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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Once again I would like to point out the mind blowing NHTSA results of the 3. Where Munro saw inexplicable structural choices and too heavy, too thick, too complex solutions, I see reasons for the 3 beating the cars Munro referenced.

I think (too lazy to google) he talked about the Bolt for instance and how some rear wheel well is just 1 pressed piece vs the 3's complex solution. Except if you check the side crash results the Model 3 has significantly less severe deformities and intrusion. E.g. the Bolt shrunk in width almost 2x as much as the 3, the Bolt's rear bumper moved 102 mm, the 3's was displaced by 1 mm, the height of the door cutout shrunk in Bolt by 69 mm, in the 3 it was 9 mm and so on.

I don't think we can make that link. We do know that the Tesla chassis/body has been heavily engineered compared to what Munro sees as normal (Munro stated it in his report and Tesla has not denied it), and we know that the 3 has excellent crash results (from NHTSA). But we don't know how much of a correlation there is between these two points. Could Tesla still receive the same safety ratings with a more simple and lighter design? I have no idea and am not an engineer. Other posts have said that Tesla fired the engineer responsible for the 3 chassis which also gives this statement some pause for thought.

Before becoming a globetrotting banker, I grew up on a farm in Australia and used to fabricate (to use the word loosely, it was more hillbilly engineering) many items that required fairly heavy load capacity (stock crates, feeders that would hold a few tonnes of grain, ramps, etc) and intuitively I would say that the more metal you put into something the stronger it gets. But I am sure someone who knew what they were doing could achieve the same outcome with far less material.

It would not be surprising if traditional automakers have better expertise in efficient chassis/body construction as that is one of the only areas they have designed in house (along with ICE drivetrains).

If there is anyone on this board with expertise in this area it would be great to hear your opinion.

Quick Edit: If the 3 Chassis/Body is not yet optimally designed and Tesla are already making a positive margin then this is quite a positive outcome as we know that they continue to optimise their vehicles on an ongoing basis. Real margins on the 3 may be even better than they initially forecast if there is room to simplify the current design.
 
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Musk has neatly segued from lashing out at pedo guys and the SEC, to gently razzing famous gamers. I find this to be uh... tremendously bullish. $350 gapper monday
He’s having fun on tweeter, it seems he is no longer stressed. Perhaps a combination of production hell being over and love restarted with Grimes. Hope he stays this way from now on. Will be good for Q3 earning call!
 
Well, while we're discussing our expectations for what the Q4 targets will be, here's mine:

M3 peak weekly rate: 7k/wk
Total M3 produced: 70-75k (~5,5k/wk average)
M3 ASP: $56k
M3 margin: 20%

MS/MX unchanged.

Good estimates, I like it! I'm gonna throw my hat in the ring with a high number (one that assumes the 3 new Panasonic cell lines are running by the end of Nov):

2018 Q4 M3 Production: 85,400

:D
 
I guess I agree that for at least the next 3 quarters LR+ will be 80% of production.
Hi sweter,

At least for the next 26,770 VINs registered with NHTSA (but not yet produced), it's about 56% AWD and 44% RWD.

By end of next week (read: after the next 5K cars) AWD=LR and RWD=MR. This is likely to continue until at least Dec 31.

So no, 80% of production won't be LR. At least for the rest of this quarter, it'll be closer to 50/50.

Cheers!
 
Good estimates, I like it! I'm gonna throw my hat in the ring with a high number (one that assumes the 3 new Panasonic cell lines are running by the end of Nov):

2018 Q4 M3 Production: 85,400

:D

That’s nearly impossible. Electrek’s most recent numbers are 12,200 M3 in 18 days (+ a few hours). That’s on pace for 62k M3 for the quarter (12,200/12 days x 92 days in the quarter). I expect that number to rise throughout the quarter, but your number would require 73,200 M3 in 74 days, or 990/day.

I think they can hit that rate by the end of the quarter, but I don’t see how they can average that starting now.
 
Whichever way you slice it, introducing lower cost model before tax credits are over this year, only means one thing - LR demand volume alone cannot satisfy their current increased 1000 per day production volume. I am guessing the current increased production rate can sustain only 80% of LR variants, and the rest has to be satisfied with a lower cost variant (MR).
Knowing Elon, he might just be looking out for his early reservation holders including thousands of his employees who cannot afford the LR. This will give those folks a chance to buy their Car while managing M3 margin.

The fact that MR is released tells me their Q4 M3 margin must be plenty good (at least 20% as forcasted), so they are working to surpass production and delivery guidance, which is as important.
 
Also, according to Electrek, 6100 S/X in 18 days. That’s on pace for over 31k in Q4. That’s super impressive, especially if they’re doing that with two shifts— 30% margins should be possible at that rate.

So, through the first 18 days of the quarter, Tesla is on pace for:

60k+ Model 3

30k+ Model S/X

90k+ total vehicles

It’s a bit of a long shot, but they could actually produce more cars in Q4 than they did in all of 2017.
 
Good estimates, I like it! I'm gonna throw my hat in the ring with a high number (one that assumes the 3 new Panasonic cell lines are running by the end of Nov):

2018 Q4 M3 Production: 85,400

:D
My guess is guidance of 65,000 to 70,000 Model 3 production, then if all goes well they hit the high end of their target. Anything above that would be a nice upside surprise for me. Although it is probably a bit of a stretch, I have a feeling that Elon is going to try 100k total vehicle deliveries for Q4.
 
Whew. Lots of pages just read here, just off work and catching up. Summary:

Tesla is crushing it, need more buttons to fine tune reactions on posts, demand off charts, shorts crapping pants and spreading FUD with reckless abandon as surging freight train of profit/production comes nearing down, Elon’s happy, back with his girl, has awesome alter twitter ego, lemur is smart use of resources, #frunk puppy Friday is a real and fun thing, Elon’s mom follows me on twitter, and My model S now feels like a video arcade.

So these new cell lines that are being installed, has this been done yet? I want me some energy storage installation news! Heard about Colorado, but I was expecting more this quarter as per JB at ?Q2? ER......
 
Yeah, I’m interested in the details of this is well. We probably won’t find out until someone actually tears into one. It seems like they probably removed somewhere around 850 cells. Did they remove whole cell groups, or just pull cells out of every cell group and module?
No, we'll know what's inside it as soon as someone charges it and measures the battery capacity.

The only unknown is number of cells in parallel. The voltage of the pack must exactly equal the LR in order to avoid extensive re-enginnering. Even the S/X and 3 share the same voltage for their various packs so they can all use the same chargers.

Cheers!
 
I don't think we can make that link. We do know that the Tesla chassis/body has been heavily engineered compared to what Munro sees as normal (Munro stated it in his report and Tesla has not denied it), and we know that the 3 has excellent crash results (from NHTSA). But we don't know how much of a correlation there is between these two points. Could Tesla still receive the same safety ratings with a more simple and lighter design? I have no idea and am not an engineer. Other posts have said that Tesla fired the engineer responsible for the 3 chassis which also gives this statement some pause for thought.

Before becoming a globetrotting banker, I grew up on a farm in Australia and used to fabricate (to use the word loosely, it was more hillbilly engineering) many items that required fairly heavy load capacity (stock crates, feeders that would hold a few tonnes of grain, ramps, etc) and intuitively I would say that the more metal you put into something the stronger it gets. But I am sure someone who knew what they were doing could achieve the same outcome with far less material.

It would not be surprising if traditional automakers have better expertise in efficient chassis/body construction as that is one of the only areas they have designed in house (along with ICE drivetrains).

If there is anyone on this board with expertise in this area it would be great to hear your opinion.

Quick Edit: If the 3 Chassis/Body is not yet optimally designed and Tesla are already making a positive margin then this is quite a positive outcome as we know that they continue to optimise their vehicles on an ongoing basis. Real margins on the 3 may be even better than they initially forecast if there is room to simplify the current design.

Not another MacBanker?
 
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This is unbridled optimism. I honestly think there is no way they’ll be producing 10k/w this quarter. Just absolutely no way. Reign it in there buddy.
8k/w "leaked" to the press is their plan.
But I can bet on 10k/w for the last weeks (two?) of Q4. Just wait and see. They intend to make it stable rate in 2019 by Q2.
The number comes form the projections by Panasonic for their cell production lines in GF1.

10k is pretty much a maximum they can squeeze from existing Fremont factory.
 
No, we'll know what's inside it as soon as someone charges it and measures the battery capacity.

The only unknown is number of cells in parallel. The voltage of the pack must exactly equal the LR in order to avoid extensive re-enginnering. Even the S/X and 3 share the same voltage for their various packs so they can all use the same chargers.

Cheers!
I believe different sized packs do sometimes have different voltages, but they're mostly either ~400V fully charged for larger packs or ~350V fully charged for smaller packs.
 
8k/w "leaked" to the press is their plan.
But I can bet on 10k/w for the last weeks (two?) of Q4. Just wait and see. They intend to make it stable rate in 2019 by Q2.
The number comes form the projections by Panasonic for their cell production lines in GF1.

10k is pretty much a maximum they can squeeze from existing Fremont factory.
As awesome as that would be, I doubt they will hit it (unless it's 8k peak Model 3 and 2k S/X for '10k'). If for no other reason than every factory improvement seem to always take at least a few weeks longer than initially optimistically planned. So I would love for the cell lines to be operating by end of Q4, but I won't bet on it. Also, I'm not sure how long cells must be "aged", but you don't immediately go from 30% more cell output of Panasonic's cell lines to 30% cell input to Tesla's module assembly line. Hopefully cell aging is only a few days at most, but if it's weeks, then...
 
I don't think we can make that link. We do know that the Tesla chassis/body has been heavily engineered compared to what Munro sees as normal (Munro stated it in his report and Tesla has not denied it)
Jaguar I-Pace 2100kg.
Tesla Model S 2100kg.
There is nothing to search and nothing to interpret.

Tesla's bodies are designed with heavy battery in mind, and driver safety as a basis. And definitely they are not "heavily engineered".

Munro made mistakes and later acknowledged that. The things he complained about have very "simple" engineering reasoning coming from airspace (breaking sound-waves coming from vibrations in the rocket frame) and are a very powerful mechanisms to strengthen car body.
Making things heavy to make them stronger work not always and when it does it works just to a degree.
Heavy things have "heavier" inertia. Inertia is ivAl in engineering.
 
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