TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

I believe "sharing the platform" is the only way for ICE manufacturers to proceed, which is a major disadvantage.

The fundamental problem ICE carmakers have is the unpredictability of demand and the unpredictability of the transition from ICE to BEV. The only way to handle that uncertainty is to make sure that the production lines are 'shared' and that these dual-design BEVs where the cells are where the engine is normally can be made as demand shifts. The fundamental paradox: to an ICE carmaker a new BEV sale is also lost ICE vehicle sale, on average.

If they kept separate ICE manufacturing lines, and EV demand rises "too fast" for them and they cannot sell their ICE models, they'd have to run their ICE factories much under capacity, or even be forced to write them off altogether. This would be catastrophic to profits.

The big problem: as Tesla has demonstrated it, a grounds-up BEV design like the Model 3 offers various fundamental advantages, while Mercedes EQC has utility trade-offs due to leaving space for an optional ICE engine: no frunk, reduced interior volume, no sedan version, etc.

Tesla and other pure BEV carmakers don't have these problems: they do not hurt from dropping ICE sales, increasing EV demand is a pure upside for them.

It remains to be seen whether Mercedes will be able to sell these Frankenstein cars that are burdened with ICE legacies, as "premium" vehicles.

I see your point, but I disagree that they have no choice. In fact, I think that pursuing this "minimal change" scenario is hurting them. The cost is not yet evident, but they will fall farther and farther behind EV manufacturers and the future *is* EV. Yes, there is significant potential for losses in trying to guesstimate the demands in a changing market -- but by not accepting the future they are going to still lose market share without ability to produce competitive products.

From a $TSLA future value perspective this is looking good for me. But, honestly, I'd rather they took the prodding and started doing real EVs. It will be far more disruptive to have the old automotive manufacturers receiving government handouts to keep their doors open and *still* end up closing them with subsequent damage to the economy.

In short, more pain up front but a better position to survive in the long run is, I think, their best option. Naturally, that won't sit well with shareholders focused on the next quarterly profit, nor with leadership that has fought the EV market from before it started.

I have relatives who work in Detroit -- I would like them to continue having a living.

 

[LoveTSLA]

The formulae are fine, though I'm not sure Wormwood nailed down the baseline timeline properly. 3x is a loose claim without properly stating the period being compared.

Still I think we can easily agree pack production will soon be around 8,000 / week in some mix of SR and LR versions.

Now, back to Market Action. Market opens in 10 min.

Cheers!

Yes. With all positive actions going on by Elon/Tesla, I am still projecting we close over 300 this week.
—-not an advice

 

[Unpilot]

I decided to buy some NIO @6.75 I think supporting other EV company's is in effect supporting Tesla's mission.

 

[Fact Checking]

I see your point, but I disagree that they have no choice. In fact, I think that pursuing this "minimal change" scenario is hurting them.

Note that even this so-called "minimal change" shared-platform approach has huge costs to ICE carmakers - here's what effects it had at Porsche and how long it's going to take:

Will Porsche Enter Production Hell For Taycan?​

"But, even pressed with such difficulties, the Porsche employees answered with zeal. Reimold reveals how the Porsche employees conveyed a clear-cut message and commitment to begin the production of the all-electric Porsche Taycan on time, and as early as possible. They’ve even opted to keep their salaries flat until 2026, in order to help finance the factory. This means that no regular salary increases will be seen by Porsche workers over the next few years, but they will get to see a return of their investments later on. Overall, this just goes to show you how much trust their employees have with the company."​

(BTW., I don't share the cheery characterization of the pay-cuts being voluntary: workers were probably told: "We can only build the Taycan in this factory if you accept these conditions. No jobs for you otherwise.")

ICE carmakers cannot stop making ICE cars and those cars must be as profitable as they expected them to be, because sales from their current ICE factories must fund the next ~5 years of operations, they were all built under such expectations of future sales.

(And yes, my current thesis is that the transition to EVs will be more abrupt than they are ready for, and that a couple of the large carmakers will go bankrupt in the next 5-10 years.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Has Mercedes got a plan for long distance charging in the U.S?

Of course they do. Other people are going to provide it. Like VW's Electrify America..

 

[EVMeister]

I decided to buy some NIO @6.75 I think supporting other EV company's is in effect supporting Tesla's mission.

I was going to do the same, but it seems my broker in the UK (HL) don't have that stock available. And I'd need it there as I have a tax free account with them and can't open another this year.

 

[keydiver]

Don't click on the click-bait:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...es--14710608&usg=AOvVaw0aoIc6hNx6wcgu-wvzGcv_

So, how did "Tesla slip" when the stock is up $4 already today?? I guess they're hoping if they say it loud enough and often enough it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. FUD sucks.

 

[gene]

I decided to buy some NIO @6.75 I think supporting other EV company's is in effect supporting Tesla's mission.

I did the same at $6.50 yesterday (low yesterday was like $5.??). I bought a measeley 100 shares. Damn!!! Should had bought WAY more, look at the stock today!

 

[Unpilot]

Wow

I did the same at $6.50 yesterday (low yesterday was like $5.??). I bought a measeley 100 shares. Damn!!! Should had bought WAY more, look at the stock today!

Yeah it is rocking up for sure..I just bought 75...but I am happy with that....don't know enough about them to go in much more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, how did "Tesla slip" when the stock is up $4 already today?

Tesla was down in pre-market trading, and opened $2.54 below yesterday's close. And the opening dip lasted somewhat less than the first 60 seconds of trading.

I feel the need, the need for SPEED!

 

[Unpilot]

The MMD seems to be loosing steam with each passing day.

 

[mltv]

I did the same at $6.50 yesterday (low yesterday was like $5.??). I bought a measeley 100 shares. Damn!!! Should had bought WAY more, look at the stock today!

The problem I have with NIO is: I don't see how 1B is enough for a car company to survive.

 

[Xpert]

Yes. With all positive actions going on by Elon/Tesla, I am still projecting we close over 300 this week.
—-not an advice

I hope so, seeing higher high and higher low in 5m chart lately

 

[RobStark]

The problem I have with NIO is: I don't see how 1B is enough for a car company to survive.

Tesla's IPO raised $226.1M in 2010.

 

[Krugerrand]

(Bolding by me)





His post was about news about new Exec departures being spun as negative. My point was that for those news to be spun as negative they´d have to be non-negative in the first place. I think it is not good so many execs are departing.

I think you worry about a non-issue. First of all, the execs have pretty much been replaced by all the promotions from within the company; by people who’ve proven their worth AND their commitment to the company Iike Jerome.

Secondly, people leave for all sorts of reasons. The most recent departure got CFO at a diff company. The one month finance hire guy also got a CFO job at new company after no longer having a job for him to do at Tesla since they didn’t go private. Zero chance either get that position at Tesla. Clearly neither was committed to Tesla beyond what Tesla could do for them in the moment. Don’t need those kind of people.

There were also a number of departures over the years that clearly needed to go as they didn’t do their jobs.

We need more Jeromes, who prove their worth, work tirelessly for the cause, take a leave now and again to recharge, refocus and come back energized and kill it.

So far Tesla’s restructuring looks solid to me.

To answer your question: Yes, it is a positive that the most recent finance guy left. He clearly wanted to be a CFO. Good luck to him.

 

[cheshire cat]

(BTW., I don't share the cheery characterization of the pay-cuts being voluntary: workers were probably told: "We can only build the Taycan in this factory if you accept these conditions. No jobs for you otherwise.")

I'm sure you're right, however it does illustrate my point from a few posts back, that all unions across Europe "shouldn't be tarred with the same brush". If that was Brum'. About 1970's (Birmingham West Midlands UK) they would be on strike ' till 2026. Sorry original quote from Factchecking

 

[Krugerrand]

The person that is able to sell dirt for 10 cent a brick should be awarded as the best sales man the world has ever seen!



Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
First Boring Brick store opening in ~2 months. Only 10 cents a brick! Rated for California seismic loads.

12:27 AM - 13 Sep 2018

P.S. I am already convinced that they will be sold out every day.

10c per seems way too cheap. Like these are going to be the Cadillac of dirt bricks, no? I hope they are embossing them with The Boring Company logo.

 

[positive_alpha]

If the worm capital article is somewhat real .. and tsla has == 100$/Wh cells (cost) in production by 12/2018..
tsla wins.
Tsla wins everything. Globally.

Because cell costs/density -- industrial reliability/longevity -- is everything.
Tsla might be at 24 GWh/yr on the 2170 cells for Model 3 alone, by 12/2018 - at 4-5-6k packs/week production at that time.
This is immaterial.
Tsla will have demand and ability to scale up over 100% y/y exponential, from 100$/cell costs, for near-forever.

 

[mltv]

Tesla's IPO raised $226.1M in 2010.

I probably post the same doubt back in 2010.

 

[Johan]

What happened to all the trolls? Was there some kind of blanket ban? Otherwise, how to interpret the dynamic of them being very active in the media and here on TMC while now relaxing? The stock price was driven down far enough so that big money could stock up again?