Certainly. If you think about what percentage of media is basically writing for money -- either for clicks, or ads, or to promote the business interests of their owner -- and you'll see exactly how uncommon it is to find "anyone who isn't a sellout" in for-profit media. Very few media operations are owned by independent not-for-profits with a history of true not-for-profit behavior (I can actually only think of three).
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Certainly. If you think about what percentage of media is basically writing for money -- either for clicks, or ads, or to promote the business interests of their owner -- and you'll see exactly how uncommon it is to find "anyone who isn't a sellout" in for-profit media. Very few media operations are owned by independent not-for-profits with a history of true not-for-profit behavior (I can actually only think of three).
@Smokey4141 are you aware of the 35 million in stock Elon purchased in the last few months at $300 ($10 MM) and $343(25MM)???
What are you smoking? Coal?
When I find a large group of people doing incredibly destructive things which even destroy their own lives, I generally assume their motives are good but that they're extremely ignorant or stupid. Oddly, if I tell them this, it *doesn't* make them feel better.
Even though ignorance is curable and stupidity is not their fault (it's lead poisoning, probably). Most people *prefer* to be considered evil than to recognize their own ignorance or stupidity. (There are exceptions.) Ah well, human psychology is complicated...I -- like Musk -- am not very good at sugar-coating my "you are wrong and here's why" message to the ignorant and the stupid. Others are much better at it.
Yes, it is. Everyone wants Tesla's business. Despite Tesla stating outright that they're not going to refi, banks would love to get Tesla to refi with them, because, uh, *THEY'RE BANKS*, that's how they make their money. Don't you remember getting unsolicited refi offers on car loans and mortgages and credit cards?
cheshire cat
Member
. I should be gratefull if you could expand/clarify this so as to better understand the rest of your "facts" / hypothesis
Yeah, Tesla got an incredibly good deal. At the time, people were asking, "how on earth did they get such a low interest rate on the 2025 bonds"? It was a record low for the high-yield bond market, and they felt so bad about it (they knew the initial bondholders were getting a poor deal) that they actually raised the yield a bit over the initial bids. It's normalized to normal high-yield bond rates now, but Tesla issued during the sweet spot. Financial coup for Tesla.
This Planned Solar Farm in Saudi Arabia Would Be 100 Times Bigger Than Any in the World
(dated April 03 2018)
My 2c. There is a good chance TSLA will be involved in someway.
Also, could Tesla be stacking up Solar, battery resources for this project?, because recent updates on these fronts have been very miniscule. ..
(dated April 03 2018)
My 2c. There is a good chance TSLA will be involved in someway.
Also, could Tesla be stacking up Solar, battery resources for this project?, because recent updates on these fronts have been very miniscule. ..
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cheshire cat
Member
Nah, just watched too many reruns of Convoy, That a big ten four good buddy.
Good idea. I'll just say this. What Wahlmann admitted to when he was sued for securities fraud back in the past was: saying the opposite thing to the public from what he was recommending internally in his firm. (In other words, don't be surprised if Wahlmann's *actually* accumulating Tesla stock, and is just talking it down so he can buy it cheap. That's pretty similar to what he got nailed for before in another stock.)
Smokey4141
Banned
Good post...
The one thing to point out though is, how many corporate bonds are currently yielding over 8+%?
Make a list, and ask yourself, "Which of these names would I buy the common stock?"
I bet the answer is.....and should be....."None"....
Some of course, will say, "On that list, I'd invest in Tesla!"....
But that's probably because they already have... ;-)
Regardless, good post, and people should definitely follow the bond price... Thanks...
@DaveT: Nice piece. I'm going to ask that you elaborate on the possibilties for Tesla the company.
Because I don't actually care what happens to Elon. I mean, sure, I wish him the best personally, but it's not like he's my ex-husband or anything personal. I care about Tesla, not about Elon.
I think Tesla would be fine without Elon in active management. Elon got it through its crucial period, and Tesla's current crises (communications, and logistics) aren't actually within Elon's areas of expertise. His areas of expertise (cost engineering, switching corporate directions quickly) remain useful, but not necessary.
I've been following Tesla since the days when Musk was a non-management investor. It was achieving great things -- but then the company hit a key problem where Eberhard wouldn't do the necessary thing, and Musk's precise areas of expertise were right to fix that. They also couldn't find anyone else suitable to be CEO, and they tried. His precise areas of expertise were also important at several other key points in Tesla's history.
But now, I think Jerome Guillen would be a fine CEO -- at least as suitable than Musk for the current problems, and possibly better -- and he's already President of Automotive (thank goodness). And it doesn't matter much who's chairman of the Board.
So I just don't care about Musk's personal fate. Not to sound harsh. What's the future for Tesla?
Sunbird, yeah, I usually look at bond quotes in terms of yield (easy enough to check the T-bill rate). (Convertibles are different of course.)
Smokey4141
Banned
Quite aware.... And despite his best efforts to get the stock price above $360 back in August (to be able to pay off the upcoming conv. bond payment in stock rather than cash), it failed....
And many people - both longs and shorts - were damaged on that attempt...
You might want to think about that, every time you read a post of somebody who bought at $360+, based on Elon's tweet of Funding Secured - $420 share... And now they're hurting...
And again, many will "disagree" with this post..... "FUD" or whatever... But it happened....
And just like Elon, anyone that bought on that effort of stock manipulation, is now upside down on those share purchases..
As I said, if he can escape with a couple of billion, he'll be ahead of the game...
And now that his August attempt to juice the stock failed, he knows it too, now..
Tesla doesn't need the SP to be above 360, and Musk has made no attempt to ensure it. They'll settle the debt in cash.
Donn, on the projections:
2028-2030 is roughly correct for new car sales becoming nearly-all-EV. (Maybe an extra couple of years for the slowdown at the end of the adoption curve.) It takes an extra 10-15 years for the establshed base to be replaced.
For the grid to be all-solar is roughly 2028, maybe a bit later (for the same slowdown at the end of the adoption curve.) In reality 100%-renewable will be a bit earlier because wind and hydro exist too.
The "halfway point" of 50% adoption is about two years earlier than the nearly-full-adoption date, in both cases, and that's when the danger of overproduction and "maybe we shoudn't be hiring more people" starts to hit.
So the point when the Great Energy Transition is no longer preventing recessions is ~2025-2030, as I said.
I can't do projections for grid battery installs, but it seems that fewer are needed than many people think. To get a serious projection of what's needed, I'd need to have an understanding of nighttime electrical demand levels, which is tricky to get, as well as an understanding of what share wind and hydro will have in the future grid, which is also trickier than projecting the solar business, In any case, if there's a delay in that, it will only mean that some legacy natgas-burning fossil fuel operations remain in nighttime electricity production -- while it may delay getting to 100% renewables, it will have no meaningful effect on the larger economic projections.
That's known as ignorance. Common beliefs used to include "the world is flat", and I probably shouldn't list other common false beliefs for fear of offending religious sensibilities. "Common belief" is not an argument. The understanding of those who are experts in the field is that the grid can adapt to 100% solar/wind/hydro just fine -- though a few batteries should be installed.
Calculations for South Australia indicate that they need about two more the size of the Big Battery -- maybe less -- for permanent grid stability and price stability. Not clear how much more they need for overnight power with 100% renewables, but they have high wind vs. solar so probably not much.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Apple’s SuperBowl Ad “1984” was more effective than if Apple had wasted seed corn on ads for the Lisa. Tesla is between the Lisa and the Mac in their product roadmap, if you’ll allow the gross oversimplification. You have to be ready to mass deliver before you explode mass demand. Sell in mass and eventually you can afford Jeff Goldblum.
But maybe it will be time to think about that, soon.
Up to now, Tesla meant S - 3 - X
Half a million humans on Earth enjoy having S - 3 - X
March 15, every1 on Earth will finally see ...Y.
Not an ad advice. Half a million humans on Earth enjoy having S - 3 - X
March 15, every1 on Earth will finally see ...Y.
Edit: Chiat and Day at Cupertino.
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The Energy GF1 cell line(s) were converted to making Model 3 cells. The new equipment should remove that bottleneck.
Ummm, I bought around 370 last year (or was it 2016?) And bumped up holdings at 350-370 this year. Neither hurting nor mad at Elon.
Smokey4141
Banned
Google "elon musk's margin call levels"
It'll take some reading on your part, but I believe the levels to start at $232....
Other call levels start lower from there...
I've seen it in chart format as well, but I did not save that... Now that we're in the mid-200's, I regret that now... :-/
If I find it, I'll post it...
Donn -- Tesla appear to have actually replaced the logistics team. There's a "delivery scheduler" center with a hotline which seems to have been established over the last week, maybe week-and-a-half, and certainly didn't exist earlier. One comment from someone there to an order-holder indicated that they'd had a serious computer system problem and were working with a new computer system. They seem to be doing a much better job than the previous group who was messing up logistics something awful, though they've only had about a week to start cleaning up the mess.
Yeah, there will be some CapEx and OpEx for that new computer system and replacement of staff. It's OK.
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