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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Yes, some of my humor is derived from sarcasm.

I will disagree however that it is an inventory problem. It is a logical belief that every Model 3 made is a Model 3 sold. The truth is self evident as they can be sending these cars anywhere.

The only argument that makes remote sense is a -production problem- problem in the sense that P and AWD may be lacking components to build. So between an idle production line and RWD units, you make RWD.

Between sending cars east or overseas and have them not count in Q3 might as well deliver them off the line to the east bay public.

When I showed you the lot of 3’s you said a company without inventory is a company about to run out of business.

Tesla HAS to stock inventory for someone to do same day drive off.

Bears who take a short position based on demand and inventory are either lying about the position or going to be homeless.

SA articles on Musk self immolating TSLA are about 100 times more credible than inventory and demand problems.
And I still feel that way. The only "problem" is not admitting you have inventory. Every automaker has excess inventory. That is the only way they can stock dealers. I still do not understand why no one wanted to believe Tesla had some on hand. Why is that a bad thing? I get assailed every time I mention or point it out, getting called a liar or a hater. Well, now the truth is out.

Tesla had to stock up ahead of and delay deliveries to push 200K into Q3, which I wrote months ago, would be the right strategy. Even Fred on Electrek wrote this week he thought batch-building was something new. It is not. But when you find you have too many of a particular configuration and not enough incoming orders, you put them out there for immediate sale as Jerome is now doing. They should have started doing this in late July as the order bank grew. As I have written, they have M3's sitting here in Jacksonville that have been on the lot for months. Pretending they do not exist is a bad idea for the bottom line.

In my experience, we are a society geared towards immediate gratification. At least here in the U.S. Offer people the option of a car today instead of three months from now and many will happily switch colors or other options. We have read of some doing that this weekend in Fremont. But people can't do it if you do not give them the option by telling them the cars exist. That has been the basis of my articles on the subject. Let the people know and move them out. They should start doing sales near the end of every quarter. "Folks, here is what we are overstocked on due to canceled orders or (fill in the blank). They are available in these locations on a first come, first served basis. Go to Tesla.com for more details".

Next, they need to offer what is not sold to the general public and pick up more brand new customers, but only after anyone with an order or a reservation gets a shot.
 
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I've taken alot of hits on my calls lately as well. Here's to waiting out the FUD!

PS I don't think the weed thing was a big deal. He clearly said he doesn't do week due to effects on productivity. Media sure blew it out of proportion and no one seemed to post even contextual video. It was a good interview overall.
Friday was basically panic selling on no real news at all
THC was way overblown by media and CAO leaving basically a non event since the guy sounds like wanted to do job hopping at the expense of $TSLA
Barring anything earth shattering news tonight I bet we bounce up hard starting tomorrow
Between now and first week of November sounds like SP recovery
 
That’s why I think the LR battery back for the 3 should be the standard pack for the Y. Since we don’t know the specs for the Y, we don’t know what the range would be, but probably high 200s.

IMO they should put in just enough cells to reach 220 miles EPA range in order to get the base price as low as possible.
 
It'll be nearly unwanted elsewhere, since trucks are generally not in favor anywhere outside of NA.

Trucks are big in Latin America and Australia.

Watching a TeslaBjorn video I saw a Norwegian rescue vehicle was a Dodge Ram crew cab.

Once production is in full swing I would like to see the Tesla pickup marketed to rural Scandinavia. At least for a while

I think it will sell like hotcakes in Australia since making a RHD model is rather a simple affair.
 
For a base unit I would agree. But I think more people will order the Y LR since more would be inclined to travel in a Model Y then I think will use a Model 3 to travel.

If the spread between SR and LR is just 220 vs ~280-290, I’m not seeing a point in the SR. That’s something like 18kWh. And, as mentioned earlier by someone else: there’s not much point in a sub-200 mile Y. I’ll reiterate: I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see LR being the only option on the Y. That or the equivalent to the LR 3 being the SR Y.
 
Frankly I have to disagree with this statement. The options market has been a very good indicator in the overall direction of the stock over any realistic period of time. Even including a weekly around earnings events. Is it off by value, sure. but directionally I have found it more accurate than not and been able to leverage it effectively 90% of the time. That's better than my normal 80% hit rate.
So what technique are you using to make a directional prediction based on the options chain? It must be something much more esoteric than anything I know of, so I'd love to learn. All I see are badly mispriced options (and I've made money off of that); what analytic are you using to see directional movement? (There is certainly a lot of information in the options market which I am not picking up, so I'm sure you're seeing something.)

The bonds have verged on uncorrelated with the stock; even the convertible bonds are less correlated than they should be.
 
I always thought AWD was built in the Sprung Tent, because GA2 doesn't have a station to install the front motor. That would limit the AWD+P output to 20-25% of the total, or about 1,000/week.
The tent is used for all P models, apparently. I believed that when they opened up general orders for AWD, it meant that they'd added a front motor station to the other line, and I think more than 25% of what's being shipped is AWD. You could be right but... it doesn't sound right.

What I don't understand: why don't they increase the price of AWD to $6,000? Best way to shift demand between variants is price. Unless they are certain they'll solve it shortly.
This tells me they're certain they'll solve it shortly. They *did* raise the price of other options.
 
Ok. That would mean that at 5k/week output they'd be consuming 8,333 motors, which might be a bottleneck at the Gigafactory.

But if that's the case, why didn't they increase AWD price?
Nobody likes it if you change prices too often.

I am *pretty sure* that they have a bottleneck on front motor production. My *wild guess* is that it's a supplier bottleneck and *not* a bottleneck in their actual motor production line -- i.e. they can make more front motors once they start getting more of some tiny part. My guess is that they know when the supplier is supposed to deliver the increased numbers, and it's soon, so they're just holding the fort down until the additional parts show up.
 
Yes, I got the same email.

Usually people post email they have received from Tesla but I didn't see this.
Did anyone else get this sort of email today?

mail


Hi XXXXX,
We have a limited number of Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive vehicles on display that are available for immediate delivery.
As a first day reservation holder, you’re invited to take advantage of this opportunity on a first-come, first-served basis.
We will be extending this invitation to additional Model 3 reservation holders ‪on Monday, September 10.


ORDER NOW
 
I think, for reasons that I don't fully understand, a ton of people want the AWD, and playing with the AWD price plus/minus a grand or so isn't really going to change that.
Well, at the Drive Electric Week event I just went to here in Ithaca, several people were nervously asking whether the RWD cars were *really* OK in the snow. (Having had my RWD Model S for five years, I was able to reassure them.)

People who don't have someone to reassure them about that are ordering AWD because they're afraid to buy an RWD car in the snowbelt, due to assumptions which come from ICE cars and are irrelevant. I think this accounts for a lot of it.

Also, AWD is a surprisingly cheap option. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they raise the price of it, given the demand.
 
In my experience, we are a society geared towards immediate gratification. At least here in the U.S.
You're on a forum full of long-termers who are good at delayed gratification. We recognize that there are a bunch of people who are immediate-gratification junkies -- and that marketers prey on them -- but we mostly aren't among them, so we don't understand it instinctively.

Offer people the option of a car today instead of three months from now and many will happily switch colors or other options.
It would be interesting to work out what percentages.
 
The Red Army was an organization where it took more courage to retreat than advance.
Robin
Well, during the Russian Civil War, it was pretty much "get shot for treason if the Whites win", and during WWII it was "your family will be enslaved by the Nazis if you lose", so they had what you might call *strong motivation*.
 
I'm perfectly happy taking more money selling a much higher strike put 210-230$ and as well a closer call 330-350$ where the premium is much higher.
Be careful selling calls as TSLA reverses. I don't know how long you've been trading it, but this stock can move up pretty quickly. This looks like a great time to sell puts, but I would personally be very cautious selling calls at this point in the dip.
 
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