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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'd like to know more information about that;
Look up what Saudi Arabia has been doing in Mecca. Due to the doctrinaire nature of the extremist Wahhabi clerics, they are demolishing ancient buildings associated with the Prophet Muhammed and his life and times -- bulldozing them and destroying everything buried under them to put up modern hotels and apartment blocks.

Most of the archaeology and history of Mecca and Medina has been destroyed by the KSA government. It's already gone: they've spent a decade bulldozing it. It's a crime against world heritage.

This is considered horrific by the rest of the Muslim world, as well as by scientific archaeologists. These sites have a wealth of history about the time when Islam was founded and KSA is bulldozing them and pouring concrete over them.

You believe an astounding number of provably false things -- you really are delusional -- so I don't expect you to believe this either.

But since it's not widely known, I figured the rest of the forum might be interested. There are articles about this.



Destruction of early Islamic heritage sites in Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia
Sign the Petition (2012)
Medina: Saudis take a bulldozer to Islam's history (2012)
The photos Saudi Arabia doesn't want seen – and proof Islam's holiest relics are being demolished (2013)
Saudi Arabia Bulldozes Over Its Heritage (2014)
Opinion | The Destruction of Mecca (2014)
Over 90% of historical Islamic sites in Mecca and Medina are destroyed by Saudi regime (2015)
The destruction of Mecca (2017)
 
I spent years resisting the urge to set some people on ignore, but in the last few days some really foul and unpleasant characters have crawled out of the drains to post utter garbage on this thread, and a few of the regulars have just become too much. So here's my current ignore list - makes for some odd responses, but I can only recommend it to others:

upload_2018-10-7_15-57-22.png
 
Tesla will have about 2 billion more in revenue from Model 3 sales alone from last quarter, along with better S and X sales. Based on this and @luvb2b ’s analysis, I am trying to figure out how this won’t be an amazing quarter without much improved cash flow, but I just can’t get there. Help me bears, what am I missing?

You’d have to use what I consider an insanely low gross margin on model 3 for the math to not work out. I find that incredibly unlikely. We already know Q2 had slightly positive gross margin on a much smaller economy of scale.

As far as stock price movements go, who knows, but our most recent comparable data point will be what happened after Q2 earnings, which in my opinion wasn’t even justified to send TSLA higher like it did. But if this quarter is going to be slightly profitable like I believe it will, one would think it would have to have a similar reaction as Q2, but magnified.

This week may be another strange week with both people flipping out about the bonds, yet also some potential mysterious deal in Saudi Arabia. I’ll have to still wait until I see negative sentiment start to bottom out. That could happen tomorrow for all I know, but I do want to be back in heavily before earnings.

Anyone have a reasonable summary of what may be going on in Saudi’s Arabia exactly and what the likelihood / timing of it is?
 
I spent years resisting the urge to set some people on ignore, but in the last few days some really foul and unpleasant characters have crawled out of the drains to post utter garbage on this thread, and a few of the regulars have just become too much. So here's my current ignore list - makes for some odd responses, but I can only recommend it to others:

View attachment 341610

Should get auto-banned and posts removed retroactively if a user reaches some threshold of ignores+disagrees.
 
CNBC is insane with their analysis of Tesla. It's really amazing. As a right wing person I don't understand why the liberal media attacks Tesla. It's so counter their supposed green goal. Ah but I digress. I just want Tesla to build cars at a profit lol.
Business media, like CNBC, has never been liberal. There's "mainstream capitalist" (MSNBC / CNBC, Bloomberg, Financial Times), there's "right-wing doctrinaire liars" (Fox News, WSJ), there's "anything for a buck" (Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool), but you won't find liberal business media.
 
Because you guys invented a boogeyman, which you still believe in even after many obvious events in which they failed to be anything near liberal.
In fact, the only "liberal" media I can actually think of is Pacifica Radio (which has nearly collapsed), various obscure local papers like The Stranger in Seattle, and *maybe* The Guardian in the UK.
 

An example, he claims, is cobalt. “When everybody wants to have cobalt, the prices of cobalt will not go down, they will go up,” Frölich predicts. Nevertheless, he says BMW is working to secure low prices for cobalt out until 2030. “We are the only ones who are doing that,” Frölich claims.

Meanwhile.... Tesla is eliminating Cobalt altogether...

Once again:
puck.JPG
 
I have worked MY spreadsheets. My concern is some investors are looking at the Q3 ramp numbers and forgetting these were a result of
1) Hold overs from Q2 to prevent breaking 200K in the U.S. in June.
2) Largely people with reservations for over 2 years.

As far as the U.S. is concerned, Troy's spreadsheet is pretty ugly. Look at the number of new configurations starting in September. Even if this is just 2% of the actual numbers, the rapid decline is worrisome. I also truly expected to see more in-transit units at the end of Q3 then there were at the end of Q2. Instead, the number dropped by over 3,000 units.

Opening up Europe will release the pent-up second wave of reservations. But those deliveries will take much longer to hit revenues. Once those orders are filled in about 6 months what will be left for Model 3? SR deliveries at lower margins? Even if Q3 and Q4 prove profitable I do not see the profits being as high as the last quarterly profit in 3Q16. China will be a huge drag on revenues until GF3 is online or the tariffs are reduced.

Exactly... I've tried to say something similar, but you said it MUCH, MUCH better than I did...
No-one here seems to care, or be concerned though, so at this point, that's on them...
I applaud you, Sir... Well done..
 
Virtually all tax comes from the rich.
Based on the principle "you can't get blood out of a stone", you can't get money from people who don't have any.
Trump isn't going to hike taxes by 50% on his mates. The only way the US comes closer to a balanced budget is political change.

However it seems that US deficits haven't historically mattered much to the market while the USD is the global reserve currency anyway.
It won't matter as long as the US can print money and still have people accept it. (I subscribe to the MMT analysis of this.) IMO, the situation under which the US cannot print money is one in which the government is essentially considered illegitimate.

Trump is actually courting this. Being in power after losing the popular vote was a bad start. He's made it worse by his repeated frauds in his business life, by his general irresponsibility and incompetence in office, by pushing a lying, angry drunkard onto the Supreme Court, etc. This sort of governmental untrustworthiness and instability is what leads to currency revulsion, hyperinflation, and the inability of the government to print money. It won't happen quickly, but having had a stolen Presidential election in 2000, a war based on lies following that, and so on, the government's legitimacy is pretty weak, and that's dangerous for people's trust in the currency. It is something I worry about.

This belongs in the macroeconomics thread, though.
 
It's surprising, to me at least, that there are quite a number of people on this board who want to reign in Elon, even remove him from the company and even if short of that are publicly attacking him. I'm not talking about the shorts, or the care bears here - that's always been their master plan. Removing Elon is the only sure way to completely destroy Tesla.

One could say that Friday's drop in TSLA was caused by the many disparaging posts from pro-Tesla people on this board (and elsewhere), and not by anything Elon tweeted. Maybe not, but this obvious loss of support from those who were normally supportive could be signaling to the market the beginning of the end. There is no way to actually know what moves the stock but it certainly is possible. So now is your chance to prove you aren't a bunch of hypocrites: stop disparaging Elon on the internet; get an independent "nanny" to approve anything that you want to put online, and go take a 6 week vacation from all things Tesla.
 
I spent years resisting the urge to set some people on ignore, but in the last few days some really foul and unpleasant characters have crawled out of the drains to post utter garbage on this thread, and a few of the regulars have just become too much. So here's my current ignore list - makes for some odd responses, but I can only recommend it to others:

View attachment 341610
Keeping adding ...
You got a long way to go ;)
 
What is more important american legal system found an equivalent of "confession" mechanism in Stalin Russia. The perjury. By asking 100s of irrelevant to the core story questions and collecting answers you just have to sit patiently and wait until your "client" will say something wrong. Ones. Easy-peazy.
Hence "don't talk to police"

A number of major law professors have essays and lectures on YouTube which say "NEVER talk to police". Basically, judges have made up a bunch of essentially bogus rules which allow police to lie and mischaracterize your statements and get away with you. Unless you have your own lawyer with you and generate a formal transcript, you can't defend yourself against police lies.

So never talk to police beyond the absolute bare minimum legally necessary. If you need to give the police information, make a formal deposition with a lawyer and hand it to them.
 
Mongo, most smart investors do not follow a "buy and hold forever" mentality and survive. Just like institutional investors they constantly revisit their investments to see if they still meet the criteria that caused them to be bought in the first place. Unforeseen and changing events can alter any investment's popularity.

Since the Q1 CC when Musk scoffed at questions and turned to You-Tube, Musk has been increasingly irrational, emotional, and at times downright stupid and the volatility in the share price has increased dramatically. Whether caused by physical issues or mental stress is unclear. But something has seriously been altered in this man. While there is no doubt he is a visionary and long-term strategist for mankind's survival, whether he is fit to continue as CEO and a BoD member is becoming a real question.

I keep asking myself if he is trying to get the BoD to fire him so that he does not have to resign. If so, what is up his sleeve? I equate trying to follow this man to playing chess with a Grandmaster. How many moves ahead is Musk right now? Is this some elaborate exit strategy? Time will tell. But in the meantime, I would limit how many TSLA eggs you put in your investment basket.

BB77, I have no doubt this response will get laughed at to no end, but I think you're on to something here...
Hear me out...
Elon's ~trying~ to push the stock price down... He wants to start hitting his margin calls...
Better to get out with a few billion, rather than nothing if a BK happens...
My understanding is that his margin calls start in the low $200's, and work down to lower levels from there, so we're almost starting that process..
And "he" doesn't have to sell his shares, and he can play the victim card...
"Those nasty brokerages sold me out! We need to stay STRONG, Teslians!"...

As I said, for Elon, better to escape with a couple billion, in cash, than to lose it all waiting around for what's coming when the large shareholders realize the "growth story" is failing.... (and I'm betting they already have, judging by SP)
 
Business media, like CNBC, has never been liberal. There's "mainstream capitalist" (MSNBC / CNBC, Bloomberg, Financial Times), there's "right-wing doctrinaire liars" (Fox News, WSJ), there's "anything for a buck" (Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool), but you won't find liberal business media.
Nicely encapsulated Sir:)
 
BB77, I have no doubt this response will get laughed at to no end, but I think you're on to something here...
Hear me out...
Elon's ~trying~ to push the stock price down... He wants to start hitting his margin calls...
Better to get out with a few billion, rather than nothing if a BK happens...
My understanding is that his margin calls start in the low $200's, and work down to lower levels from there, so we're almost starting that process..
And "he" doesn't have to sell his shares, and he can play the victim card...
"Those nasty brokerages sold me out! We need to stay STRONG, Teslians!"...

As I said, for Elon, better to escape with a couple billion, in cash, than to lose it all waiting around for what's coming when the large shareholders realize the "growth story" is failing.... (and I'm betting they already have, judging by SP)

Lookie what we have here. Another person to sell my tinfoil hats to!
 
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