-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
A hedge never hurts. I've placed several across the names im in. Right now vol is crazy so I'm taking advantage of the premiums.
Yes, probably both... if you look closely you'll see that around 13:00 EDT, as the price crossed 5% up, the volume increased.
The day it started, IIRC, was at the NAIAS when Jerome announced that 2012 Q4 was 'profitable' and that Tesla would continue to grow 'Recklessly' (there was a language issue and he meant to say 'Relentlessly). It corresponded to a triple witch option expiry and the stock jumped and continued to go up. This was confirmed on the Q1 ER so early 2013 saw incredible short squeezing.
To get a true short squeeze you need not only a high short interest (like we have) but a company changing financial event that is unexpected. While evidence of hitting some model 3 guidance production will produce a nice bump in the SP and some squeezing of shorts I doubt we will see 2013 price appreciation, by percentage, again.
Menifeer
Member
Sold the Mar 16 $350 Call @ $4.50 (just before it rose to $5.00...).
edit: Sold to open covered Calls
edit: Sold to open covered Calls
Last edited:
Bought 100 shares earlier this morning @ 334.68. Did not expect it to be in the money for the day DAMN!
Menifeer
Member
Not really.
If the price continues up, I'll repurchase and sell the Mar 23 for an even greater premium. I'll keep doing that in subsequent weeks until the price stops rising and the option expires worthless.
K_Dizzle
Member
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Pretty sound strategy based on recent trend, PPS seem to oscillate between $330 and $360. I would set the sell price a little below $360. We got close a few times but have not actually touched $360. But with TSLA and M3 ramp at its current stage, any week could bring new news, so it's only a matter of time before the $330-$360 pattern gets broken.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
What if it never gets back to $330's?
I think the curse of $360 will be broken next time. I think twelfth time is the charm.
My SP prediction remains $500 by 5,000 sustainable weekly Model 3 production rate and $1,000 by 10,000 (instead of a time-based prediction).
Last edited:
Menifeer
Member
I have a long position (2020 LEAPS) that benefits from the surge in share price.
The options I sold vs those LEAPS are a hedge against the stock stalling at its current level or falling back. As I mentioned in the prior post, if the stock continues to rise, I also have a profitable exit strategy.
That was a great day, but that was in 2014 and the stock had already tripled by the point, so I wouldn’t consider that the start.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I'm gonna go with baker's dozen. I'm hoping this will run up for a few more days into the $350s, at which point I plan to get out of some J19Cs, wait a few days for it to drift down a bit, and get back into J20Cs.
I think it'll break when it has a reason to break. If it runs up on hype again, it'll sink. Confirmation of the do-hickey from Germany installed and working properly would probably be enough to break it, and that's supposedly sometime this month.
I think we are all "hoping" it'll happen this month. But historically, we are always given the most rosy of pictures. We are hoping it arrives this month, then we are hoping it will be installed in short order, then we are hoping it will ramp quickly. It feels like a lot of hope for such a short period of time. This spike has been a blessing, I'd prepare accounts for that blessing to fade if we dont start seeing a bit of steak.
It's possible. Although I'd prefer to gamble on the side of taking profits now vs allowing profits to disappear again. And I still see no concrete sign that the 2500 mark will be hit, or even approached, so I'm betting on a reset after Q1 delivery numbers come out.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I'm looking for a new batch of VIN registrations by the end of the week. If we get that, then I think the ramp is ramping in a rampid fashion.
bdy0627
Active Member
It seems unlikely to me that the pattern of climbing somewhere between 7 - 27% with an average around 16%, and then dropping between 7 - 21%, with an average around 12%, is unlikely to suddenly end soon. Eventually, we will have a climb that will eclipse 27% by quite a lot, but probably not this month. I'm kinda hoping for a few more months of this pattern since I finally think I've got the hang of this.
I agree if your point is that the Model 3 getting out of the woods would be the biggest positive for Tesla since the Model S got out of the woods. Tesla is not nearly as undervalued as it was in 2013, so, price being multiplied by 4 in several months is all but certain not something we will see. Up 30-50% in a year or less we may see.
As to “squeeze”, I’ve been following Tesla closely since Spring of 2012- Tesla has never had a short squeeze and I doubt it ever will. They are extraordinarily rare.
Runarbt
Active Member
and that is when it normally change.. in my experience.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
