This is 2013.. but even if you zoom in it is hard to call a single day where the "squeeze" started.
On Tradingview.com you have a button "Go to..." on the right of the time range buttons.
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This is 2013.. but even if you zoom in it is hard to call a single day where the "squeeze" started.
On Tradingview.com you have a button "Go to..." on the right of the time range buttons.
Agreed, although I'd take either a significant new batch of VINs or a significant new non-owner invite wave (preferably both). We did not have a wave of invites last week, so if we also skip this week I will take that as a sign that things are not improving significantly.
You would be correct sir...my bad! Happens with advancing age. One forgets the exact details for a good story.
As my mother use to say 'Never let the facts get in the way of a good story'
I don’t think it is likely Tesla will be fairly valued (let alone overvalued) by the markets until about 2021/22, and that $1000 at 10,000 production could be overvalued.
fwiw, in a little shy of owning TSLA for 6 years, it’s only been overvalued in my view for about 48 hours of those 6 years (the first time it spiked to about $280-90). I think anyone expecting hitting and sustaining fair value any time soon is very likely to feel frustrated (though, a decent chance we spike there temporarily before 2021/22).
No, Tesla today is massively more undervalued.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Battery Storage.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Photovoltaics.
In 2013 there was no Tesla AI computing.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Network.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Semi.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Roadster #2.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Model Y.
and above list is not even near of being complete.
In 2013 market cap was 5 billion, now it's 58 billion. Just saying.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
This is how I lost position in NFLX, AMZN and FB, and after massive gains, missed on even more massive gains. When stock continues raising, time value on price of options deep in the money is almost nothing, so you either accept loss on the sale of the option, or you walk-away from the position...
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Allow me to assist.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Automation.
In 2013 there was no Tesla Pickup.
In 2013 there was no ubiquitous fast-charging network.
In 2013 Tesla had a long road ahead to direct-to-consumer sales.
In 2013 Tesla was not the top choice of college students.
In 2013 there were no plans for multiple Gigafactories.
In 2013 there were no “sustainable operating profits” soon.
In 2013 there were no upcoming synergies with SpaceX, Boring, and Neurolink.
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As to people trying to time TSLA...
Can anyone show me a single person here who called the timing/ magnitude of any of these moves,
$40s to $180s in 2013 (about 4-5 months)
$180s to $380s 2016-17 (about 6 months)
$380s to $280s 2017 (a few months)
These are among the very biggest, but, I could have listed many many more very outsized moves.
If you agree the market is offering you Tesla at very undervalued prices, hold it. Holding is an action by the way. You are doing something when Tesla jumps but because you still see it as very undervalued you hold your core shares and act not to be played by your adrenalin having you feel itchy.
If the market offers you Tesla in the future at silly cheap prices, pick up some trading shares if you can fund it, and unload them on a bounce. If this repeats many many times in the same range, there’s no rule against doing this many, many times (fwiw, doing this in steps, or tranches, if you have enough funds works great).
Thinking you can time when the market will offer silly cheap prices, and when the market will give Tesla an elevator ride up is a casino move. I’ve had more fun not worrying about trying to time when these events will happen and just making use of them as they do happen (with the approach I described above) than I’ve ever had in a casino.
Can anyone show me a single person here who called the timing/ magnitude of any of these moves,
$40s to $180s in 2013 (about 4-5 months)
$180s to $380s 2016-17 (about 6 months)
$380s to $280s 2017 (a few months)
These are among the very biggest, but, I could have listed many many more very outsized moves.
If you agree the market is offering you Tesla at very undervalued prices, hold it. Holding is an action by the way. You are doing something when Tesla jumps but because you still see it as very undervalued you hold your core shares and act not to be played by your adrenalin having you feel itchy.
If the market offers you Tesla in the future at silly cheap prices, pick up some trading shares if you can fund it, and unload them on a bounce. If this repeats many many times in the same range, there’s no rule against doing this many, many times (fwiw, doing this in steps, or tranches, if you have enough funds works great).
Thinking you can time when the market will offer silly cheap prices, and when the market will give Tesla an elevator ride up is a casino move. I’ve had more fun not worrying about trying to time when these events will happen and just making use of them as they do happen (with the approach I described above) than I’ve ever had in a casino.
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cant believe i made an account just for this post, but it just boggles my mind
how can you reasonably say that a company that grew its market value 10x ist still undervalued because those products?
battery storage does next to nothing for the bottom line
solarcity is being shut down more or less
name me an example where tesla AI is making the company more valuable
there is no tesla network, just a very vague idea for a very distant future
there is no tesla semi
there is no roadster 2
there is no model y
please tell me why you think tesla is still undervalued, and what value you would assign to these items
i dont want to be negative and you will probably just call me a short or a fudster, but i am honestly just trying to undestand your way of thinking...
cheers
Reciprocity
Active Member
The only thing that is really priced in is 500k model 3's per year. Nothing else the original poster included was priced in, IMO. The other thing that is somewhat priced in is the fact that Tesla has consistently grown at over 50% YoY. As long as that continues, and it appears there is no end in sight, as a matter of fact it could easily accelerate, then it is very much under valued. Just to reiterate what I mean, the growth rate since 2013 + 500K Model 3s. Everything else is upside including an acceleration of growth beyond 50%. Remember that valuation is not what you need last year but the expectations of with you will do in the future. If you dont continue to grow at the same rate, you will see a lower valuation. Evan at only 100,000 Model 3s, you are are at roughly 50% YoY Growth. 100K would be a massive disappointment.
I think Tesla is undervalued. But *more* undervalued than in 2013? I don't think so.
I'll be ecstatic if I triple my money in Tesla in the next three years.
Tesla is undervalued today, that we are in agreement. I’d also agree they have far more platforms now, several of which are ignored by many market participants.
However, Tesla is not nearly as undervalued as it was in Spring of 2013.
Tesla’s current pricing does somewhat, but not fully incorporate its future growth in vehicle sales (almost at BMW market cap with ~1/30th the current unit sales). In 2013, before the run, Tesla was priced to fail or just be a boutique (S/X) auto company... basically putting 0 value to the only reason to own Tesla, the “Gen 3” program (that’s the G3 in my handle and the reason I bought TSLA in 2012).
Tesla had in multiple ways told the world that it was though the Model S production/failure/bankruptcy a real risk (something Elon said in 2012 on camera was a real risk) and the stock had only moved to the $40s. It wasn’t until everything was official and Tesla announced Q1 2013 results that the market acted, and the stock price became 4X in 4 months. I didn’t sell a single core share at $180 because it was still undervalued. If we are at $1,400 in July, I will definitely sell some core shares, as the stock will not be undervalued in my view.
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Amazon in 2007 (in similar market conditions as we have today) was valued around $30 billion with a TTM revenue of $15 billion AND profitability AND many experiments that weren't quite understood by the general public yet.
Tesla has a TTM revenue of less than $15 billion, doesn't have profitability, but does have many experiments that aren't quite understood by the general public yet (all the things mentioned above that aren't yet significant financial contributors) and is valued at $60 billion.
Based on this information, I'm inclined to believe Tesla has some serious downside potential in the short term (Amazon's 2007 market cap was cut in half to $15 billion during the 2008 crisis). Someone tell me why I'm wrong...
Tesla has a TTM revenue of less than $15 billion, doesn't have profitability, but does have many experiments that aren't quite understood by the general public yet (all the things mentioned above that aren't yet significant financial contributors) and is valued at $60 billion.
Based on this information, I'm inclined to believe Tesla has some serious downside potential in the short term (Amazon's 2007 market cap was cut in half to $15 billion during the 2008 crisis). Someone tell me why I'm wrong...
Menifeer
Member
I understand your point, but I don't expect my TSLA $350s to be DITM on Friday. The stock might be above $354.50 (or might not).
The time premiums on TSLA are so steep that I expect to be able to roll to a much higher strike price a couple months out if my $350s are under water.
We can revisit this on Friday...
Words of HABIT
Active Member
At end of 2012 Tesla was cranking out one car type on weekly numbers you could count using body parts and it was make or break, if the MS failed, Tesla would have gone bankrupt. The MS originally thought to have a 20k/yr upper limit is now selling >50k/yr with no signs of slowing down. TSLA is ATH bound until confirmed 5k/wk M3, not tweets but confirmation. Only then expect it to break new highs in the 400s. Let's stop comparing 2018 to 2013. It's not going to happen. These are not the droids your looking for. Move along. Move along.
You are missing a key variable. At that time, the trailing five-year average annual revenue growth rate for Amazon was 28%. For Tesla, it is 123%.
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