spectrum is *wide*.
I may be wrong, of course, but Temple Grand (a real expert, being autistic herself) thought that even Steve Jobs was on the spectrum.
let compare Temple Grandin with other names,
The world needs all kinds of minds
Look at her face: eye contact, level of facial mimics. Actually everything cloth choice included.
While eye contact is cultural feature she is from the country where eye contact is essential.
And I didn't go into what she was saying. (and she is very accurate in her presentation). Asperger are meticulous.
And take any Elon Musk speech, or whatever Steve Jobs, or any other name of entrepreneurs you choose. The level of chaos they bring is impossible to ignore.
To clarify: I had enough of Asperger colleagues in my life. Probably half of modern theoretic physics and quarter of modern programming advances is lifted by such people..

the difference in behavior between people who can not into social interactions, people who forgotten social interactions because of solitary work and people who refuse to follow social rules is trivial to spot.
 
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This is actually the fifth or sixth data point confirming something I figured out several weeks ago:

There's a major bottleneck in front motor production.

Tesla can't make as many AWD models as they can make total models. But RWD demand is saturated, unless they can convince some people to either
(a) switch from AWD to RWD to get their car much faster (and higher chances of higher tax credit, too)
(b) buy RWD now because they can get the car on short notice and they were waiting until they could do that. (This was a thing with model S. Some people really didn't want to be in the queue at all, but jumped in when the cars started being delivered quickly and they learned that -- these are the people who keep buying the demo models out from the stores.)

If anyone has any informed guesswork on what the front motor production is limited to and how long it will take to resolve, I'd love to know.
Don't forget :
(c) buy RWD LR instead of waiting on RWD SR, if they were already planning on buying the PUP (with halving of Federal EV incentives on the way, perhaps some people will decide that the extra $5250 to get a LR RWD PUP is worth it, since it represents a ~42% discount on the LR battery and the advantages it brings, plus getting it now vs later)

Of course anyone set on a SR RWD w/o PUP would not be enticed.
 
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Standard Range taking a range hit to put Model Y SR under 200 miles of range would not be acceptable to Elon,it would hurt the Tesla brand, and Model Y needs a tow hitch to not be ridiculous.

That’s why I think the LR battery back for the 3 should be the standard pack for the Y. Since we don’t know the specs for the Y, we don’t know what the range would be, but probably high 200s.
 
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