TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ValueAnalyst]

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

Today is Quadruple Witching, which means the following phrase is true to the fourth power:

Careful with trades.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still waiting for my tax return. Sure, I could lend myself some money, but being sensible and prudent, I wait.

Besides, I'm expecting crappy Q1 M3 figures and looking for a bigger dip than we have right now.

If I'm wrong, fine, the core shares I already hold go up

 

[Curt Renz]

Looks like Max Pain is $330 on a Quadwitch day.

Today is Quadruple Witching, which means the following phrase is true to the fourth power:
...
Careful with trades.

When I was working in TV financial news and daily interviewed market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, a quarterly options expiration day was known as Triple Witching Day. That referred to the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options and individual stock options. Of course that could be subdivided more finely, but learned people knew that in mythology and literature including Shakespeare, witches typically came in threes. Then one of the exchanges came up with a new product it wanted to promote and urged folks to start calling the quarterly expiration Quadruple Witching Day. Many of us find that to be nonsense and continue calling it Triple Witching Day. Let's hope that remains the general practice on this message board.

In any event, the implication by those quoted above to be especially careful about day trading on such a day is sound advice.
Beware the three witches.

 

[Tenable]

20 on site, 20 a day now and 300 by month end would mean more than 30 a business day (3+ full trucks) thru month end.

Again he said they were averaging 20 a day, also I don't think he was giving me a channel check intending for me to trade around it. He volunteered the info when I made a half humorous comment that my day was going well minus the share price. He stated "I don't know why its been going down, we are on track and delivering 20 cars a day on average with trucks coming every day," Take it as you will.

 

[Richgoogol]

Going to retest the 321 resistance level again?

 

[bdy0627]

Yep. I'm going to wait this out until there's a sign of bottom and then buy.

 

[bdy0627]

Sometimes the bottom can drop surprisingly far before it ricochets back up. Best not to add until it starts back up.

 

[aznt1217]

Just remember guys... fundamentals haven't changed.

 

[Curt Renz]

Going to retest the 321 resistance level again?

Resistance Level: A price at which a supply of shares is readily available for sale, thus preventing the price from rising above.
Support Level: A price which is attractive to those hoping to purchase shares, thus preventing the price from falling below.

 

[Iceman]

I just pulled on 200 shares at 320.30

 

[bdy0627]

It broke the support level at $321, which ironically is probably what the stock needed for a rebound. If you look at the daily trading pattern, the stock usually reverses on a lower low day, sometimes by quite a lot.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I just pulled on 200 shares at 320.30

I got in a few cents higher than you.

 

[sundaymorning]

With about 2 weeks left to go and no new info on M3 or evidence of a vertical ramp happening I think we are headed downward from here. I am anticipating a recovery next Q.

Edit: although the AP upgrade was wonderful news, M3 ramp is dominating the conversation right now.

 

[bdy0627]

Bought a bunch of J19s, JUN, and APR calls.

 

[Iceman]

I got in a few cents higher than you.

We were both early.

 

[bdy0627]

With a low so far today of $319, the stock has dropped 8.1% from the high of $347 on 3/12. This is day 4 of the latest dip.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

We were both early.

A dollar here, a dollar there...

 

[sundaymorning]

With a low so far today of $319, the stock has dropped 8.1% from the high of $347 on 3/12. This is day 4 of the latest dip.

I think the street is figuring out that Tesla won’t meet production numbers for M3 this Q, this can be a replay of last Q when we dipped below $300 and recovered with the 8k. If Tesla misses again, and I am incline to think they will, We might see a brief period of $290-300 again, maybe lower if additional bottlenecks occur. Adam Jonas estimate of 120k M3 for full year 2018 is looking optimistic at this point. Very disappointing.

 

[Reciprocity]

I think the street is figuring out that Tesla won’t meet production numbers for M3 this Q, this can be a replay of last Q when we dipped below $300 and recovered with the 8k. If Tesla misses again, and I am incline to think they will, We might see a brief period of $290-300 again, maybe lower if additional bottlenecks occur. Adam Jonas estimate of 120k M3 for full year 2018 is looking optimistic at this point. Very disappointing.

Sad but probably true and really justified at this point. There seems to have been almost no improvement in production this year.

 

[bdy0627]

I think the street is figuring out that Tesla won’t meet production numbers for M3 this Q, this can be a replay of last Q when we dipped below $300 and recovered with the 8k. If Tesla misses again, and I am incline to think they will, We might see a brief period of $290-300 again, maybe lower if additional bottlenecks occur. Adam Jonas estimate of 120k M3 for full year 2018 is looking optimistic at this point. Very disappointing.

Yeah, I think a miss on Q1 guidance is quite likely at this point, though I also think the SP is reflecting lower production expectations already. Hard to know how much. I think there will be another rise before the end of the quarter though. I do not think this dip will continue for another 10 trading days.