TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

LOL, that's quite the view you have of your previous interactions.

Well, I for one am really touched by their concern, and how they usually seem to wander in here when the chips are down for us longs. It's just a beautiful exhibition of altruism for our financial well being if you ask me!

 

[RobStark]

For that reason the Tucker case does not apply to Tesla.

Tucker delivered a grand total of 51 cars.

 

[Ulmo]

I posted this earlier where the former SEC senior counsel pretty much saying SEC will most likely lose this case, Elon's tweet being "more than defensible".

Everything in that media clip seemed reasonable to me (from the middle man in the three way graphic).

Well, it's nice to have a four way interview on CNBC with real issues; if this is the leverage required to actually make them give a decent discussion, I don't want the world in which CNBC tells the truth most of the time.

 

[dondy]

"Panasonic has spent hundreds of millions on its partnerships with Tesla. It’s been laying out about 220 billion yen ($2 billion) annually in recent years on auto batteries, rising to 240 billion in the current year through March 2019. That includes spending on its Japanese plant and a new one in Dalian in China, but Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory 1 is still probably consuming a third of the total.

In recent months the perils of the relationship have come into focus. Panasonic’s energy business — a unit that includes batteries, but not solar — posted operating losses in the first quarter of its fiscal year, after earnings were hit by costs relating to the Nevada Gigafactory, in spite of higher sales. Tesla’s attempts to ramp up production aggressively rather than gradually have been a big “burden” on Panasonic’s profits, management said on an earnings call. Delays in shipments to Tesla also played a part."
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Terms of Service Violation

that was not exactly what they said. taken from the relevant earning call. Q1 2019 equivalent to Q2 2018 in USA.

Overall operating profit decreased due mainly to ramp-up
expenses for the automotive battery factory in North America,

From the second quarter onward, sales in the automotive battery business will continue to grow and are expected to contribute to increased profit in the second half of this fiscal year. Meanwhile, we will further enhance our rationalization efforts and fixed-cost management.

They have to mention ramp expenses because being a publicly traded corporation they are tied to quarterly reports and have to explain all big investments which would influence current finances. "Gradual expansion" parroted by Bloomberg is expansion performed while keeping "fixed cost" fixed, i.e. not growing. Reduction of the fixed costs (a ratio between current and some time ago) is a performance parameter they use to grade their managers.
"Free cash flow" thing poisoned Japan even more than USA because they take it seriously. "Effective" managers in Japan "should" to keep fixed costs down....
If anything inevitable success Panasonic will have with Tesla will make them to rethink their financial planning which is crippled now.

 

[brian45011]

Order for Initial Pretrial Conference

This right wing organization does not like da judge:
http://judicialactiongroup.org/data/sites/71/pdffiles/Allison Nathan Final 7611.pdf

 

[UncaNed]

Right now they need one thing to change the narrative: success - and that means, in the current twisted framing of Tesla, profitability.

.

SHORTSVILLE NEWS!

Teslas being shipped with twisted frames!

 

[Tslynk67]

If I had a wife, she'd kill me.

I know option costs are calculated differently, but rough napkin math tells me the SP only needs to be around 600 for me to be a millionaire. My 'lose money' line is around 230.

I wish you godspeed, my friend, but boy, I wouldn't like to live with that time-value ticking away!

I guess the wife and I both have pretty good jobs, all our shares are bought with cash, so if we lose the lot, it's a shame, but nothing changes.

 

[gora321]

#Tesla registered 1,569 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 117908.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

...but a bit worried about the future of the company if they cannot figure out how to streamline this process.

I realise you're disappointed, but that seems a bit of a strong statement given that we know they're in logistics hell.

 

[SO16]

Sorry, I never drank the kool aid...you folks are on your own. But I did warn you about the stock many times. Your welcome.

Great! Goodbye!

 

[Joe F]

I think the SEC would say it is protecting all market participants by enforcing the rules. Doesn't matter if you're long or short, put option holder or call option holder. Rules are rules.

I have a rule for you. The rule of supply and demand. Ever hear of it?

The demand for Tesla personal transporters is so high, it throws all the rules out of the window.

 

[dqd88]

There's a couple of Tesla growth wildcards that I can see:

• Once Tesla moves past the growing pains, when exactly is the first big ICE automotive player going to declare bankruptcy?
• If Tesla is going to be with the strongest free capital position by that time then they'll be able to buy out those factories, hire the workers before skills erode, and speed up the EV transition and growth.
• So IMO it's a race against the clock: can Tesla grow fast enough in the next 2-3 years before the ICE dominoes start falling? Or will the ICE industry be able to perform an amazing turnaround?
  
• Other than that, the EV transition will IMO still happen much faster than the construction time of the first Gigafactory suggests, as building more Gigafactories literally only requires capital and work at this point, there's very few R&D vagaries left.
• If Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory works out as planned, and if a Gigafactory indeed only takes 2 years to start generating cash then growth should be exponential with a rough doubling of production capacity every 2 years in the most aggressive scenario (and ~40% YoY revenue growth) - and production growth probably still won't be able to keep up with growing EV demand.

Overall I believe there's a significant chance, if the ICE industry continues to make unforced errors, that the EV transition is going to be the most disruptive and most immediate step in the Fourth Industrial Revolution of humanity.

But, please keep in mind that these are all pie-in-the-sky possibilities at the moment, there's still a lot of front-loaded uncertainties and risk factors IMO: Tesla needs to execute, execute and execute, and Elon also needs to win a lawsuit.

I agree and I align with your perspective on how this might unfold. You really think ahead and about all possible paths.

For certain, ICE co's will have a big fork in the road. Do they

1. go all-in on EV
2. gradually and slowly convert, and have both ICE and EV in lineup
3. decide it's not worth it, stick with ICE, and accept a possible demise

There will be so much shake up, I see some mergers, maybe even some will seek to be acquired by Tesla in desperation. They will at some point accept the reality that Tesla is so far ahead in understanding the space that they will essentially bow down, or else remain cocky, stick to their laurels, like Bob Lutz and die. We should start to see some dominoes fall within a few years. And correct, that will be a nice inflection point.

OR... I could see a somewhat different scenario play out... where their is a divergence, driven by the cultural divide. Which, let's face it, is what is separating the Tesla haters from the believers. Vast patches of the midwest and south will be very slow to adopt EV. Ford and GM may accept that that's their market, stick with ICE because that's what those simpletons want, and this scenario may exist for a while. Ford and GM know their customers and they will be the last to adopt.
I live in Cali, was raised in Ohio. The divide is clear; you see many more BMWs in CA than OH. Tesla will propagate (is propagating fast) in the BMW markets. The "simpleton" markets (sorry, not trying to be judgemental)... will remain loyal (partly due to affordability) and be last to adopt EV.

I hope you're right about the pace that T can build gigafactories.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I hope that one thing that will drive Tesla semi/truck adoption is you can be philosophically opposed all you want, but when the real world numbers of fuel/maintenance savings start driving business decisions even red counties/states will begin to adopt them.

Probably gives an out to Ford/GM if they can get offerings to market with their badges on the front quick enough.

No wonder all these guys hate this company so much!

 

[Intl Professor]

Just pondering the day we live in, instead of being lemmings to bullshit headlines and talking heads, we can get the full legal filings at the convenience of our smartphones and decide for ourselves it's horseshit.

Planning on writing a letter to the SEC, cc my senator and rep. Any advice?

Use bull excrement. Not an advice.

 

[lklundin]

I think you will make that back (and more) by October 2nd.

This would be obvious, given the (usually accurate) estimates of Tesla's quarterly deliveries, making them a top US passenger car maker. (That is actually a strange thing to write having for so many years followed Tesla, the perpetually & imminently Chapter 11 filing, niche auto maker).

However, I think it will take a somewhat longer than that before Lycanthrope (and myself and all other longs) will make up for Friday's drop. Did I understand it correctly that TSLA has a couple of days off from the short sellers? Also, the FUD machine is running, with the usual suspects (e.g. Linette Lopez) spewing out their nonsense.

But probably sooner than later, after all many media reports find the SEC's action excessive.

I didn't have the ability to buy while the plainly immaterial marijuana smoke clouded the markets perception of TSLA, but I did buy Friday after concluding that the SEC action is also immaterial.

While TSLA will surely remain volatile, I was hoping for an opportunity to buy at a discount before the reality of the Q3 numbers sets in. It will be interesting to see what happens then.

 

[Tslynk67]

And Norway delivered (pun intended), with 7 more deliveries that this time last year. 0.3%, not much, until you consider they're already 1600 up YoY - and this is still S&X, don't forget, the demand for M3 there is going to be iiiiiiinsane

P.S. my wife is Danish, so I can speak on Scandinavian matters with authority.

 

[dqd88]

Per Q2 earnings call, no need, desire or intention to raise additional capital. Debt and capital needs will be met by free cash flow.

Fire Away!

They'll have enough cash to build gigafactories? What do those cost? Seems like a stretch. China factory excluded (local debt instrument), and I'm assuming the Europe one will use similar structure. So yeah, maybe you're right. The new US factory is the main question mark.

 

[Intl Professor]

I am not familiar with federal practice in NY, but many jurisdictions require some form of alternate dispute resolution (often mediation) before the parties are allowed to proceed to trial.

According to court findings, linked in above post, in February that is what the judge is scheduled to hear in the very first meeting of the parties in Southern District. Unless, of course, the case can be dismissed first which apparently is the first step of Elon's lawyers.

 

[dqd88]

I thought that only applied to the company making an announcement. In this case he was personally announcing something, and I don't think that anybody that is going to say that they are thinking about buying a company has to notify the NASDAQ ahead of time...

I'm not privy to the exact rule, but my impression that the rule applied to information that might move the market, cause market confusion, etc. NASDAQ wants a heads up. Maybe it's not even a rule, just a courtesy thing, idk.

 

[Tslynk67]

This would be obvious, given the (usually accurate) estimates of Tesla's quarterly deliveries, making them a top US passenger car maker. (That is actually a strange thing to write having for so many years followed Tesla, the perpetually & imminently Chapter 11 filing, niche auto maker).

However, I think it will take a somewhat longer than that before Lycanthrope (and myself and all other longs) will make up for Friday's drop. Did I understand it correctly that TSLA has a couple of days off from the short sellers? Also, the FUD machine is running, with the usual suspects (e.g. Linette Lopez) spewing out their nonsense.

But probably sooner than later, after all many media reports find the SEC's action excessive.

I didn't have the ability to buy while the plainly immaterial marijuana smoke clouded the markets perception of TSLA, but I did buy Friday after concluding that the SEC action is also immaterial.

While TSLA will surely remain volatile, I was hoping for an opportunity to buy at a discount before the reality of the Q3 numbers sets in. It will be interesting to see what happens then.

Yes, it's rather unfortunate because I had in in mind that we'd see a 10-15% rally with Q3 deliveries taking us back to the 330/50 range, with a further boost after Q3ER to above 400. This could still happen, but from a base of 265 it more clawing back to 300, then up to the 350's.

On the other hand, I wonder if after a few days contemplation, people won't realise that this SEC is all a load of BS and nothing's going to happen, might even be withdrawn when some new magical evidence is presented.

In any case, even it it went to $1000 on Monday, I'm not selling, so it's all moot, but nevertheless, the SP swings do affect my moods and general well-being, which does make it stressful. Why that is, difficult to day, more that it's a general indication of Tesla's success, although the two seem to be de-coupled at the moment.

For sure I see no risk of Tesla failing. As discussed today, Musk could use money from Space-X to buy or bail-out Tesla. He could take Space-X public if necessary - that would be enormous and raise bigly-cash. So no worries on that front, the shorts are dreaming if they think that could possibly happen.