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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Is there a source for this assertion that vendors aren't getting paid and filing liens? Which vendors?

See above. It was a dispute involving a grand total of $8m over some small construction and remediation contracts. All were settled long ago.

jJ5yT7k.jpg
 
Well, the replacement will be included in the cost, which was already going to be higher for buying it after the fact. You're paying for the replacement either way (unless you buy a car after they're building them with the new hardware). They pull the same "costs more after delivery" sales tactic with EAP and it doesn't require any hardware upgrades.
It's not the same for EAP. If you only want EAP, the old chip works and they don't have to replace it and incur extra costs like with FSD, which will require replacement.
So, seems like they would rather not have those extra costs accumulating and will let you buy FSD later for $5k, which will be a mandatory +$2k, which will cover the cost of replacement.

Maybe then the prepaid $3k option will become available again.
 
how can so many investors be so stupid. Uber are talking about a 110 billion dollar float, and people are meanwhile selling the fastest growing most innovative car company on earth? People are nuts. Methinks Q3 earnings may surprise a lot of idiots who only ever read biz insider and seeking alpha.
I doubt they will "float" 110B. They might ultimately have a valuation up to maybe 100B (although I doubt it) but they won't have a float of anywhere near that. If that is actually going to happen, prepare to sell anything like TSLA/AAPL/GOOGL/SQ/insert high value growth stock here before that much money has to be moved out of other equities into this IPO
 
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Thought deeply during the past weeks about having a giant pile of cash available - larger house - 2 young kids and wife pregnant, and currently weighing upgrading my life or holding onto this giant chunk of my financial future.
You are getting a larger house and will soon have three young kids?

You need a giant pile of cash, period.

I mean geez. My cash balance is starting to dip below $100K and it's making me nervous -- and I don't have any kids and have a small house.

I've given this general advice before. Don't even *start* investing in things like stocks until you have gotten rid of all high-interest-rate debt, and have a lot of *savings* in an emergency fund. Not invested funds -- funds in cash.
 
Same here.
I used to follow a bunch of bears on twitter in the name of gathering information from "both sides". But it got too depressing. Too many of the bears are frankly sociopathic, and just flat out bizarre. I've tried to identify the ones who are more objective in their analysis; there seem to be very few.

I like to understand both sides. It's super interesting how there can be so much polarization given the same information. There are many reasons for it (as there are many "shades" of belief on Tesla from both sides)... but largely I've boiled it down to - the bears harp on the debt and "cash crunch", and don't do much sales projecting; whereas the bulls focus on the latter, see high growth (and view debt as an investment leading to the growth).

Your best bet for understanding "both sides" is to listen to the "gloomy longs" here like Schonelucht. (And sometimes myself!) Or to the swing traders. The actual *bears* are pretty worthless.
 
.Tesla Short Seller Warns of `Massive' Supply-Chain Disruption
Bloomberg) -- Short seller Fahmi Quadir, who’s betting against Tesla Inc., said the carmaker faces risks to its supply chain because some vendors haven’t been getting paid and others have been taking liens out against the company.

Blah Blah

Tesla didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Its shares fell as much as 1.8 percent to $259.11 as of 11:13 a.m. in New York. The stock is down about 17 percent this year.

concerted attack
 
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It's IMHO at least 18-24 months from a limited roll-out at best. SOME minor features, sure. Call my car from the garage and pick me up right in front of the symphony - YEARS out.

We paid for FSD with the car because it would save $1,000 (likely more savings when re-released next year) and because I just had to have it.

The promise of FSD for me was years out there with the laws being the key hurdle and not the technology as you mention. But at just 3.5% interest rate, the savings still made sense even if I waited 10 years, costing just $350 (in simple interest) or saving $750 (ya this car's a keeper). But the important thing was that we bought this car specifically for this reason because I am a technologist and it brings me both joy and comprehension. Not an older version without the FSD Hardware, it had to be newer than Oct 2016, and the M3 seemed to make more sense. I wish I could go to the Moon or Mars, but FSD is about as far into the future that I can realistically see within reach.

So IMO, we're right on target for FSD, I'm still confident in my decision, and looking forward to that new AI chip for free! When this car can drive itself, FSD will likely be in the $10,000 range.

To me, it was like buying some lake-front property for cheap then getting to camp on it for a while before the cabin was built.
 
I think a lot of the shorts have been talking about demand for a long time. But you have to be careful talking about it on this forum as there will be screams to ban you immediately.

Yeah, because it's the most idiotic argument ever.

Canadian EV Demand Is So Strong That Customers Wait Months On Lists

*Every single* electric car is developing waiting lists. People may have a first choice, but many will compromise and go for the car they can get. At worst, Tesla might have an issue with a bad product mix -- like they did when too many people wanted AWD rather than RWD!

Demand will become an issue around the time when EVs constitute 50% of the world market, at which point EV makers will finally actually be competing against each other. We've got a few years before that happens (FYI, should be roughly 2026)
 
Tesla PR/Communications leaves a lot to be desired and is a big part of sentiment being too negative about the company.

You will note that Tesla communications is actually the thing which I think is the biggest weak point of the company -- forget stock sentiment, it's bad for business!
 
I think I'll buy calls for after earnings towards close. (11/9? 11/16?)Any ideas for what strike price it should be? I'm thinking 275 or 280.

So, currently the Nov 310/330 call spread is looking very interesting. IF you are a believer and think they are going to "surprise" and have sold more, produced more and have more orders than expected. And don't forget cash flow.

Also, going out to Feb 2019 (could be VERY interesting again assuming expectations for a very good Q4 the 330 or 350$ callas are getting SILLY cheap. 350$ is selling for 8.25, at say 6$ that could be a nice trade. Again, I'd probably do a spread and buy a lower 310ish call and sell the 350$ against it.

Another nice looking option (pun intended) would be a calendar spread with a Feb 310 for 17$, and sell a MAR 350$ at 12. That's only 5$ for a 40$ spread. Again, MUST BE BULLISH.
 
Full self driving being removed from model 3 is the biggest change of all of these changes.

That’s a giant part of the thesis...
FWIW, it wasn't part of some of our investment theses. I'm on record as saying full self-driving won't happen for at *least* five years more, maybe decades -- it's just much harder than people think it is. I'm even on record as saying that Tesla will have to refund the FSD deposits. This limits the amount of money they'll have to refund, so that's good.
 
I wonder how climate change mitigation enthusiast Michael Bloomberg feels about his news website becoming a mouth piece for small time anti-environmental short sellers. Anyone have any connections to him?

Mike Bloomberg's Twitter is below. Feel free to let him know how you feel.

He does have a history of strongly supporting environmental causes, especially relating to climate change. Maybe it is time for him to take a look into the steady stream of garbage about Tesla being published in the publication that bears his name.

Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) | Twitter
 
FWIW, it wasn't part of some of our investment theses. I'm on record as saying full self-driving won't happen for at *least* five years more, maybe decades -- it's just much harder than people think it is. I'm even on record as saying that Tesla will have to refund the FSD deposits. This limits the amount of money they'll have to refund, so that's good.
Seconded

[edited to add: I somehow missed your refund part -- I've never said that. But for true autonomous driving, I absolutely agree that it is more difficult than most people here think. IMO it will roll out gradually with expanding capabilities.]
 
This is nuts. Price going down because of FSD and crap. It's high time Tesla fights this with lots of advertising dollars and TV ads. The more people know on TV and through advertising the better it will be - guaranteed.
The price action has nothing to do with the recent news. The nasdaq dived more than 1.4% and plenty of stocks turned red.

The general condition of the market is concerning. We are seeing typical behavior of late cycle bull market, such as rotation to healthcare, underperformance of the dow jones transportation average, outperformance of utilites and massive money outflow from $XLK (technology SPDR) and $XLY (consumer discretionary SPDR).
 
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