TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

literally why not? the ONLY restricting factor is production, which they are exponentially ramping up. They make the best vehicles. Period.

Well, I wouldn't call anything in the EV industry "exponential" at this stage other than possible domestic EV battery production. If we could get to 200K Tesla sold in 2018-2019 that would be great. It's not going to 2 million over the next five years even. Let alone some of the numbers below.

There were over 90 million cars sold worldwide in 2017. EV probably less than 2% WW. In USA we've had four years of 17 million vehicles sold.

There is simply no way that Tesla or anyone else is going to be able to ramp up to any numbers like that within a few years. Probably not even a decade. Forget production volume, just sheer battery elements availability could NEVER provide enough capacity in that time frame.
second, the consumer adoption based on the varied deficiencies of EV in large markets like USA is just another market and social constraints and that ain't changing in that time frame. Think of ALL the current supercharges from Tesla in the USA for just over 200K cars TOTAL. Can you imagine what the infrastructure build out required would be if a significant percentage of vehicles RAPIDLY moved to be EV. It would be a decade plus national objective to get there and there isn't any political interest with the current administration to do or fund ANY of that.

I could go on.

But yes, could Tesla become dominant in USA and a few other countries, compared to OTHER EV manufacturers products in 3-5 years, yep. But as far as some form of "dominance" in the overall auto industry, probably not in 25 years.

don't forget, I'm a believer! But I'm also a rational realist

see this post
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[Xpert]

Umm...where’s the rest if it? The SP isn’t even $310. I’ll prick my ears a bit when the SP is level to pre-private tweet AND rising strongly from there based on Q3 numbers.

Until then, been here, done this for months on end. We’ve gained nothing. Tomorrow the shorts get free reign again.

What rest of it? And it is above $310, where i called for above $300 for today, and you said thats unadulterated wishful thinking, takes a few weeks to recover a one day drop eh? Thats pretty strong words.

Perhaps I was talking about today Monday and you were thinking long term. In any case I’m going to drop this and move on. we’re all big winners today, One battle at a time.

 

[ggies07]

RE: the auto industry dying -

To make matters worse, we have the blind leading the blind. The industry is cracking and yet those in power think everything is fine....

Trump takes a victory lap on his NAFTA replacement deal with Mexico and Canada

Among the details in the agreement are requirements for 75 percent of auto content to be made in North America, up from 62.5 percent, and that 40 to 45 percent of the auto content is made by workers making at least $16 an hour.

 

[RobStark]

But yes, could Tesla become dominant in USA and a few other countries, compared to OTHER EV manufacturers products in 3-5 years, yep. But as far as some form of "dominance" in the overall auto industry, probably not in 25 years.

Tesla sales will shoot up and global automotive sales will go down.

As Tesla scales there will be more profits to expand quickly, by traditional automotive industry standards.

Charging infrastructure doesn't need to scale linearly with sales.

A lot of chargers are unused most of the time, they are there just in case. There are certain choke points where charging stations are full and new nearby stations need to be built.

India, SE Asia, Africa, nor Latin America wants to be dependent on OPEC + Russia for energy.

It not just the Industrialized countries plus China that would strongly prefer to be energy independent.

 

[DragonWatch]

Tesla will screen 'Cars 3' at Gigafactory as thank you to employees 

This P's me off big time, in fine print I am specifically not invited! I could have smashed two stones into one by going to see my wife's parents with her and taken my GrandPups to see the movie-all-in one Could have made it like a drive-in ~ opened the the tailgate (Model X) and watched the movie!

I just finished logging onto father-in-law's computer to update his Excel checking ledger ~ deleted some unused lines in September. And to think he was actually a rocket scientist He was consulted following the first loss of astronauts.

 

[RobStark]

RE: the auto industry dying -

To make matters worse, we have the blind leading the blind. The industry is cracking and yet those in power think everything is fine....

Trump takes a victory lap on his NAFTA replacement deal with Mexico and Canada

Model 3 Long Range RWD qualifies.

50% US/Canadian and 25% Mexican.

 

[MXWing]

Someone please explain to me how short sellers couldn’t have hurt Tesla today.

Not obscure technicalities but substantial and realistic reasons why they couldn’t.

They could have sold any thing above open, Building a bigger position and depressing prices??

Somehow shorts can do something magically tomorrow they couldn’t do today seems fuddish?

 

[Krugerrand]

What rest of it? And it is above $310, where i called for above $300 for today, and you said thats unadulterated wishful thinking, takes a few weeks to recover a one day drop eh? Thats pretty strong words.

Perhaps I was talking about today Monday and you were thinking long term. In any case I’m going to drop this and move on. we’re all big winners today, One battle at a time.

Yes, it did fully recover today from the Friday pounding, which it never has in its history. But the shorts were limited today.

 

[RiverCard]

Model 3 Long Range RWD qualifies.

50% US/Canadian and 25% Mexican.

Which components make up the 25% Mexican content?

 

[MXWing]

Yes, it did fully recover today from the Friday pounding, which it never has in its history. But the shorts were limited today.

Please explain their limitations? Tesla could have been red from enough long selling in combination with shorting spikes?

 

[SpaceCash]

Someone please explain to me how short sellers couldn’t have hurt Tesla today.

Not obscure technicalities but substantial and realistic reasons why they couldn’t.

They could have sold any thing above open, Building a bigger position and depressing prices??

Somehow shorts can do something magically tomorrow they couldn’t do today seems fuddish?

MXWing, it's because the short circuit breaker will be off tomorrow. It was in effect today, triggered by Friday's >10% drop, so they could only short on upticks today. It makes a substantial difference.

 

[ZachF]

Which components make up the 25% Mexican content?

This.

And how do they gauge the percentages... weight? cost? part numbers? value added?

 

[RobStark]

Which components make up the 25% Mexican content?

I don't know all of the Mexican components, that would be a rather long list.

I do know the brakes and most if not all the wheels are Mexican.

 

[neroden]

That entirely misses the point. And that's North American heavy rail, which has notoriously inefficient processes. (Those same processes are what makes Amtrak's service outside of a couple of corridors so mediocre, because they use the freight rails and are secondary to the freight traffic, in most of the US.)

@neroden's point is that the laws of physics greatly favor trains for efficient passenger service, as opposed to minibuses and personal cars (what The Boring Company currently proposes to send down their tunnels). And, there's tons of examples of successful passenger train services around the world.

What he said. I'm all for Musk running his own company with underground trains. The existing ones in the US aren't even following international standard practices, and one could do better than international standard practice.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

What happened to the cautious and sometimes skeptical Wooloomooloo that I know? You hacked his account?

I think being skeptical is healthy (unlike being a cynic) but the numbers look good and the competition is further behind than I thought. A lot further behind.

I still think Q2 '19 is the quarter where it all happens - it's exciting!

 

[RobStark]

This.

And how do they gauge the percentages... weight? cost? part numbers? value added?

I am pretty sure it is value added of the hardware and value of the labor for final assembly.

Not software.

 

[dqd88]

IMO this otherwise clear analysis leaves out the visceral experience of being in a Tesla. As long as Tesla (or others) have no offerings below ~$35K, cheaper ICE vehicles will sell to increasingly bitter and disappointed people who've ridden in their neighbor's Tesla. Not an attractive business to be in.

Yes. And my interpretation of "increasingly bitter and disappointed people" is essentially "creating a visceral desire to own a Tesla". It's like free marketing.

 

[dc_h]

You may want to update your info. EVs were less than 1% back in 2016. This year we are looking at 2.2% share on 2.1M light EV up 64% from prior year (EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database). At this growth rate, EVs can breach 10% share by 2021. I'm not sure why 10% is a magic number. Losing more than 7% market share over the next three years has got to be quite threatening to ICE makers. This lose of market share is coming fast enough that the ICE market is firmly in structural decline within three years.

Two separate points about this market share idea.

1: Tesla is primarily in cars for now. 50% plus of USA market is trucks and SUV’s. Model 3 as a percent of cars manufuctered in America’s will be over 10% in 2019–only 4 million cars are built in the USA.
2: completely unrelated to point one is how fast market share moves once momentum is established. My dad worked for sears in the 1970’s and early 80’s. I had my first Econ class and we had to invest in stocks. I saw that sears had a competitor in Walmart, not much more than 10% the size of sears in 1978(from memory) and only a decade later sears was selling the family jewels to stay in business. A few years later a professor talking about compounding, when asked if China would pass the USA, said it would never happen, right after explaining the penny on the chess board.
Anyhow, Ford won’t be the last to get out of cars and focus on trucks and SUV’s. But the rear guard battle is seldom fought to regain the high ground, it is only to preserve the generals and senior officers. For sears, they did retain pensions and benefits for the front line, but each passing decade those severances have become less generous. If Tesla has the cash flow to start building both the Y, Roadster and a truck by 2021, there is going to be serious retrenchment soon thereafter. It will be interesting if any major western manufacturer will have a serious competitive response to Tesla. So far I don’t see anything matching features or price.

 

[beachbum77]

Tesla already guided for that possibility at the last ER - so despite yet another leaked internal for employees only email, it’s not new material information.

Sorry if this was already reported back to you but I am trying to catch up on 30 pages from this afternoon.

It was new material news and Tesla did file an 8-K.

TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. 8-K (Current Report)

 

[dqd88]

Items of interest going forward into next quarter... and beyond

12600 cars produced but not delivered in Q2, likely larger number for Q4
Panasonic increase in production coming soon ~30%
The tunnel GA lines 2x... increase production 30%
Tesla starts Market/AD Group (replaces EM Twitter account)
SuperCharger growth self sustains
Tesla Trucking/Shipping Division outgrows Fedex, UPS combined
GF Shanghai, GF Europe break ground funded by partnerships with BMW and Didikaching

BMW partners with Tesla/Panasonic to produce GF battery production, soon followed by Toyota/Honda/Tesla partnership. World Battery Production is doubled by China and Tesla competition.

These are some Nostradamus like predictions. Interesting stuff

I do think there should be a Tesla Investor Relations twitter. @TeslaIR for all financial stuff