I'll make a twitter account just for this purpose. I've held out this long on joining the platform. I'll get on it after work
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
That's the question isn't it? No one has fallen out of warranty yet on the motors or battery packs. Once that happens we will know for sure if 8 yr old cars will be sought after or become expensive backyard planters. It will all depend on replacement prices.
A similar problem exists for the 2003 and newer MB SL-Class cars with their Active Body Control systems. These link the power steering into a very expensive 3,000 psi hydraulic system for the suspension. Total cost to replace is about $10,000 with labor. The main pump alone is $2,200. It has severely depressed used car values. Several vendors have developed non-hydraulic replacements but those are about $5,000 with labor. You will see cars with failed systems pop up on used car ads and Ebay with HUGE discounts from owners who cannot afford to fix their cars. Whether Tesla owners will fall into the same trap remains to be seen in the early 2020's.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It makes sense for several reasons:
- Imported luxury cars are very popular in China, and they cost twice as much. Tesla is not an outlier, and since everyone pays the same tariffs no one has an advantage. The addressable market gets reduced, but demand for luxury EVs is still huge - and the remaining demand gets covered by ICE manufacturers. A Tesla Model 3 not sold today in China can easily be a lost sale to a BMW 3-series.
- Tesla would want to "develop" their Model 3 market: 2020 and the first Model 3's from Shanghai are only 1.5-2 years away. They want more market penetration, brand recognition, local reviews, Model 3 Performance units out on the roads, etc.
- Consumers like options. They might be drawn in by a showroom Model 3, and might end up buying a Model S or X.
- There are always risks when introducing a new model: some regulatory, compliance or logistics hickup could slow down deliveries in a region unexpectedly. So having redundancy reduces those risks
- The European version is affected by a 10% tariff - which Tesla's main ICE competitors (German luxury car makers) are not affected by. Tesla could avoid the 10% tariff only by doing final assembly in Europe, but their assembly factory in the Netherlands possibly doesn't have the capacity for that. Tesla also has non-trivial transportation costs to Europe.
- In China all main competitors are paying the same tariffs, and transportation distances are similar, so Tesla is on a more level playing field.
The best strategy for Tesla would be to introduce high trim versions on both the European and the Chinese markets, in parallel.
Why? It loses money on every car it sells. They're selling a dollar for 80 cents.
All this madness will just accelerate bankwuptcy. Any day now. The shorts must be ecstatic.
"severe" "expensive" "HUGE" "trap"
Ah Beachbum, stop being such a fuddy duddy. This post is totally irrelevant and 100% hypothetical and adds NOTHING material to discussion of Tesla
Last edited:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That's the price at which the MOST people get burned on their calls and puts. This is the safe zone for Market Makers
Are you saying the Chinese will buy an ICE BMW if a Model 3 is not available instead of a new or used Model S?
I think it's the point where puts at prices expiring worthless and calls expiring worthless is greatest. So they get burned because their money paid for the options was just thrown away.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Ha! Highly doubt my bot followers care!
A problems is, I've started following many here and with everyone retweeting the same posts, timelines just get blown out. It's actually funny watching the activity pane in Tweetdeck scroll non stop at times. Shame they can't be forced on the tslaq gang!
Starting to think I should create a Tesla only Twitter act.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Tesla's margin is probably already higher on a fully optioned $80k Model 3 Performance, than on a minimum spec $80k Model S.
So it makes business sense to convert Model S sales to Model 3 P sales, as long as their overall new orders demand is strong - which it is.
There's literally no downside to selling high trim versions of the Model 3 in China and in Europe, using their established sales network. In fact it would reduce the per unit SG&A overhead, as most of the infrastructure can be shared.
Damn that video brought a tear to my eye!Ha, Elon just re-tweeted
Menifeer
Member
NO.
The Put writers (sellers) aren't in charge. The Put buyers are the ones who have the choice to exercise, sell or do nothing with the option.
The writer can, of course, nullify the Put by repurchasing it (i.e., buy-to-close).
Are you disagreeing with me? I don't get it. Of course I was talking about those who bought the puts
You guys are saying the same thing. The put option someone buys is an option to *sell* shares at a given price, regardless of the current market price.
Menifeer
Member
You didn't make it clear that you were referring to the buyers instead of the writers...
ABCTG said: ↑
So, with 10,391 $300 puts at close, does that mean the put writers will each get assigned 100 shares of TSLA?
You replied:
No. They would have the OPTION to sell shares at that strike price
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
