TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ggr]

Possibly; it's too close to $300 for all of them to do so, though.

Some of the put holders will exercise their options to sell and then buy shares to cover in the aftermarket, gaining about 90 cents per share (less commissions). (I might expect high aftermarket volume.) Those put holders who don't trade in aftermarket may be afraid of an opening above $300 on Monday and may choose not to exercise.

My broker (ETrade) will automatically exercise in-the-money options unless they are notified in advance of the close not to. It would be a bit of a pain if someone had held share for a long time and exercised the put, since that would start the long-term clock again.

 

[neroden]

My broker (ETrade) will automatically exercise in-the-money options unless they are notified in advance of the close not to. It would be a bit of a pain if someone had held share for a long time and exercised the put, since that would start the long-term clock again.

Better brokers will take notification of intent to exercise by exception, or not exercise by exception, *after market close* on Friday, though every one sets their deadline before noon Saturday which is when the options *actually* expire.

 

[ggies07]

"Hello, boys. I'm Ba-ack!" (Randy Quaid voice from Independence Day)

Electrek | Tesla brings back free Supercharging to inventory cars and Model 3 to help sell cars in end of quarter rush

"The automaker is also now including regular Model 3 vehicles as part of its employee incentive program for the last week of the quarter. Until now, only Model S, Model X, and Model 3 Performance vehicles were included, as we previously reported."

And TSLA promptly dropped a buck-fiddy in After-hours trading. Demand levers = Lack of Demand

CHEERS!

Wow. So they scrap the SR version to make higher margin cars right now, but do so in batches instead one to one ratio. If they can't sell these properly with demand ratio of one to one, then they should uphold the damn reservation list. What happened to this company? So focused on cash flow positive that they are ****ing this up? They are sacrificing growth for short term cash just to stick it to the market....when it shows they are still tied to it.

Elon should have taken Tesla private, used the extra cash for extreme growth to get the EVs out ASAP.

 

[BenPrice]

So - let’s trust bloomberg and insideEVs at the same time.

InsideEVs claims ~16500 3s sold in US during Q2.

Tesla’s Q2 report states ~22000 3s sold in Q2.

That leaves ~5500 for Q2 Canada, which seems plausible to me.

Bloomberg believes ~90,500 3s have been manufactured.

Inside EVs believes 58,000 3s have been delivered total to US.

InsideEVs believes ~32,000 have been delivered in first 2 months of this quarter.

To target Q3 total deliveries, 26000 can be removed from Bloomberg’s total , 58000 US total less 32000 Q3. Also, Canada’s 5500 is removed from Bloomberg’s estimate.

Let’s put all this together:

90,500 total available (Bloomberg) less 26000 (EVSales US all quarters before Q3) less 5500 Canada (Inferred from Tesla Q2 and InsideEVs):

59,000 3s remaining.

Less 32000 already delivered leaves 27000 available for September.


Assuming 20% unsold is 48,000 remaining, and 22000 sold in September, which results in 54000 3 delivered in Q3.

Meets guidance seems reasonable. Exceeds guidance seems unlikely, but absolutely possible.

I’m guessing 56000 model 3 deliveries in Q3, combined with 26000 S/X = 82,000 deliveries total = Elon’s double delivery claim.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So they scrap the SR version

Uh, no. 2019 Q1 just like they've been saying for 6 months.

 

[ggies07]

Uh, no. 2019 Q1 just like they've been saying for 6 months.

Um, yes. Supposedly they pushed off starting the SR this month for the higher margin cars, but they make them just to make them without customer matches and then have to dangle incentives to sell them.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Um, yes. Supposedly they pushed off starting the SR this month for the higher margin cars, but they make them just to make them without customer matches and then have to dangle incentives to sell them.

Show me any time Tesla has ever said the SR is pushed off. I've read the statements from commenters. That's not a Tesla source. Telsa is NOT going to offer a 17% discount with the SR vs the LR when gross margins are still 15% or less. Just be patient. 2019 Q1 as Tesla said.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is completely focused on pushing out cars to anyone they can immediately at the end of the quarter now and ignoring those with reservations. It is in their best interest to do so for quarterly numbers.

Several people posted Tesla was calling People who had reservations and orders. Warm calling for immediate sales.

I am sure someone with a reservation would have priority with a non-reservation holder that wanted the same car that lived in the same area.

Most of the available cars are probably in California so Californians with no reservations might be getting a car over,say, a reservation holder in Michigan. Or Norway.

 

[ggies07]

Show me any time Tesla has ever said the SR is pushed off. I've read the statements from commenters. That's not a Tesla source. Telsa is NOT going to offer a 17% discount with the SR vs the LR will gross margins are still 15% or less. Just be patient. 2019 Q1 as Tesla said.

It's really about how they have handled this. Reservation numbers, then presentations with Elon saying they are very important, then screwing up and constantly pushing back the M3 production start dates, then opening up to anyone who will pay for the high end models just to play games with the market to be cash flow positive over growth. It's amazing, they are making it, but not in a pretty way.....

 

[Remus]

It's really about how they have handled this. Reservation numbers, then presentations with Elon saying they are very important, then screwing up and constantly pushing back the M3 production start dates, then opening up to anyone who will pay for the high end models just to play games with the market to be cash flow positive over growth. It's amazing, they are making it, but not in a pretty way.....

Higher trim got higher priority, that is pretty much what they said two years ago. I don't understand why are you surprised.

 

[mickificki]

Elon’s asking for help...

 

[ggies07]

Higher trim got higher priority, that is pretty much what they said two years ago. I don't understand why are you surprised.

Buy making batches and then having to use incentives to sell them? I would like to get my car I've waited for over 2 years, I have the cash, but they would rather just make random cars that dont match customers....they have over 400,000 reservations.....start going down the list!

I'm just ****ing disgruntled, that's all...

 

[jhm]

Kimbal Musk: Elon working hard for Tesla shareholders, focus is on delivering the Model 3

This is such a funny interview. I had to watch it a second time. It becomes clear just how ridiculous how irrelevant the journalist's questions are. They are clearly much more interested in talking about tweets and feelings than Tesla and business results. What a joke this whole business media has become. TMZ looks like serious journalism compared to this circus.

 

[EVNow]

It really isn't that hard to avoid the gross errors made by "journalists". Maybe I'm showing too many grey hairs. Maybe I've got rose-tinted glasses for the "good old days." But I remember a time when there were standards in writing.

This.

This time you speak of - was that when NYT profiled the great warrior, Osama Bin Laden ? Or was this when they had a soft focus puff piece on Hitler ? Or may be when they pushed a story by Chalabi about WMD - which legitimized Iraq war that has killed a million people.

Show me an era when your "standards in writing" were great. I'll show you examples of colossal mistakes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reading the comment section over at Electrek, I can see that this SC promo is destined to become the new 'Tent-Gate' (burn the which). And the shorties might enjoi this:

 

[scaesare]

Wow. So they scrap the SR version to make higher margin cars right now, but do so in batches instead one to one ratio. If they can't sell these properly with demand ratio of one to one, then they should uphold the damn reservation list. What happened to this company? So focused on cash flow positive that they are ****ing this up? They are sacrificing growth for short term cash just to stick it to the market....when it shows they are still tied to it.

Elon should have taken Tesla private, used the extra cash for extreme growth to get the EVs out ASAP.

You really are hilarious.

 

[SO16]

Buy making batches and then having to use incentives to sell them? I would like to get my car I've waited for over 2 years, I have the cash, but they would rather just make random cars that dont match customers....they have over 400,000 reservations.....start going down the list!

I'm just ****ing disgruntled, that's all...

What version are you waiting for and in what country?

 

[Off Shore]

You really are hilarious.

@ggies07 isn't being funny, he's in pain. He wants the $35K car he's been waiting for and I can't blame him. Even less so since I just drove 35 miles for fries and a shake so I could steal my sweetie's 3 while she wasn't looking. When you see his posts on this topic please just send him love.

 

[SO16]

@ggies07 isn't being funny, he's in pain. He wants the $35K car he's been waiting for and I can't blame him. Even less so since I just drove 35 miles for fries and a shake so I could steal my sweetie's 3 while she wasn't looking. When you see his posts on this topic please just send him love.

It has been explained several times on why Tesla couldn’t start out making the 35k version. The day is getting very close. He needs to be just a bit more patient or cancel the order and get something else. People waited longer for their Model X.

 

[hacer]

No. They would have the OPTION to sell shares at that strike price

Put writers (aka sellers) have an obligation to buy, the buyers have an option to sell.
The answer to the original question is that yes, those put writers will be buying the vast majority of that stock tomorrow (yes, Saturday when the options actually get auto exercised unless the put buyer gave explicit instructions to not exercise).