TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

Tesla should have fined Elon, as I stated many times. Instead of acknowledging my suggestion, you instead decided to "play to the crowds” with a straw man.

Have fun with the many likes and funnies you received but please don't waste my time if you won't move the conversation forward.

Your great, keep it up, the uproarious applause, the standing ovation, this is entertainment!

...

Okay, you want the conversation to move forward? Let go of your molehill and quite trying to build it up. You don't like Elon, I think we all get that by now. But, please, quite wasting everyone's time by re-hashing the same, tired suggestion. We know, we get it. We just don't agree.

If you can't move on, may I suggest counseling? Really, seriously, if you really want things to move forward you have to let it go and move on. I have. I'm just trying to impart some advice. I really don't want to resurrect anything, but there as an, ahem, disagreement that moved a bit beyond the gentlemanly and the only way forward was for those involved to let it go.

 

[dqd88]

And who’s been screaming at the top of their lungs to stop the tweets? [Raises hand] Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place.

Another sign that the investor base has become way too conforming: the same investors who are making the independent chair deal to be a positive outcome today... voted against it in June!!

I think you are conflating two things - they are related yet separate:

1) Elon's tweet
2) The BOD's lack of tweet oversight

There were two lawsuits (and respective fines) from the SEC - one to EM for the tweet, and one to Tesla, Inc for the lack of oversight.

SEC fines Elon $20M for the tweet
SEC fines Tesla $20M for lack of oversight

At this point it's best to accept and put behind us... BUT Elon was gracious in, essentially, paying for Tesla's fine. Doing this via a fine from Tesla to EM would have been a bad look and more fodder for the FUDsters. So I think they did it the right way. Trying to make some lemonade out of the lemon so to speak.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have already stated that it is the principle, which many are missing by calculating the minute dilutive effect, and how this adds to the bigger picture problem I pointed out.

You have avoided addressing my point, again, and instead personally attacked me with generalizations. I see no use in responding to you. Good luck with your investment.

It was mostly not a personal attack, It's a genuine criticism of the analysis (the SA comment strayed into personal, and for that I apologise). This forum is read to gain a better understanding of the business and any material impacts to it. When small issues are amplified out of proportion then a comment criticising it is warranted.

The point is that there is no point. It's a technical eddy and nothing more.

 

[Unpilot]

It's literally equal to the amount that Tesla was fined!

If SEC had fined them $21,098,765 he'd have bought $21,098,765 in shares.
It's a public apology to Tesla for the harm he caused the company.

Sorry I just cant let this go. EM did not harm the company..the SEC did.... .IMHO MUCH greater harm by acting as an arm of the short army.

In case one has not been paying attention there has been a concentrated attack against EM and Tesla for quite awhile.

The idea that we should worry about short sellers is proof we are living in the matrix

And yes I am saying EM did no wrong. THE shorts and the SEC have done much much more harm

Point your righteous indignation their way.

 

[humbaba]

And who’s been screaming at the top of their lungs to stop the tweets? [Raises hand] Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place.

Another sign that the investor base has become way too conforming: the same investors who are making the independent chair deal to be a positive outcome today... voted against it in June!!

Yeah, I get it. And if you read in this thread you will see there are plenty of people who have said to quite imagining that all of Musks tweets are market movers. Heck, market movements are blamed on his making a tweet even when he hasn't been tweeting.

Yes, I get it: you feel that Musk is utterly irresponsible and shouldn't be tweeting. You, and the rest of the folks who share that opinion, are entitled to it. No argument from me there. But that doesn't make it right, true or correct.

(And it does get a little tiresome to read how his tweets have dropped the value of $TSLA when the only tweet in sight is about SpaceX successfully doing a land landing on the west coast. Now, I'm going to really let go. For real this time.)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

My favorite seeking alpha short now touting Jaguar I-Pace is destroying Tesla in Norway, and thus starts the inevitable demise of the company

The shorts over at SA but also Electrek are overjoyed by the fact that the I-Pace outsold Model S and X in Norway by 40% during the first half of this month. A big nail in the coffin.

What they don’t say is that Tesla deliveries always crater after the end of a quarter (because of the way Tesla geograpically spreads its deliveries) but also that there is two years of pent-up demand for the I-Pace in Norway which is finally being released with Jaguar sending almost all the cars Magna produced over the last few months - I heard 1000 cars - to Norway and The Netherlands.

I wonder what happens after all reservations have been honoured. Tesla managed to keep a steady stream of orders going in Norway for many years. Let’s see how the I-Pace holds up.

 

[Fact Checking]

Shanghai is near the Ryukyu Trench,

(Edit: my comment is mostly wrong, kept it for context.)

I don't think it is: the Ryukyu Trench is behind Japan when viewed from Shanghai - Japan is "shielding" Shanghai from most of the Ryukyu Trench waves reaching Shanghai directly.

The wave height of tsunamis also decreases with distance and Ryuku Trench is thousands of 800 kms away from Shanghai.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Honest question: how would this work? Tesla is a private business. How would they be able to enforce such a fine? It seems legally dicey to me to send out a bill for $20 million for no services rendered. The only way I'd think they could do this would be for Tesla to sue Elon.

Tesla is NOT a private business; that’s the whole point. Tesla is a publicly traded company owned by its shareholders, including Elon at about one-fifth of the company, but also tens of thousands of other investors, protected by rules and regulations.

I don’t know why fining Elon $20m would be anymore admittance of wrong-doing than settling. Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place, but who decided that it doesn’t? The man, against whom no one dare speak up. Elon should be the first one to see this as a risk to mission and seek to remediate. Elon/Tesla need strong, reasonable, diligent bulls to point to the real risks, instead of leaving the dissent to TSLAQ nonsense. Just my 2c.

 

[Fact Checking]

What’s interesting is if you overlay today’s TSLA chart with NFLX chart. They are the same.

I'd say mostly NASDAQ correlation with some profit taking after recent gains, for both stocks.

 

[Remus]

tt's not about the money (not to be funny) but about the WHY for the trivial announcement. Frankly, if I were paying for the companys' fine based on my rogue action, I'd probably just try and slip it into the federal filing and be done with it.

Musk buying 20M of stock is really trivial, the company accounting of that too is trivial. to me at least (and only apparently) it almost seems like they're trying to indicate some interest or confidence in the stock and therefore lets make some announcement.

the market seems to have chosen though as well as the mkt has pretty much totally recovered and TSLA is trading on the lows for the day.

I think you may have read too much into this. This is not an ordinary buy from open market, it's a direct issue from the company. And since it is Musk, in light of recent SEC incident they are being careful thus the 8k.

 

[Krugerrand]

There is a difference about being positive about things you can't change and about things that you (think) can change.
The way you expressed yourself initially sounds to me as avoiding "negative" opinions without considering the value in the discussion arising from them.

Well presented critique nurtures progress.

I said I keep (my) negativity to myself. There is no value to anyone in me sharing my negativity. Ask my spouse.

Critique not equal to negativity. Interestingly enough in my profession people pay me to critique - as in rip apart to minute detail kind of critiquing. I do not present those critiques in a negative manner but as simply as statements of fact followed by possible solutions.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla is NOT a private business; that’s the whole point. Tesla is a publicly traded company owned by its shareholders, including Elon at about one-fifth of the company, but also tens of thousands of other investors, protected by rules and regulations.

I don’t know why fining Elon $20m would be anymore admittance of wrong-doing than settling. Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place, but who decided that it doesn’t? The man, against whom no one dare speak up. Elon should be the first one to see this as a risk to mission and seek to remediate. Elon/Tesla need strong, reasonable, diligent bulls to point to the real risks, instead of leaving the dissent to TSLAQ nonsense. Just my 2c.

I think my point was missed: How would Tesla “fine” Elon? I don’t think(or at least haven’t heard of) companies can just send a “fine” to someone who never agreed to any terms requiring them to pay it, without any services rendered. Is such a thing even legally allowed? It seems like this would run into some strange tax situations, as someone is essentially donating money to a for-profit company.

 

[MXWing]

And who’s been screaming at the top of their lungs to stop the tweets? [Raises hand] Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place.

Another sign that the investor base has become way too conforming: the same investors who are making the independent chair deal to be a positive outcome today... voted against it in June!!

Honest question - did you get burned really bad on short term options or took on realized losses?

You don't seem like the same optimist anymore @ValueAnalyst ?

 

[davecolene0606]

The shorts over at SA but also Electrek are overjoyed by the fact that the I-Pace outsold Model S and X in Norway by 40% during the first half of this month. A big nail in the coffin.

What they don’t say is that Tesla deliveries always crater after the end of a quarter (because of the way Tesla geograpically spreads its deliveries) but also that there is two years of pent-up demand for the I-Pace in Norway which is finally being released with Jaguar sending almost all the cars Magna produced over the last few months - I heard 1000 cars - to Norway and The Netherlands.

I wonder what happens after all reservations have been honoured. Tesla managed to keep a steady stream of orders going in Norway for many years. Let’s see how the I-Pace holds up.

Additionally, what is always missed is that sales of EV’s are coming at the expense of ICE sales, not canabalizing other EV sales.

In any case let’s see what the end of quarter numbers (when another boat gets there) brings.

Fire Away!

 

[Fact Checking]

The wave heights from the Touhoku tsunami reached 4 meters in Chile and killed at least 12 people there. All the way across the Pacific. Colour me skeptical that a location immediately next to one of the most powerful subsea faulting zones in the world, built on low-lying reclaimed seafloor, is at little threat from tsunamis.

Here's the topographic map:

The Shanghai Gigafactory is in one of the highest elevation locations of the city, at least 4-5m high. So it should be protected from river flood and most historic tsunamis in the area: the risk of 2m+ waves reaching Shanghai appears to be lower than 10%, per century.

Also, most tsunamis would come from the east, from which direction the Gigafactory is more than 10 km inland. Even major tsunamis don't reach that far inland. From the south it's about 3 km inland, protected by a 5m+ elevated buffer zone.

There's also big islands (10 km wide) shielding the southern part of the city.

So I don't think the tsunami risk is significant, given the topology.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

All longs, that do not mess with options, puts, calls or shorting but just "invest" their money for Tesla to become bigger and bigger had surely an exciting time this year but didn't lose anything except nerves with all the fud.

This is fundamentally incorrect. Any longs who just sat there in TSLA while it has done nothing for 2 years has missed out on the opportunity cost of the broader market gaining in value. Certain stocks, and I've mentioned AMZN before, have quadrupled in value while TSLA has remained flat overall. So yes, longs in TSLA, even if all they have done is sat on their stake and done nothing, have lost a lot of money and it's high time for TSLA to start performing in line with expectations people have for a growing company.

The reality is that if you had simply sold your entire TSLA stake every time it got to 350 and bought it again when it dropped to 260 the last 2 years you would have made a lot of money instead of just sitting on it. I know a guy who did this and he told me to do it and I didn't believe it. Well he has enough money from doing this to buy a P3D with just the proceeds of doing this and I have made nothing from my TSLA stake the past 2 years.

So don't bulls**t about "not losing anything". In a bull market, not losing anything is actually losing a lot when you could be gaining a lot elsewhere.

 

[kbM3]

This is fundamentally incorrect. Any longs who just sat there in TSLA while it has done nothing for 2 years has missed out on the opportunity cost of the broader market gaining in value. Certain stocks, and I've mentioned AMZN before, have quadrupled in value while TSLA has remained flat overall. So yes, longs in TSLA, even if all they have done is sat on their stake and done nothing, have lost a lot of money and it's high time for TSLA to start performing in line with expectations people have for a growing company.

The reality is that if you had simply sold your entire TSLA stake every time it got to 350 and bought it again when it dropped to 260 the last 2 years you would have made a lot of money instead of just sitting on it. I know a guy who did this and he told me to do it and I didn't believe it. Well he has enough money from doing this to buy a P3D with just the proceeds of doing this and I have made nothing from my TSLA stake the past 2 years.

So don't bulls**t about "not losing anything". In a bull market, not losing anything is actually losing a lot when you could be gaining a lot elsewhere.

Can you name a single stock where of you were able to time travel, you could not have made out better?

 

[mongo]

This is fundamentally incorrect. Any longs who just sat there in TSLA while it has done nothing for 2 years has missed out on the opportunity cost of the broader market gaining in value. Certain stocks, and I've mentioned AMZN before, have quadrupled in value while TSLA has remained flat overall. So yes, longs in TSLA, even if all they have done is sat on their stake and done nothing, have lost a lot of money and it's high time for TSLA to start performing in line with expectations people have for a growing company.

The reality is that if you had simply sold your entire TSLA stake every time it got to 350 and bought it again when it dropped to 260 the last 2 years you would have made a lot of money instead of just sitting on it. I know a guy who did this and he told me to do it and I didn't believe it. Well he has enough money from doing this to buy a P3D with just the proceeds of doing this and I have made nothing from my TSLA stake the past 2 years.

So don't bulls**t about "not losing anything". In a bull market, not losing anything is actually losing a lot when you could be gaining a lot elsewhere.

And anyone who didn't buy NFLX yesterday and sell this morning lost on an 11% gain
And anyone who bought a Tesla instead of putting the money into a good stock pick lost money
And anyone who has a cell phone plan or cable is losing money

I had a chunk of shares of TSLA, I still have a chunk of shares of TSLA, in 5 years, I'll still have a chunk of shares of TSLA. I've lost nothing... (although I plan on converting some to cash down the road which will mean losing money)

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Can you name a single stock where of you were able to time travel, you could not have made out better?

You have got to be kidding me. Is this a joke?

NVDA
AMD
AAPL
MSFT
NFLX
FB

And that's just tech companies. The list of stocks where I could be a millionaire today right now if I had invested in them early on is probably at least half of the S&P 500. In fact just list out the top 100 in the S&P 500 and there you go. All of those would have yielded more than TSLA has if I had a time machine.

Hell, if I could time travel, I could travel back in time to 1902 and spend $5 on shares of Philip Morris & Co. You heard of them? I would be a billionaire if I went back to 1902 and did that and then came back to today and looked at my investment in what is today called Altria Group.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This is fundamentally incorrect. Any longs who just sat there in TSLA while it has done nothing for 2 years has missed out on the opportunity cost of the broader market gaining in value. Certain stocks, and I've mentioned AMZN before, have quadrupled in value while TSLA has remained flat overall. So yes, longs in TSLA, even if all they have done is sat on their stake and done nothing, have lost a lot of money and it's high time for TSLA to start performing in line with expectations people have for a growing company.

The reality is that if you had simply sold your entire TSLA stake every time it got to 350 and bought it again when it dropped to 260 the last 2 years you would have made a lot of money instead of just sitting on it. I know a guy who did this and he told me to do it and I didn't believe it. Well he has enough money from doing this to buy a P3D with just the proceeds of doing this and I have made nothing from my TSLA stake the past 2 years.

So don't bulls**t about "not losing anything". In a bull market, not losing anything is actually losing a lot when you could be gaining a lot elsewhere.

You could have invested in Ford. Or GE. But holding a position in Tesla saved you from that fate.