TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[beachbum77]

For me, it's not even about Elon anymore. I love his "extremely aggressive moat-bridging" business strategies. But after a point, a company can run on its own momentum. Tesla's strategy is pretty locked in stone right now. And I'm not the sort of person who thinks "only Elon micromanaging everything can keep the company going".

Don't get me wrong, I strongly support him for CEO. But in my view, Tesla is locked into a great strategic path regardless. Unless they go under some sort of "conservative" management, I'll remain bullish on this stock. The day when they switch to a rent-keeping stance and paying dividends is where I completely exit the stock.

I completely agree. Tesla is now on a path that could lead to good things with or without Musk. But there are some serious issues that still need to be addressed in the production and delivery systems to continue the positive momentum.

A good look at Troy's spreadsheet is startling. I see no excuse for people who placed orders in April and May to still be waiting for VINs. It makes no sense when people are getting cars in 10 days or less from placing orders. Focus needs to be directed to these orders immediately or their loyalty will be lost.

 

[KarenRei]

I have always invested in directionality. Tesla has a chance to build some great upward momentum now. As long as Tesla can keep Musk off Twitter...

You know, that's the one part of the SEC settlement that I actually really like - the media policy mandates. I've been wanting Tesla to force a filter on Musk for quite a long time. Not a muzzle - his openness about tech details, product planning, Q&A with the public, etc is an IMHO underappreciated (and free) boost to public interest his companies; he has 23M Twitter followers for a reason. Even the occasional "minorly controversial" statement is a good thing. But he needs someone making sure he doesn't go to far, because as we all know, the guy has no filter in his brain

 

[Fact Checking]

I have always invested in directionality. Tesla has a chance to build some great upward momentum now. As long as Tesla can keep Musk off Twitter...

Yeah, and I already suggested Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson as a new Tesla board member, and in the new social media Tesla board policy there should be a final fail-safe measure: "Wrestle Elon down, take his smartphone, delete the Twitter app".

For higher shareholder value.

 

[gora321]

Stormy weather in ICE world:
French sales slip 13% in September on WLTP

 

[Fact Checking]

I apologize if I missed something very obvious, but his tweet has timestamp Friday 10 AM, so would that not be before the end of that day's trading ?

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

You are right! Maybe there will be a new post today so we can see the late Friday short interest.

I had the impression that only few shorts covered: they were expecting a Q3 miss plus further price drops due to the SEC news.

 

[Remus]

I suspect not, and that I think is the most important difference between bulls and bears who actually think deeply about this stock. I look at trends in interest costs, likelihood of downgrade, and limits on the ability to obtain supplier funding, and then (because my expertise is primarily in finance, not manufacturing/auto) I read all I can about production costs and issues and likely demand levels. Overall, I suspect that they will not be able to make the SR at a sustained profit (or, put another way, I don't think they will find enough demand at a level which allows them to make a profit).

You used long and winding sentences with professional wording to sound authoritative, without any substance. We usually call this corporate BS.

I thought you are better than this.

 

[gora321]

Who has an Army of volunteers to work for free? It is unbelievable sales force and next level of customers satisfactory!
ps. news from legacy world
After settling with SEC, Musk tries to answer other question

 

[elasalle]

This may turn out to be the most profitable two trading days (Friday & today) in our fund's history. On Friday we closed all of our long-dated puts and bought $300 calls near the end of the day that expire Friday, purchased for under $2 each. By expiration, they could be up 10x or more. My SA readers are going to *sugar* when they see I am long Tesla on my next article later this week.

Hide your gains, You could get Sued for this ....

 

[Tiger]

Stormy weather in ICE world:
French sales slip 13% in September on WLTP

Yeah, just google [wltp delay] and you'll see which stocks are about to tank

 

[Nate the Great]

Premarket is 307.

 

[Words of HABIT]

 

[emir-t]

I wonder if today will stay 300-307 like premarket or we take this to new heights closer to 350$.

 

[beachbum77]

It's the risk of being blinded by your ideology / point of view. It's the main reason I like having some shorts here and why I regularly check out what's going on over on Seeking Alpha. Hanging out too long in an echo chamber is dangerous.

I assume it's the same situation for you in reverse.

Actually, not such a directional difference between us Karen. I am generally a "long" investor. But every now and then I see opportunities to make money in puts if I think a valuation has gotten ahead of itself. That has been my position with Tesla since buying SolarCity.

Under the leadership of a new Chairman, we could see some of these missteps corrected and a much stronger Tesla emerge. Solar needs to go away and be replaced with a much greater effort in battery storage if the numbers make sense. None of us get enough detail to know just how profitable the energy storage business really is or could be.

I still believe the Semi (with its low order numbers) should be shelved and all resources moved to the Model Y development. NIO, BYD and others are already out with new SUV offerings that are smoking the Chinese market. Tesla will be at least a few years behind them.

There are some big challenges ahead too. The halving of the FITC here and the decline in new U.S. orders according to Troy's spreadsheet. The huge impact tariffs are having on sales in China. Tesla delivered just 288 Model S units and "under 200" Model X units (no one so far has reported the actual number) in China in August. September was no doubt just as bad. Tesla needs a Chinese factory "yesterday". We should not be expecting Chinese banks to offer "no money down" financing terms so that means another draw down on the available cash.

But none of these issues are Tesla "killers". They just need attention from a dedicated BoD with clear directions given to the CEO. The choice of a new Chairman will be a VERY critical decision for Tesla's future.

 

[BenPrice]

So much volume on Puts that were OTM on Friday...

Millions to dust.

 

[bhtooefr]

Not to dust, but rather transferred to whoever was writing the puts.

 

[BenPrice]

Not to dust, but rather transferred to whoever was writing the puts.

I take a personal perspective

From experience

 

[Nate the Great]

Just a reminder there is a General Thread, which would be applicable for many people on here.

I hope and think that it trades this range, I could see it becoming more active with the delivery report.

 

[Joe F]

7am EST is actually pretty early for pre-market. I think.

I use Robinhood and only can get in at 9am. I've missed this boat, badly.

Fidelity. 7 AM. Usually not a good time to buy though given the first 15 min of trading once the bell rings, esp with TSLA and short action. Usually.

 

[mongo]

Fidelity. 7 AM. Usually not a good time to buy though given the first 15 min of trading once the bell rings, esp with TSLA and short action. Usually.

Indeed. Usually, but not today. No shorting induced MMD due to SEC rule 201 (uptick) being active, at most they can attempt to cap by selling into a upward trend. Should be interesting...

 

[Tslynk67]

Fading a bit in pre-market. One assumes there was some huge covering earlier, now it's perhaps general buying?

Hopefully when the bell goes we'll get another push upwards...