TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tiger]

Tesla should hire Neil deGrasse Tyson to Tesla board of directors

Neil deGrasse Tyson on Elon Musk, Trump's Space Force

 

[wipster]

Börsengang von Nio überschattet: Tesla-Probleme schaden sogar der Konkurrenz

Headline of the German "Manager Magazin" was: Tesla schadet sogar der Konkurrenz ...

Please free to translate. OMG... max FUD.

To quote Aerosmith, "Same old story, same old song and dance my friend..."

 

[bdy0627]

What happened to all the trolls? Was there some kind of blanket ban? Otherwise, how to interpret the dynamic of them being very active in the media and here on TMC while now relaxing? The stock price was driven down far enough so that big money could stock up again?

Isn't it nice and calm? Way better. They aren't fond of this new stock trend upwards. They'll be back when we top and start another dip.

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon two days ago:

Mauricio Hernandez on Twitter

The NYT was right, clearly a nervous wreck!!

 

[KarenRei]

Trevor Noah cracks some poorly done jokes about Musk smoking pot on the Daily Show:

I expected some jokes... "ha ha crazy CEO smokes pot!" and the like. But rather, Trevor:

• Warns Tesla investors about their assets going up in smoke and claims that the stock is way down
• Accuses Musk of also having smoked meth (????)
• Insists multiple times (including in the segment title) that Musk was "high" on the podcast (he very demonstrably wasn't)

On the upside, people in the comments section aren't having any of it (I joined them ). Lots of people took Trevor to task over his comments. Even some people who don't like Elon.

 

[winfield100]

looks like Nikola is losing $2 Billion patent infringement suit soon
Tesla was awarded 2 US Patents on August 14th, 2018 for their semi truck design.

The US Patent Examiner ruled the Tesla design is unique compared to the Nikola design.

After Tesla learned their patent would be allowed and would issue, the Tesla semi began a cross-country trip to major customers to firm up orders.

It seems certain Nikola will lose its suit against Tesla, and Tesla's stock price should bump upward when Nikola officially drops their suit.

Tesla remains the sole company targeting the production of semi trucks and also the installation of charging infrastructure to power them on long distance trips.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon two days ago:

The NYT was right, clearly a nervous wreck!!

Look at those glassy eyes. Clearly stoned at work. Bankwupcy coming in mir daze.
/S

 

[tivoboy]

The problem I have with NIO is: I don't see how 1B is enough for a car company to survive.

yeah, it's not really only about what is raised. Once they have liquidity, they setup larger credit facilities and start to add debit financing more easily and cheaply.

for the moment the trade is working out nicely. I'm going to change my first exit to 10.5$ (from 10$) and only 25% of the position at that level (entry 5.75$).

Still can't get anyone to buy my sept 292.5$ tesla calls for more than 10$, I really want 11$.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It seems certain Nikola will lose its suit against Tesla, and Tesla's stock price should bump upward when Nikola officially drops their suit.

In my view, the SP shouldn't at all be affected by Nikola dropping the suit. It was obviously a PR stunt from the get-go, with a snowballs chance in hell of going anywhere. But I wouldn't mind a bump...

 

[Don TLR]

10c per seems way too cheap. Like these are going to be the Cadillac of dirt bricks, no? I hope they are embossing them with The Boring Company logo.

No logo

Elon Musk's Boring Company Shares Video of Its Bricks Being Manufactured

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 334600

looks like Nikola is losing $2 Billion patent infringement suit soon
Tesla was awarded 2 US Patents on August 14th, 2018 for their semi truck design.

The US Patent Examiner ruled the Tesla design is unique compared to the Nikola design.

After Tesla learned their patent would be allowed and would issue, the Tesla semi began a cross-country trip to major customers to firm up orders.

It seems certain Nikola will lose its suit against Tesla, and Tesla's stock price should bump upward when Nikola officially drops their suit.

Tesla remains the sole company targeting the production of semi trucks and also the installation of charging infrastructure to power them on long distance trips.

I'd say even more fundamentally that both trucks have significantly different profiles - the Niko truck is predominantly convex, the Tesla is convex at the bottom progressing to concave at the top. The design approach is completely different. The airflow from each truck would show that clearly, I'm sure.

 

[avoigt]

I see your point, but I disagree that they have no choice. In fact, I think that pursuing this "minimal change" scenario is hurting them. The cost is not yet evident, but they will fall farther and farther behind EV manufacturers and the future *is* EV. Yes, there is significant potential for losses in trying to guesstimate the demands in a changing market -- but by not accepting the future they are going to still lose market share without ability to produce competitive products.

From a $TSLA future value perspective this is looking good for me. But, honestly, I'd rather they took the prodding and started doing real EVs. It will be far more disruptive to have the old automotive manufacturers receiving government handouts to keep their doors open and *still* end up closing them with subsequent damage to the economy.

In short, more pain up front but a better position to survive in the long run is, I think, their best option. Naturally, that won't sit well with shareholders focused on the next quarterly profit, nor with leadership that has fought the EV market from before it started.

I have relatives who work in Detroit -- I would like them to continue having a living.

I agree but there is even another argument that speaks in favor of building EV only lines.

If you do not build an EV from scratch but just put an electric motor in, like Daimler is doing it, you do not learn how to build a Tesla like EV at first and you have to learn how to ramp one or more full EV production lines later and once you have the demand you are waiting for.

This is a silly compromise Daimer as well as BMW are doing that will hit them in the back. Its a strategic mistake that I did expect them to make a few years ago but not now with all the knowledge that they should have absorbed from e.g. the 3 tear down.

The decision the Senior Management had to take was influenced by:

• How can I convince the board to move to EVs?
• What is required to keep the shareholders happy and the share up?
• How to manage the lack of knowledge in my plants about EVs?
• How to keep the Unions happy?
• How to keep our strategic advantage of suppliers who build highly sophisticated systems for our ICEs
• How to solve the Battery supply issue ?
• How can we determine how large the demand is out there for a BMW or Daimler EV without risking high CapEx
• How can I keep my P&L under control for the time I will be with the company?
• How can I keep my job?

Within this questions a obviously a few topics that just don't show up like: customer satisfaction, strategic investment, change management, know-how building, a.o.

Instead this guys are doing compromises and find a false con-sense that will likely not sell well.

 

[wipster]

I decided to buy some NIO @6.75 I think supporting other EV company's is in effect supporting Tesla's mission.

Looking at today's NIO SP, I wish I would have bought some as well!

 

[Tslynk67]

Look at those glassy eyes. Clearly stoned at work. Bankwupcy coming in mir daze.
/S

Those shades are CLEARLY hiding crack-cocaine eyes and Elon's hiding his arm so we can't see the puncture-wounds!

 

[Tslynk67]

Looking at today's NIO SP, I wish I would have bought some as well!

Hey, maybe we can short them! And talk all kinds of BS on Twitter.

 

[ZachF]

I believe "sharing the platform" is the only way for ICE manufacturers to proceed, which is a major disadvantage.

The fundamental problem ICE carmakers have is the unpredictability of demand and the unpredictability of the transition from ICE to BEV. The only way to handle that uncertainty is to make sure that the production lines are 'shared' and that these dual-design BEVs where the cells are where the engine is normally can be made as demand shifts. The fundamental paradox: to an ICE carmaker a new BEV sale is also lost ICE vehicle sale, on average.

If they kept separate ICE manufacturing lines, and EV demand rises "too fast" for them and they cannot sell their ICE models, they'd have to run their ICE factories much under capacity, or even be forced to write them off altogether. This would be catastrophic to profits.

The big problem: as Tesla has demonstrated it, a grounds-up BEV design like the Model 3 offers various fundamental advantages, while Mercedes EQC has utility trade-offs due to leaving space for an optional ICE engine: no frunk, reduced interior volume, no sedan version, etc.

Tesla and other pure BEV carmakers don't have these problems: they do not hurt from dropping ICE sales, increasing EV demand is a pure upside for them.

It remains to be seen whether Mercedes will be able to sell these Frankenstein cars that are burdened with ICE legacies, as "premium" vehicles.

This is true, and many ICE Auto OEMs have actually outsourced almost everything *except* engine production, hell even the body is usually outsourced... Which is why I think the "Large Auto OEMs can crush Tesla at will" argument is silly.

 

[beachbum77]

Anyone able compare the design/technology of this “tesla killer” EQC with model X? Their battery design is interesting, i wonder how good cooling would be. 110mph max speed is disapponting though.

You are in CA. Why do you need a speed above 110 for an SUV? Bragging rights?

 

[avoigt]

Isn't it nice and calm? Way better. They aren't fond of this new stock trend upwards. They'll be back when we top and start another dip.

True, its a pattern. Each time the SP goes down they jump out of their holes deep in the earth and disappear once the stock rises again.

 

[gora321]

No logo

Elon Musk's Boring Company Shares Video of Its Bricks Being Manufactured

Theoretical capacity: 8/min or 525.600/a
Theoretical revenue of one machine: $52.560

 

[beachbum77]

For example if $TSLA trades at $300 and a short buys one PUT contract at the money ($300 strike price) with next week expiry, then the market maker who writes the PUT option will almost immediately adjust their inventory and short about 100 shares of $TSLA.

There are not enough shares in the float to even cover a fraction of the put count. The only time they short or buy shares is when the call/put ratios get out of balance for a particular date.