bdy0627
Active Member
All eyes will be on the Grohmann line getting up and running hopefully soon. Clearly that's what Tesla needs to ramp production, and Elon pretty much spilled the beans about it in the last CC.
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If Tesla hits 5k/wk at any point during Q2, they did not need to produce any cars in the first half of the year to reach 125k 3s. 25 weeks (week off for the Holidays) * 5k/wk = 125,000.
If they make 8k in Q1, hit 2k at start of Q2 and stay there (26k), then hit 4 k at start of Q3 and stay there (100k), they produce 134k.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Historically from MS, MX and now M3 ramp, Tesla has proven the ramp occurs very conservatively, perhaps too much “hubris” in their estimates (they are guiding for everything to go 90% right, I now realize that this is not possible). At any rate, I have to extrapolate from what Tesla has historically done in the previous 2 quarters. Even if they get the ramp up to 2,000 per week exiting this Q, we can assume (based on exiting last q) that those are burst rates and do not reflect true consistency. Hence, if we get to 5k a week end of next Q, it will be burst rates. The 5k a week estimate will likely fall behind schedule and achieve in Q3.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Bears are going to spin this out of control:
Tesla Semi prototype spotted apparently broken down makes naysayers rejoice, but there’s a twist
Tesla Semi prototype spotted apparently broken down makes naysayers rejoice, but there’s a twist
I'll admit to being more optimistic. I'm thinking the limit is in the pack supply, thus making it an issue of not enough parts rather than many things needing resolved and thus is a different issue that the S or X ramps.
Tesla has basically had 9 months to work the kinks out of the line. In the first 9 months, S went from 0 to 5k/ quarter and over the following 1.5 years only increased another 50%. For the X, after a low first quarter, in 9 months it was at 8,750 cars/ quarter (75% of current volume).
If they can build 2k/ wk, burst would actually be a good thing in that it shows the line is operating way below capacity. Again, if they can do 5k a week end of Q2, then as long as the parts supply keeps up, they will be above 120k for the year.
Absolute worst case, if Fremont can do it, they spend Q2 doubling the semi-automatic pack lines, and hit 5k in Q3 without the German line.
K_Dizzle
Member
If you don’t break it you’re not testing it hard enough
sundaymorning
Active Member
Bloomberg estimates 737 M3 per week, Mercury News published an article about Wells Fargo estimating 600 or 700 M3 per week.
Tesla: Model 3 Scrutiny Intensifies as ‘Stalkers’ Circle
Yes, IB lent out the last stocks the last minutes, so not much more the shorts can do now.
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Of course they will.
Even more important that you add to your post that Tesla clarified 'nothing broke down'. They just stopped for testing and put a triangle out for security reasons and people came to wrong conclusions.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Maybe some of those tours of the Gigafactory occurred that Elon spoke about on the CC. Can and would any of those analysts taking those tours add any color to their investor updates. Why have we not seen anything from this? I would assume it would have to be public or certain analysis would have what equates to inside info that others do not?
jhm
Well-Known Member
OMG, TESLA SEMI FIRE
Just kidding. Let's see the bots parse that.
Just kidding. Let's see the bots parse that.
K_Dizzle
Member
Assuming the manual line can do 2500 packs / week as indicated and the grohmann line adds another 2500/ week why can’t tesla just run both simultaneously untill the grohmann line is duplicated twice more?
bdy0627
Active Member
With where the ramp is currently. I think it is extremely unlikely Tesla exits Q1 with a steady production rate of 2,000. Probably more like 1,200 or possibly 1,500. Because the market knows how poorly the ramp is going to this point, I think a rapid increase, even to 2,000 per week over the next 4 weeks would be big.
bdy0627
Active Member
I agree with Tesla achieving steady production of 5,000/week some time in Q3.
bdy0627
Active Member
Which has zero bearing on the vehicle line limits.
Part shortages make any factory slow to a crawl, the question (to me) is: if Fremont had parts, how fast can it run? Since there were always shortages, the only data available would be short runs that go as fast as feasible until parts run out.
Hypothetically:
I ship you enough tires for 700 cars per week for a quarter and, at the end of the quarter, your plant is running 2 hours a day or 1 day a week or at 25% speed all the time. I then start shipping you 2,800 cars worth of tires per week sustained. What does the factory output look like in Q2?
We can move this to a new thread and/or wait and see what happens.
sundaymorning
Active Member
1,200-1,500 steady state exiting the Q is also my estimate, it is also what I’m fearing.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Yeah, but at almost a year into production, parts supply should be figured out. Its not like the parts used, outside of those made by Tesla, are something completely unique and Tier 1 providers should not have a problem delivering. I could see early issues with Parts, but still? One legit issue could be the parts conveyance system. Its not like Tesla had this system before and they just expanded it. They called it out as a bottle neck on the call and maybe they are having a lot of problems figuring it out in relationship to how fast the parts need to be delivered for the line to run at full speed.
Right, so the only known issue is....
To mis-quote Bo Schembechler
The Pack
The Pack
The Pack
Until those come in at rate, Fremont is under utilized. Once they do, Fremont should have a whole lot of the rest of the parts on hand, so the material movement may well be the next restriction.
Back on thread, a true Bo quote that I hope applies:
In time of difficulty those brave enough to stay the course will be victors in the end.
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