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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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But that changes so fast. They are always unprepared for a downturn. How fast did they all go down in 2008? Their fixed and legacy costs are huge. They operate on razor thin margins. A combination recession (coming soon...2020?) and secular shift to EVs will spell doom for them way too fast for anyone's liking. If they don't start piling those billions of dollars in profits into EVs immediately, they are going to go down in flames. Then of course we get to hear the familiar "Who could have imagined?..."

I used to think this... but I'm not so sure.. I think that for premium car makers you are correct, but for Ford/GM, they have their target customer, who prob will remain an ICE buyer for some time. Plus there just isn't enough profit at low price point. I think this is fine for Tesla. Let Tesla continue to capture market share in premium segment, hopefully become #1 globablly. Then after battery cost is viable, create affordable nameplate to give the death blow to Ford/GM. This is more organic way to grow for Tesla and EV.
 
The uptick rule does the following, in my understanding:
  • It prohibits market makers from executing 'short sales' that mark down the price actively,
  • 'short sales' are sell orders by traders who have a short position in TSLA,
  • 'mark down actively' are orders that consume active liquidity on the bid: market/stop/vwap sell orders and sell limit orders with a low bid price.
  • Iceberg and other dark liquidity orders and secondary markets are affected too.
  • In practice it's all automated: shorts, when they try to execute such orders, get an order rejection from the exchange.
  • Short sellers are still allowed to sell short, by putting their SELL LIMIT order at least $0.01 higher than the current bid price. They are also allowed to buy to cover, of course.
I.e. shorts can "slow down" the rise of the price, like regular bearish investors selling some of their shares would, but they are not allowed to use the aggressive price manipulation tools they normally have: market, stop and limit orders that actively reduce the current price. (Which few bearish investors who sell would use, as it would mark down the price.)

That shorts are actively using these tools to create spikes down is all too evident from the price action, on almost every TSLA trading day: on bullish days they stop rallies and hunt stops on the way down, on bearish days they break through key resistance levels, on panic selling days they significantly magnify waves of selling. I've made several posts about the "spike seller" who was particularly aggressive about marking down TSLA on certain trading days.

Note how on Friday most of the drop was in the opening tick - the downside volatility was much lower during the day, largely due to the uptick rule preventing most short-seller shenanigans, IMO. There was still a lot of bearish selling because the SEC lawsuit was genuinely concerning news to many investors, but there were no artificial panic breakdowns in the price, manufactured by shorts.

We saw something very similar after the recent NYT drop as well, which activated the uptick rule for two days as well.

Maybe @Papafox could chime in as well?

Monday could demonstrate how price rallies in a world without short price manipulation would look like.

Thanks @Fact Checking for the excellent post. I like to refer to the visuals of how TSLA is trading as an example of what up and down days look like with and without the uptick rule in effect. For an extreme example of short manipulations when the uptick rule is NOT invoked, check out this image from Oct 4, 2016, the day after the excellent Q3 16 production and delivery report. There is no way you could get this type of price carnage with the uptick rule in place. Look at the extent of the mandatory morning dip. Look at all the "icicles" in which the shorts push hard down is wild shorting, the longs buy and force the SP back up, and the process keeps getting repeated until one side or the other wears out. This is extremely disruptive trading for longs to endure.
histoct04.JPG
Oct 4, 2016 example of short-seller manipulations without uptick rule in effect

sep11beforeafter.jpg

Sept 7, 2018 trading which shows SEC uptick rule kicking in at about 10am. Notice the steep icicles before 10am. Notice the immediate recovery from the dip that was possible once the uptick rule came into effect about 10am. Notice the lack of deep short-selling icicles after 10am. The trading with and without the uptick rule is night and day.

A weekend passes and then we get to see a green day (on good news) with the uptick rule still in effect on Sept 10. Here's what the chart looks like:
sep10chart.png

Again, compared to a typical up day, with the uptick rule in place you see substantially fewer of the steep climbs, "systematic walking down" of the SP, and then a repeat, like we see on up days without the uptick rule in effect.

BTW, can you explain why on October 5, 2016, TSLA took a big dip just prior to close?
histoct05.JPG

The answer is that the next day, Goldman released a really negative note regarding TSLA. The problem here is twofold: first, someone leaked the Goldman note news beforehand and a lot of short-selling took place illegally, and second the timing of the note was absolutely perfect for giving TSLA the push down it needed to get the downtrend established. There's real collusion between certain analysts and media members with the short-sellers, and Tesla investors suffer for it.

My suggestion is that rather than a class-action suit against the SEC, a better approach would be to first bring these clearly illegal practices to the attention of the SEC and say that, out of fairness, the SEC needs to be as vigilant in regarding the short-seller side of TSLA as it has been in responding to complaints about Elon. Let's talk about how how we move forward. If the SEC ignores our call for their involvement, then is the time to bring a class-action suit.
 
Has anyone considered how fast ICE sales will die the day the first poor owner of a late model BMW tries to trade it in and learns used ICE cars are as worthless as great grandma's fine bone china?

That day will be here very soon, and this is a powerful selling point against buying anything other than a Tesla.
Exactly. And this inflection point will seem to come out of nowhere.
 
EVs have less than 1% worldwide market share now. It has to first reach 10% before it threatens ICE market.
You may want to update your info. EVs were less than 1% back in 2016. This year we are looking at 2.2% share on 2.1M light EV up 64% from prior year (EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database). At this growth rate, EVs can breach 10% share by 2021. I'm not sure why 10% is a magic number. Losing more than 7% market share over the next three years has got to be quite threatening to ICE makers. This lose of market share is coming fast enough that the ICE market is firmly in structural decline within three years.
 
Things feel different this time. I definitely get you, but the hype feels like it's on a different level, and the numbers are looking to be reallllllly exciting. I bet we end the week above tree fitty

Ok, except I bought some around this time LAST YEAR at $315ish AFTER a drop from $350ish.

So ending the week at $350 is still undervalued - a lot and only gets us to pre-tweet level.

Nope, I’m going to need a lot more SP up movement to get me excited enough to come out of my short induced coma.

I’d be delighted if it was different this time, but I didn’t see anyone change the movie reel, yet.
 
Items of interest going forward into next quarter... and beyond

12600 cars produced but not delivered in Q2, likely larger number for Q4
Panasonic increase in production coming soon ~30%
The tunnel GA lines 2x... increase production 30%
Tesla starts Market/AD Group (replaces EM Twitter account)
SuperCharger growth self sustains
Tesla Trucking/Shipping Division outgrows Fedex, UPS combined
GF Shanghai, GF Europe break ground funded by partnerships with BMW and Didikaching

BMW partners with Tesla/Panasonic to produce GF battery production, soon followed by Toyota/Honda/Tesla partnership. World Battery Production is doubled by China and Tesla competition.
 
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Is this accurate?

Business Insider out with an article the headline of which blares that Elon “got booted off the board.” I thought he just had to step down as Chairman but would still be on the board?

Elon Musk got booted off Tesla's board — but some big questions still remain (TSLA) | Markets Insider

Not accurate. CEO can be on the board and not be the chairman (can also be on the board in a non-voting capacity).
Can a CEO Also Be a Board Member? | AllBusiness.com
 
Yes, very interesting.

In addition to the TSLA investor's point of view, I am also very interested in seeing Q3 US sales for the other passenger car makers.

Now that it is unfolding in full view we must start to get some indication of which companies will be challenged in adapting to Tesla's Secret Master Plan. Everyone?

As far as I can see, the September numbers come out on Wednesday:
2018 U.S. Monthly Auto Sales Calendar And Selling Days For Every Month

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Automakers report on different days. But yeah, might all be in by Wed, or Thur.
 
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How soon is "soon" ? 2020, 2025, 2030 ?

EVs have less than 1% worldwide market share now. It has to first reach 10% before it threatens ICE market.

ICE manufacturers have dabbled in EVs - and they are assuming when the time comes (battery is cheap) they will make the switch. Infact I think most will. Some will perish, some will be propped up be their governments. Toyota & Honda, for eg., won't be let to die. Nor will the German automakers die.

Do you remember in 2007, Steve Jobs said it would be awesome if the iPhone captured 1% of the market, because that would be 10 million phones... 10 years and 1 billion phone sales later...

ICE cars have a finite life, because there is only about 50 years of oil remaining at current consumption levels. That's an inevitability, not up for debate.

Tasha Keeney from ARK Invest today made the point that Tesla is 3 years ahead in battery tech, 3 years ahead in autonomous hardware AND data (because they're the only ones with actual cars on the road). The Model 3 has the highest gross of any car in the US market RIGHT NOW. Other auto makers have to both catch up with Tesla AND maintain their current manufacturing and sales in ICE cars, so they don't give up that market to one another. That's going to be really hard for them to do... VW need to try and sell a $25k 'Golf'-like car, because VW drivers love them. That's going to be really hard to do.

Tesla don't have to worry about legacy. Like Apple, they can just look forward and not be concerned with history. ICE manufacturers have to transition people from the Ford Focus to the Ford EV, at the same price, with the same infrastructure for the average Joe/Josephine. Ugh... that's not going to be easy for them.

I've been resistant to the Apple parallels for about a year - but the similarities are uncanny. High margins, the best applied technology (it's no good having the best stuff in the labs) and a slightly crazy CEO (yes, it's the crazy ones that change the world).

BTW, she said Tesla stock is destined for $4,000... she also said they factored in a $10bn to $20bn equity based cash raise.

Bullish? Yes. Entirely off the wall? Maybe not...
 
Diesel over here (UK) is £1.34 X1.3 ($\£) per litre x number of litres/ US gallon and you get the picture. Approx 58% of this is tax to HMG. And people complain about oil companies and producer countries when it goes up, whose robbing who ?

People who buy cars that burn this *sugar* are robbing us of clean air!
 
How soon is "soon" ? 2020, 2025, 2030 ?

EVs have less than 1% worldwide market share now. It has to first reach 10% before it threatens ICE market.

ICE manufacturers have dabbled in EVs - and they are assuming when the time comes (battery is cheap) they will make the switch. Infact I think most will. Some will perish, some will be propped up be their governments. Toyota & Honda, for eg., won't be let to die. Nor will the German automakers die.

The biggest threat to ICE continues to be self-driving cars. It is really a race now as to whether self-driving will come first or 10% EV market share will come first.
 
Do you remember in 2007, Steve Jobs said it would be awesome if the iPhone captured 1% of the market, because that would be 10 million phones... 10 years and 1 billion phone sales later...

ICE cars have a finite life, because there is only about 50 years of oil remaining at current consumption levels. That's an inevitability, not up for debate.

Tasha Keeney from ARK Invest today made the point that Tesla is 3 years ahead in battery tech, 3 years ahead in autonomous hardware AND data (because they're the only ones with actual cars on the road). The Model 3 has the highest gross of any car in the US market RIGHT NOW. Other auto makers have to both catch up with Tesla AND maintain their current manufacturing and sales in ICE cars, so they don't give up that market to one another. That's going to be really hard for them to do... VW need to try and sell a $25k 'Golf'-like car, because VW drivers love them. That's going to be really hard to do.

Tesla don't have to worry about legacy. Like Apple, they can just look forward and not be concerned with history. ICE manufacturers have to transition people from the Ford Focus to the Ford EV, at the same price, with the same infrastructure for the average Joe/Josephine. Ugh... that's not going to be easy for them.

I've been resistant to the Apple parallels for about a year - but the similarities are uncanny. High margins, the best applied technology (it's no good having the best stuff in the labs) and a slightly crazy CEO (yes, it's the crazy ones that change the world).

BTW, she said Tesla stock is destined for $4,000... she also said they factored in a $10bn to $20bn equity based cash raise.

Bullish? Yes. Entirely off the wall? Maybe not...

I don't think it's as crazy as it could sound.

With ~$35 billion in revenue next year and ~30% growth/year after puts 2023 revenue at ~$100 billion/year. If you're the clear leader in two emerging technologies (Autonomous driving and EVs), and have decent profit, a $700b market cap probably isn't that crazy. $700 billion probably wont even put you in the top ten for largest market cap in 2023 either.
 
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