Well, there are several things I'm keeping an eye on to try to predict the stock movement. One is the VIN registrations. I've been keeping an eye on that but it's been stagnant for quite a while, yet the stock has continued its up and down pattern. It looks like there are suggestions of a jump in production recently. If the suggestions grow stronger then I think we have a catalyst for the stock to climb again soon. It has been doing that regularly on rumors/anticipation of ramp progress even though in hindsight there really wasn't much progress. What seems to happen is the market anticipates ramp progression, positive sentiment develops, and the stock goes up. It often goes up 10%+, and then the market realizes there is no clear indication of ramp progress, so the stock goes back down. Sentiment turns overly negative, as it is now, and the stock often goes down 8%+. The market then realizes the ramp is going to likely progress soon, and resorts to buying the stock again (with shorts covering.) This is why the stock will likely climb again very soon even in the absence of good news.
The stock pattern over the last year has been consistent enough that I am primarily using it as a means of altering my leverage, trying to keep emotions and reactive guessing out of my trades as much as possible. I have to admit that I expected a reversal on Friday into close, with quite possibly a green candle. The dip near close surprised me. If it was an unusual afternoon due to manipulations resulting from Triple Witching day, then I would expect the coming week to be solidly green, following the usual pattern. The stock often likes to reverse after being pushed down well below a support level, and when it reverses it often does so dramatically. I thought we would see that on Friday, but instead we got a wishy-washy red day again because of the afternoon drop.
So, where do we go from here? I believe the bottom is near in terms of trading days but not necessarily in terms of the share price. I'm an amateur with technicals, so keep that in mind, but I do like to consider them. The stock has held up well at $321 but that keeps getting tested. Assuming no positive news this weekend, I think it will get tested again and may very well fail. Shorts continue to have success lately. Once it fails, stops would get triggered and the stock may drop a surprising amount. The moving averages are above us, so not there for support. The lower bollinger band historically can be violated dramatically but only for a day or 2. Even if the stock would somehow plunge to $300 or below, it is very likely to pop back up to the lower bollinger band, which would probably be around $310 or so at that point. I think it would be very likely to then rise or consolidate for a few days around that level. So, if we don't go up from here then I think we could find ourselves around $310 over the next few trading days based upon the chart. I'm going to continue this in another post since it's getting long.
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