TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

have to go 3D with roads, ie - build tunnels.

Well, y'know, if you're an idiot. Or if you're intelligent, you use a frickin' train and have to build *1/10* as many tunnels, which *tends* to be *substantially* cheaper.

If Musk is planning to do these tunnels as for-profit ventures, he can't afford to spend ten times the cost he needs to for the same people-moving capacity. If he's planning to get taxpayer subsidies, that's different, of course, but in that case *I* don't want to pay 10 times as much as I need to in taxes, either.

To be clear about this, although I really like train travel, I'm realistic: there basically shouldn't be any trains in Idaho or in West Texas, because there aren't enough people there. Where there should be trains is underneath LA and SF and NYC and so on -- and tunneling can be done far better and cheaper than it is being done now, but nonsense about car tunnels and tiny vehicles is a distraction.

 

[JRP3]

The strong part of the SEC case was the other bits, and so Musk really needed to settle.
-- Musk *really* should have known that he couldn't keep all small stockholders in the company if it went private. If I can look this up, Musk could have too. He made a statement which he believed to be true, but *should have known* was false, had he done even a few minutes of due diligence. And the SEC can fine you for that sort of recklenessness.

His statement was qualified with the word "hope" as I remember, not a guarantee. He also knew that SpaceX employees could hold private stock.

-- Likewise, he should have known better than to say that a stockholder vote was the *only* remaining hurdle -- government approvals, board approvals, etc. were necessary, and he *should have known* that. He apparently didn't know it, but he had reason why he ought to have. And the SEC can fine you for that sort of recklessness.

Still the entire "deal" was speculative, "Am considering", is a speculative action required to lay out every possibility in detail? If as you say, and I agree, "funding secured" was not binding why would any of it be so?

 

[neroden]

What do you mean by expressway?

Expressway: Grade-separated roads with two travel lanes in each direction, minimum, and entrance and exit ramps.

They're very expensive, they take up a humungous amount of space, they trash the real estate values of anything nearby, and they're... honestly, not very effective at moving people or trucks or anything else.

You can move more people or goods on a two-track railway than a 10-lane expressway.

Local roads are a necessity; the best way to get things and people to every little house or farm. Two-lane arterials are a reasonably priced way to build up a road network. A few turn lanes or shoulders aren't that much more expensive. And in a rural area (or a quiet suburb or small town), typically that's enough -- that works, and you don't get enough traffic to need more.

It's after those start getting overcrowded that the more exotically expensive roads, like expressways, start being proposed. And they're the opposite of cost-effective.

Car tunnels at least don't destroy the local real estate values (except at the entrances and exits), but they're stupendously expensive considering their low throughput.

Are you in favor of road diet?

Often.

 

[dqd88]

Well, y'know, if you're an idiot. Or if you're intelligent, you use a frickin' train and have to build *1/10* as many tunnels, which *tends* to be *substantially* cheaper.

If Musk is planning to do these tunnels as for-profit ventures, he can't afford to spend ten times the cost he needs to for the same people-moving capacity. If he's planning to get taxpayer subsidies, that's different, of course, but in that case *I* don't want to pay 10 times as much as I need to in taxes, either.

To be clear about this, although I really like train travel, I'm realistic: there basically shouldn't be any trains in Idaho or in West Texas, because there aren't enough people there. Where there should be trains is underneath LA and SF and NYC and so on -- and tunneling can be done far better and cheaper than it is being done now, but nonsense about car tunnels and tiny vehicles is a distraction.

You clearly haven't analyzed this tunnel thing very much. Can't build railroads in many places. To alleviate traffic, must go up or down. Not 2D, but 3D. Go watch some videos of Elon talking about this.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Question for the old timers on "logistics hell".

A wise man once said (in November 2017), "There's no indication Tesla has in place an adequate number of trained personnel to handle the crush of transporting, delivering, and servicing all the new Model 3s.

A logistical nightmare is just as likely as trimming fat from the bone."

Who was that, and can we still benefit from his insights?

 

[neroden]

You just don't get it.

No, it's YOU who don't get it.

The reason there's huge congestion at current rail/subway lines is because there's one place for everybody to go.

So, same problem occurs at expressway entrance and exit ramps, or at tunnel entrance and exit ramps (or elevators), or at frickin' *road intersections*, dude. This isn't news to me.

Apparently it's news to you because you're not paying attention.

By the way, the problem is most efficiently solved with travelators / conveyor belts (but they have a low speed limit), and second-most-efficiently solved with trains. Now you know, so you can stop being ignorant.

Look, I'm not reading your stuff any more because everything you've written is didn't-do-your-research nonsense. Go do your homework.

 

[sunhelm]

That Article was definitely a giant POS.

And its going to be ruled completely void in 12-24 hours once Q3 deliveries are announced - but we all know thats not why the article was published.

Yup. The author is on twitter and I let him know how one sided his article was. Too bad there is no comment section in the NYT article.

 

[Drumheller]

Hey guys, do you think you could take the train discussion to a new thread, please?

 

[Thekiwi]

Question for the old timers on "logistics hell".

A wise man once said (in November 2017), "There's no indication Tesla has in place an adequate number of trained personnel to handle the crush of transporting, delivering, and servicing all the new Model 3s.

A logistical nightmare is just as likely as trimming fat from the bone."

Who was that, and can we still benefit from his insights?

Tesla almost certainly will report higher car deliveries than cars produced for the quarter just completed, meaning delivery capacity was higher than production capacity. The delivery problem is overstated.

 

[neroden]

You clearly haven't analyzed this tunnel thing very much. Can't build railroads in many places. To alleviate traffic, must go up or down. Not 2D, but 3D. Go watch some videos of Elon talking about this.

I've watched everything Elon said about this, and goddamn, the man is ignorant.

Almost as ignorant as he was of SEC rules. Seriously.

Musk is brilliant but brilliance only gets you so far -- sometimes you have to actually do your research, which he has done with electric cars and rockets but not finished doing with tunnels or congestion.

I guess he hasn't had a week free to actually learn the obvious stuff he's ignoring -- what with Tesla having so much drama -- but geez, I hope he gets the time to do so.

 

[dqd88]

Question for the old timers on "logistics hell".

A wise man once said (in November 2017), "There's no indication Tesla has in place an adequate number of trained personnel to handle the crush of transporting, delivering, and servicing all the new Model 3s.

A logistical nightmare is just as likely as trimming fat from the bone."

Who was that, and can we still benefit from his insights?

that's was from good ole FUDster Mcgee. Tesla is on rocket ship that's already left ground. In 10 years Tesla, in it's mercy, will save some of the ICE skeletons from the graveyard. 90% of ICE will go BK by then.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Tesla almost certainly will report higher car deliveries than cars produced for the quarter just completed, meaning delivery capacity was higher than production capacity. The delivery problem is overstated.

OK, I was wondering why Musk said they were in "delivery logistics hell", but you think that was only a "contingent only on a shareholder vote" kind of comment?

 

[neroden]

Tesla almost certainly will report higher car deliveries than cars produced for the quarter just completed, meaning delivery capacity was higher than production capacity. The delivery problem is overstated.

Disagree, actually. I think they'll end up with a higher hangover of produced/undelivered cars than they did from Q2 to Q3 simply because of the massive scale of the ramp-up... even as it represents *fewer days of delivery* it will be *more cars*.

 

[neroden]

You should think more of it as elevators in a skyscraper. Elevators that go sideways. They are parallel and fast, and hold only a few people. They are also route optimized such that you don't have separate people going to the top floors from people going to the middle floors, etc. The speed of each elevator also varies with destination. Such a system in a building could handle 25,000 people getting to work, in and out of lunch, and back home everyday, without deep queueing.

I made the mistake of reading this.

Did you ever study the elevator system design problem for very tall buildings? It's a real field of study!

It's hard! The solutions are not the ones you think they are, and large elevators are a big part of it! Also fixed routes (elevators which skip entire ranges of floors) which mean that people have to change elevators to get to their destination (no door-to-door service)!

 

[dqd88]

I've watched everything Elon said about this, and goddamn, the man is ignorant.

Almost as ignorant as he was of SEC rules. Seriously.

Musk is brilliant but brilliance only gets you so far -- sometimes you have to actually do your research, which he has done with electric cars and rockets but not finished doing with tunnels or congestion.

I guess he hasn't had a week free to actually learn the obvious stuff he's ignoring -- what with Tesla having so much drama -- but geez, I hope he gets the time to do so.

what's he wrong about?

 

[neroden]

Hey guys, do you think you could take the train discussion to a new thread, please?

Sorry. My fault for casually mentioning an area where Musk isn't doing his homework -- it brought out the "Musk can do no wrong" brigade.

 

[sundaymorning]

Ha. LOL indeed.
I mentioned on here a week ago that the Bellevue, WA service center was preparing to ramp up from 30 deliveries to 100 deliveries a day for the final week of the quarter. They only have space for maybe 20 or 30 cars at the service center. So it's no surprise they needed someplace to stage the cars.

The "100 cars at a mall in Bellevue, WA" that the stupid NYT article references is a day's worth of cars to be delivered.

Also, I'm sure they're taking in a bunch of trade-ins. Those need to get staged someplace as well.

While John Broder zones in on the 40 parked cars he also ignores the 52k delivered M3s. Yup, that’s NYTimes due diligence alright. Not a spec of bias reporting, just an honest journalist reporting “facts”.

What’s up with New Yorkers these days? Is me or are they getting dirtier by the day? It’s probably all the pollution they’re breathing in due to the lack of trees in that state that makes everyone a bit dirtier. Broder, NYT, SEC, they’re all in New York... those guys need to leave the state and enjoy the fresh air a bit more.

 

[Thekiwi]

Disagree, actually. I think they'll end up with a higher hangover of produced/undelivered cars than they did from Q2 to Q3 simply because of the massive scale of the ramp-up... even as it represents *fewer days of delivery* it will be *more cars*.

So you think Managemnt guidance in early August was wrong? They said deliveries will probably be higher than production.

 

[neroden]

What’s up with New Yorkers these days? Is me or are they getting dirtier by the day? It’s probably all the pollution they’re breathing in due to the lack of trees in that state that makes everyone a bit dirtier.

Excuse me, New York State probably has more substantially more trees than California, which is mostly desert.

New York City is only a tiny part of our state, geographically speaking.

Broder, NYT, SEC, they’re all in New York... those guys need to leave the state and enjoy the fresh air a bit more.

Or they could just go upstate.

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, I was wondering why Musk said they were in "delivery logistics hell", but you think that was only a "contingent only on a shareholder vote" kind of comment?

He also said the number of cars produced and delivered would be doubled quarter over quarter. Deliveries will likely still be higher than production and it would still feel like “logistics hell”