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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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CR actually rated the Tesla Auto Pilot as better than Cadillac's for performance and ease of use (ranked 1st in fact). However they put more weighting on safety than other factors, and only Cadillac has a system for monitoring driver alertness and awareness by using the internal camera. I think it's almost inevitable that Tesla will do the same thing someday, and we'll probably be happy about that.

The value of a system is relative to whether you actually use it. The more annoying you make it, the less likely customers are to use it, so you lose out on any safety benefits of using it. Overly aggressive eye tracking is an annoyance, while non-aggressive tracking... what's the advantage of that over wheel torque?

IMHO, any reasonable autonomy system evaluation should be simply the formulae:

Satisfaction Score = O
Safety Score = P * S

... where O is surveyed user satisfaction, P is the percentage of time a user is likely to have it engaged, and S is how much safer they're likely to be while having it engaged (can be negative). Using any other formula to evaluate autonomy systems seems nonsensical to me. You could try to come up with formulae to estimate P and S, but IMHO the best way is just to collect real-world data on both (the best data on S would have to come from the manufacturer, although you could approximate it independently by looking at how frequently the driver felt the need to take over from the system, plus how frequently the system disengaged on its own, with each multiplied by a risk factor for measured driver inattentiveness at the moment the user took control)
 
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Are the shorts keeping down $TSLA now? Weird day, we started stronger than the market and now sitting at 255, doesn't feel right to me

Looks like some 9/30 institutional unloading in the 13Fs......
BMO appears to have sold 98% or ~3.2MM shares among others.

EDIT:

Capturev.PNG
 
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The value of a system is relative to whether you actually use it. The more annoying you make it, the less likely customers are to use it, so you lose out on any safety benefits of using it. Overly aggressive eye tracking is an annoyance, while non-aggressive tracking... what's the advantage of that over wheel torque?

Well you could fall asleep with your arm resting in between the steering wheel and left or right stem - or be perfectly awake with your hand there, but looking in the back seat or something else. I'm not defending it, I'm just saying you can rationalize it either way based upon whatever you wish, including your biases either for or against one manufacturer.

You can put a lot of effort into arguing about the glaceing on the cherry on the icing on the cake... it's really not that important.
 
Thanks. This made me think about something. The news media are not actually trapped! The car companies can't stop advertising even if the media turned against them, because the first one to reduce ad spend would tank in comparison to its rivals. The media could actually write the truth, support the environment, do good for the country (had to throw that in) and it wouldn't hurt them. Well, until the traditional car companies go bankwupt, but that will happen anyway.

Media as a whole yeah, but car companies can more advertising to the media groups that are less favorable to the competitors.
Akin to no credit cards requiring PIN along with chip since the first to use it may lose business due to people using the non-PIN required cards instead for convenience. Or businesses going smoke free...
 
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A bit off-topic for market action, so apologies during trading hours, but there's a "gentleman" by the name of Eric Garland Who has 179K followers on Twitter. He bills himself as a strategic intelligence analyst for governments and corporations. Today he is all but accusing Elon of money laundering and pushing the narrative that because Elon is stepping down as Chairman there is something nefarious going on. This is not the first time I have seen tweets from Mr. Garland disparaging Elon without proof. Does this man have any connections to the Market? Again, apologies for non-market related but thought it was important and rumors can and do drive share price.
edit: he did not insinuate drug use, but his followers do.
 
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View attachment 344045[/QUOTE]
Recent 13F action......cmon in fellas.


View attachment 344045

Looks like some 9/30 institutional unloading in the 13Fs......
BMO appears to have sold 98% or ~3.2MM shares among others.

EDIT:

View attachment 344059

Thanks for these, is there a summarized total for 9/30 to show total institutional shares held compared to 6/30?

Also, where do you obtain this info, I tried googling my way to them and regretted it. Thanks in advance
 
FWIW, Elon tweeted, then deleted, something about a Tinker’s debt last night. Here’s some info about this (I’m guessing it might be relevant to the tweet): Tinker

Here’s the poem from the link:

A tinker’s debt is always paid:
Once for any simple trade.
Twice for freely-given aid.
Thrice for any insult made.

I think Elon was simply being whimsical again.

Tinker
"The Tinkers may have a magic of their own, being able to predict what may aid a person on the future, as they usually offer items that will be useful in the future, or at least they do so in Kvothe's adventures, always offering things Kvothe either ends up using later or regretting not have bought/trade because he needed/could use them later"

Interpretations found on reddit (Question about the Tinker poem in NOTW • r/KingkillerChronicle):

td941· 1 year ago
A Tinker's debt is always paid: - Tinkers will pay what they owe you:
Once for any simple trade: if you trade with them, they give you what they said they would, i.e. they don't cheat you.
Twice for freely given aid: if you help a tinker, then the tinker will give you a favour back, that is probably worth more than the value of the help you gave them.
Thrice for any insult made: if you're rude to a tinker, then expect some badass payback from the tinkers' guild :)

Loftien· 1 year ago It means that that tinkers deals are always fair, help given freerly to tinkers are always paid in full by him but any insult made will be meet with come back three times more severe.


Looking forward to the poem to unfold
:)
 
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A bit off-topic for market action, so apologies during trading hours, but there's a "gentleman" by the name of Eric Garland Who has 179K followers on Twitter. He bills himself as a strategic intelligence analyst for governments and corporations. Today he is all but accusing Elon of money laundering and pushing the narrative that because Elon is stepping down as Chairman there is something nefarious going on.

I checked his Twitter feed and don't see it.
 
Thanks for these, is there a summarized total for 9/30 to show total institutional shares held compared to 6/30? Also, where do you obtain this info, I tried googling my way to them and regretted it. Thanks in advance[/QUOTE]



The filings are just beginning to be picked up. You could go to Edgars and search for 13Fs by each investor/fund and not always aggregated. I rely on capIQ to aggregate them.
 
“Satellites with phased array antennas are sort of the communications jacks of all trades, capable of offering high-bandwidth connectivity to stationary user terminals, large ground stations, and moving vehicles simultaneously from with the same antenna array.”

SpaceX board member says Starlink prototype satellites "are working wonderfully"

Does anyone have an estimate for Spacex internet services value add to vehicle, storage, and solar products?

As a benefit of Spacex relationship with Tesla, it appears to me not many have really been able to value effectively this internet service to Tesla motors and energy.

Any suggestions for insight?
 
Sounds like Autopilot v9 might be a huge breakthrough.

I didn’t follow a lot of this post by @jimmy_d , but it seems like Tesla has pulled off a technological coup with camera agnostic processing.

Neural Networks

I think it was Elon that mentioned v9 would be sensor agnostic on the last conference call. Good to see confirmation. Also show how analysts are out of their depth. This seems to be a major development and i dont recall any discussion. Dont think TMC discussed it here either (not that we had much time before the tweet).
 
“Satellites with phased array antennas are sort of the communications jacks of all trades, capable of offering high-bandwidth connectivity to stationary user terminals, large ground stations, and moving vehicles simultaneously from with the same antenna array.”

SpaceX board member says Starlink prototype satellites "are working wonderfully"

Does anyone have an estimate for Spacex internet services value add to vehicle, storage, and solar products?

As a benefit of Spacex relationship with Tesla, it appears to me not many have really been able to value effectively this internet service to Tesla motors and energy.

Any suggestions for insight?

Musk has downplayed Starlink's applicability to Tesla vehicles. Sounds like he doesn't like the idea of adding a pizza box-sized antenna in the cars (also, not sure what their power requirements are, but surely far more than GSM due to the far greater distances that signals need to propagate).
 
Musk has downplayed Starlink's applicability to Tesla vehicles. Sounds like he doesn't like the idea of adding a pizza box-sized antenna in the cars (also, not sure what their power requirements are, but surely far more than GSM due to the far greater distances that signals need to propagate).
I’m thinking internet service with solar+storage products— package deal.

The network could also improve local, regional, and national weather estimates as well.

As more neighborhoods become solar+storage, that network information can provide energy capacity information for aggregation services as well as market signals of energy value for sales between neighbors and regions that require it. A whole new way to buy and sell energy, essentially an evolved economy.

Some significant real-time applications that may extend Tesla market advantage
 
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