TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

I thought I heard EM saying the ModY will have falcon-wing doors.

god please no.

 

[tivoboy]

Ford and Daimler and even GM are making yearly lows

Different reasons for all.. domestic, it's a demand, finance and business model issue. The international firms (and FCAU included) it' a European emissions fallout and new emissions regulatory issue. Domestically, we're not going to have that problem as the current administration doesn't believe that vehicle emissions are a problem for city inhabitants or the environment.

 

[Unpilot]

In line with all the talk about FSD I am thinking about adding it to my car.
My line of thinking is even if it does not happen while I own the car it WILL happen and should help with resale value.
Now I am not thinking of selling and actually would love to keep the car forever.

I am going to retire is a little less than two years and would love nothing more than to have my car follow me and my RV down the road.

So just like Tesla stock I may place a bet on the FSD being there when I need it.

 

[tivoboy]

But at just 3.5% interest rate, the savings still made sense even if I waited 10 years, costing just $350 (in simple interest) or saving $750 (ya this car's a keeper). .

For me, it's not the cost of capital but more the opportunity cost of capital. I can more than double if not nearly triple that 1000$ in ten years and I'd rather just pay 1000$ more in the future for something real and available in 5-10 years, than risk having that capital doing nothing for me in the interim.

 

[electracity]

*Every single* electric car is developing waiting lists.

The leaf, bolt, and model 3 are readily available in the U.S.. I agree that model 3 demand is fine and will likely remain so for at least a couple of years. That doesn't mean that Tesla won't continue to pull modest demand levels to assure smooth demand across markets. The next move is obviously something like SR with PUP or MR with the vanilla interior. Tesla will "stir the pot" a couple of times next year to give potential buyers a little push.

Also, part of the reason Model 3 demand will remain good is Tesla's inability to meet projected production volume. In 2017 I predicted Tesla would make 250,000 total vehicles in 2018. I also predicted last year that Tesla will make a half million vehicles in 2019. That was pre-tent, and is now looking overly optimistic. I can't believe that a car company in the 21st century could fail at building a GA line.

 

[Joe F]

Is there a clip?

Probably not as it was just banter between co-hosts.

However, I tweeted the Tesla advocate a screenshot from the Tesla trip planner showing a route from the Nasdaq MarketSite where they broadcast from, to Washington, DC, something that was brought up in their banter. As if it was not possible to do in a Model 3. Please. It had one 5 minute charger stop...

 

[tivoboy]

Daily low, $254,22...

Geez, will I actually get into my mid-$240s cutoff for buying more shares?

magic eight ball says "possible"

 

[neroden]

I think it could be in the region of $200 - $300 million so maybe too much for the attorneys (although they are California attorneys........).

But that's just from 5 minutes looking at the filings so I could be off. Will take a closer look tomorrow.

It was stated at one point (on an earnings call?) that not very many people were actually buying the FSD package. I'm trying to remember the percentage they stated. It was 15% or less, I know that. This means the maximum exposure is something like $75 million, but probably significantly less. Some people paid $3000 rather than $5000 for the FSD reservation, and I do think 15% was an overestimate -- *and* the quote about how many people were buying it is out of date and I think far fewer people have been buying it as time goes on. And many of the people who bought it won't ask for a refund and will wait indefinitely. So a more plausible exposure level is probably under $40 million.

 

[traxila]

Think a lot of what is going on here is longs sitting on their hands. Everyone is a little bit tired of TSLA going down. They have seen screaming buys...only to watch the stock yoyo lower. At this point, everyone wants a super screaming buy! Of course, macros and shorts are contributing... a little bit of a buyer's strike here. As everyone knows, all eyes on 250...

 

[M3Rider]

Yeah, because it's the most idiotic argument ever.

Canadian EV Demand Is So Strong That Customers Wait Months On Lists

*Every single* electric car is developing waiting lists. People may have a first choice, but many will compromise and go for the car they can get. At worst, Tesla might have an issue with a bad product mix -- like they did when too many people wanted AWD rather than RWD!

Demand will become an issue around the time when EVs constitute 50% of the world market, at which point EV makers will finally actually be competing against each other. We've got a few years before that happens (FYI, should be roughly 2026)

Demand (in NA) may still be an issue if people simply don't know about Model 3. Considering we had 400k orders at some point and suppose, half was NA (200k), Tesla already delivered 100k of expensive LR+PUP trims; some of these were new customers w/o reservations. I also suspect that the prior LR demand from the NA line is taken care of or will be by the end of Oct.
Many instances of LR cars delivered in days.
So, MR will target those ~100k line waiters that held out for SR in Q4, that will be enough demand for Q4. I cannot speculate how many new orders/customers are coming in. So, Q1/Q2 will be secured w/ pre-existing demand from overseas, meanwhile I hope the awareness of the car will grow and new orders will start to come in at higher rates. I think this should work out nicely with Tesla having few extra quarters for penetration of the cars to take place and new demand catching up to the old one.

 

[Ratanpara]

Just bought 100 share 254.60, I say screw it what is short term downside 200 , If it happens I don’t care, Bloomberg article suppliers payment issues is just total BS, who has upper hand at this point Tesla or suppliers ?, suppliers are lining up to work for Tesla because growth is huge, some suppliers demand payment sooner, Tesla will hand them a check with warning we will find alternative to you.

 

[Unpilot]

It was stated at one point (on an earnings call?) that not very many people were actually buying the FSD package. I'm trying to remember the percentage they stated. It was 15% or less, I know that. This means the maximum exposure is something like $75 million, but probably significantly less. Some people paid $3000 rather than $5000 for the FSD reservation, and I do think 15% was an overestimate -- *and* the quote about how many people were buying it is out of date and I think far fewer people have been buying it as time goes on. And many of the people who bought it won't ask for a refund and will wait indefinitely. So a more plausible exposure level is probably under $40 million.

By the way...welcome back Neroden

 

[tivoboy]

Just bought 100 share 254.60, I say screw it what is short term downside 200 , If it happens I don’t care, Bloomberg article suppliers payment issues is just total BS, who has upper hand at this point Tesla or suppliers ?, suppliers are lining up to work for Tesla because growth is huge, some suppliers demand payment sooner, Tesla will hand them a check with warning we will find alternative to you.

When the supplier goes out of business, it's a problem for the OEM.

 

[neroden]

i usually assume that most companies (that includes Tesla) are not run by idiots.

You are going to lose your shirt investing if you keep making that assumption. I usually assume that most companies are run by idiots -- sometimes idiots savants, but still idiots -- and I've done very well.

This is not entirely a joke. Assuming competence by management is fatal for investing. Most of the best investing moves relate to spotting incompetence, in this case the incompetence of Tesla's would-be competitors.

 

[Unpilot]

When the supplier goes out of business, it's a problem for the OEM.

That depends on what supplier.

 

[EVNow]

Daily low, $254,22...

Geez, will I actually get into my mid-$240s cutoff for buying more shares?

Probably not today - the market is up.

I feel there may be some upward movement once earnings date is announced. Atleast I'm hoping so.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Special Circumstances...
Election and all, call for an advanced earnings call date without notice.
Catch the shorts napping, thinking they can short at $255 - the hide of them.
Go on Elon. You know you want to.

 

[bdy0627]

@JustinPulitzer
$ES_F has $2800 sellers. Need to clear them out before she can run. Anything below remains a bit iffy to my eye.

 

[neroden]

Nube comment. Seeking to learn...
The stock seems to go through a daily cycle where it gets hammered hard every 20 mins or so for the first two hours, then quietly bought up again in the afternoon. So unless there's a good news event, it finishes down. I've tried trading on the daily cycle, hoping to make them pay for their disregard for progress, but meagre winnings get eaten by commissions.

Oh. Yeah, of course they are. Traditionally, the way really big, really good day traders got out of this trap was to buy a seat on the stock exchange, and then trade as much as they liked without commissions.

Anybody out there beating the shorts on the daily downswing?

 

[neroden]

Consensus on the MR move? Seems like LR RWD was lagging in sales and this is a bridge to the SR car.

Consensus among those who pay attention is that Tesla's currently short on battery cells, while pack production and car production is going faster. (This is new. Something else was always the bottleneck before.) So they're making cars with fewer cells so they can keep the car production rate up.