TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Right, so the only known issue is....
To mis-quote Bo Schembechler
The Pack
The Pack
The Pack

Until those come in at rate, Fremont is under utilized. Once they do, Fremont should have a whole lot of the rest of the parts on hand, so the material movement may well be the next restriction.

Back on thread, a true Bo quote that I hope applies:
In time of difficulty those brave enough to stay the course will be victors in the end.

Yeah, accept that 8K said they did not need the new machines from Germany to hit 2500. As a matter of fact, they offered to show analysts the semi-automatic lines that where capable of 2500/w. What ever happened with that. Shouldnt that be public information?

 

[bdy0627]

Yeah, accept that 8K said they did not need the new machines from Germany to hit 2500. As a matter of fact, they offered to show analysts the semi-automatic lines that where capable of 2500/w. What ever happened with that. Shouldnt that be public information?

That 8K still seems a little sketchy, particularly in hindsight with minimal progress in the ramp since then.

 

[elasalle]

Previous Communication -- In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week

For what ever it's worth, I think goal is to still say --- "and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 2500 Model 3's per week"

 

[mongo]

That 8K still seems a little sketchy, particularly in hindsight with minimal progress in the ramp since then.

If I tell you on Monday that the plane will land by 3:05 on Saturday, and it is only Wednesday, and half the passengers aren't here, did I mislead you?
Equipment goes from not installed to installed. From not producing to producing. The more times they set up the same piece of equipment, the less ramp up each one takes. For all we know, they will be commissioned next week, and GF1 will be above 2,500/wk on the 21st.

For what ever it's worth, I think goal is to still say --- "and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 2500 Model 3's per week"

Given the push back that statement got last time, I think is more likely that, worst case, they cut back next week's production so they can say: "Last week we made 2,500+ packs and 2,500+ 3s"

 

[bdy0627]

If I tell you on Monday that the plane will land by 3:05 on Saturday, and it is only Wednesday, and half the passengers aren't here, did I mislead you?
Equipment goes from not installed to installed. From not producing to producing. The more times they set up the same piece of equipment, the less ramp up each one takes. For all we know, they will be commissioned next week, and GF1 will be above 2,500/wk on the 21st.



Given the push back that statement got last time, I think is more likely that, worst case, they cut back next week's production so they can say: "Last week we made 2,500+ packs and 2,500+ 3s"

It looks to me like what Elon actually said during the CC, rather than what was released the next day to correct what he said, will turn out to be more accurate. The Grohmann line will almost certainly be in place by the time they hit production of 2,500 per week. What was said in the 8K was something along the lines that there was the potential to increase production of packs up to 2,500 per week even without the Grohmann line. We have not come anywhere close to seeing that potential realized thus far but they do have a couple of weeks left to achieve that. It appears far more likely that the Grohmann line is what will push production up to and over 2,500/week.

 

[bdy0627]

I didn't expect an effective short attack so late like this, especially with max pain at $330. They are hitting hard and TSLA is obviously vulnerable with the light volume.

 

[sundaymorning]

Not good if we close under $320

 

[K_Dizzle]

Not good if we close under $320

I didn't expect an effective short attack so late like this, especially with max pain at $330. They are hitting hard and TSLA is obviously vulnerable with the light volume.

Shorts will need to cover eventually, this is their funeral. There is some unwarranted concensus on Reddit that Tesla will simple go bankrupt any day now. The shorts are feeding this narrative and people are eating it up.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Bears are going to spin this out of control:

Tesla Semi prototype spotted apparently broken down makes naysayers rejoice, but there’s a twist

You can't blame it on the bears if Electrek publishes a click-bait headline like this.

 

[BornToFly]

Frustrating. I really thought after the 5% drop earlier in the week based on the FUD article, that we would recover by today when everyone realized that the "reporting" was all garbage. Going down more was unexpected. Nothing but negative articles everywhere. Hopefully we have some good news and a reversal next week so I avoid a margin call on my naked Puts.

 

[jhm]

You can't blame it on the bears if Electrek publishes a click-bait headline like this.

Electrek is just beating the bears at their own game. They can go ahead and propagate this article, but it will just set the record straight.

 

[Menifeer]

Frustrating. I really thought after the 5% drop earlier in the week based on the FUD article, that we would recover by today when everyone realized that the "reporting" was all garbage. Going down more was unexpected. Nothing but negative articles everywhere. Hopefully we have some good news and a reversal next week so I avoid a margin call on my naked Puts.

Have you considered rolling the Puts to a later date?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Glad we are finally back to discussing what matters. Focus on M3 production. FOCUS People!

 

[bdy0627]

Frustrating. I really thought after the 5% drop earlier in the week based on the FUD article, that we would recover by today when everyone realized that the "reporting" was all garbage. Going down more was unexpected. Nothing but negative articles everywhere. Hopefully we have some good news and a reversal next week so I avoid a margin call on my naked Puts.

Out of the last 7 trading days, we have seen 1 green candle. But, oh what a candle that was. TSLA really didn't deserve to jump that much that quickly, so some correction was expected. We have now had 4 straight red candles now since that big up day, bringing us down way more than we went up that day. I think this will reverse soon, but it also depends upon ramp news. Can it really stay this bad for that much longer???

 

[larmor]

If your investment strategy is to lose money do not buy in at 324, said many in the investors like to lose money club and afraid of new fangle thingamobs like aapl, amzn, nflx...

 

[sundaymorning]

Frustrating. I really thought after the 5% drop earlier in the week based on the FUD article, that we would recover by today when everyone realized that the "reporting" was all garbage. Going down more was unexpected. Nothing but negative articles everywhere. Hopefully we have some good news and a reversal next week so I avoid a margin call on my naked Puts.

I don’t think any “news” other than a 2,500 M3 ramp will reverse market sentiment. It’s currently down bc investors are anticipating a big miss. I remember going back and forth with a member named Maoing during the MX misses, those months that seemed to stretch forever were morbid to say the least. I tried my best to defend Tesla during those days, but not this time, this is inexcusable-especially with the 8k. Fool me once, but fool me twice? Not going to happen.

Be prepared for an all out assault by bears when numbers are released. I’m hoping for better days next quarter, as far as this quarter goes, I’m giving up fighting for Tesla.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Shorts will need to cover eventually, this is their funeral. There is some unwarranted concensus on Reddit that Tesla will simple go bankrupt any day now. The shorts are feeding this narrative and people are eating it up.

I understand why the consensus on Reddit exists, and also why there is so much confusion and anger from many who hold that consensus opinion.

The reasoning is that starting a new car company is so difficult and complicated that Tesla is likely to fail because there are too many things that can go wrong. The problem is that many of these consensus holders mistake their belief in likelihood of failure for certainty of failure, which is a mistake that some of the bears here at TMC also make. Most humans don't deal well at all with certainty, and when that certainty is challenged, they usually react with anger. Mostly I see this in the context of hot button political issues (guns, health care, abortion, etc). Tesla, being a "hot button" topic because it challenges the status quo, evokes similar response. A lot of people out there are wringing their hands and spitting in rage simply because Tesla continues to exist, despite the odds. I've noticed that none of these people spend any time clutching their pearls in fear of Fisker, Karma, or Faraday Future, because the various failures at these companies validate their certainty.

The consensus isn't in of itself illogical IMO, but the "certainty" that many people attach to this consensus may be their undoing.

They would do well to remember that at the 1980 Olympics, The US men's hockey team wasn't supposed to win their game against the USSR either:

"If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine, but not this game..."

 

[Sudre]

I find it interesting that the Tesla dealers seem to think they are hitting their targets but the investors think Tesla will miss the projections. That means either the dealers have targets that are less in total than the number we were given or Tesla is ramping more than the data we are seeing.

I see a very long drum roll for the next 15 days :-O

 

[30seconds]

I find it interesting that the Tesla dealers seem to think they are hitting their targets but the investors think Tesla will miss the projections. That means either the dealers have targets that are less in total than the number we were given or Tesla is ramping more than the data we are seeing.

I see a very long drum roll for the next 15 days :-O

What’s a Tesla dealer?

 

[Wenche]

I find it interesting that the Tesla dealers seem to think they are hitting their targets but the investors think Tesla will miss the projections. That means either the dealers have targets that are less in total than the number we were given or Tesla is ramping more than the data we are seeing.

I see a very long drum roll for the next 15 days :-O

Relax, hold your stocks, and don't do short term options. I expect Tesla to increase production, and as soon as they get the production up, there is no limit for the demand. I expect Tesla Model 3 to be the most selling vehicle in Norway in 2019, no matter ev or Ice. The rest of the world will follow. Give Elon some space, and he will do it.