TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SO16]

I wanted a SR. But I bought LR the second I got the invite because of a combination of Fed tax credit running out, and more immediately WA sales tax exemption running out that month. So, I paid $15k more to save $10.5k

But you also got a better car....right?

 

[hacer]

Paragraph 4 of the settlement between the SEC and Tesla [Defendant] says, in part:

"4. Defendant agrees that it shall not seek or accept, directly or indirectly, reimbursement or indemnification from any source, including but not limited to payment made pursuant to any insurance policy, with regard to any civil penalty amounts that Defendant pays pursuant to the Final Judgement, regardless of whether such penalty amounts or any part thereof are added to a distribution fund or otherwise used for the benefit of investors. [....]"​

...

It strikes me that this provision has no other purpose than to harm TSLA investors. It guarantees that the GAAP profit will be $20M less, even if they held insurance to protect against this. That harms both bond holders and shareholders. It is totally contrary to the SEC mission.

 

[gringotuanis]

I don't vaguely think he is trying to be cool. he is just a gamer, making jokes on twitter about games like anybody else. The fact that this makes him seem 10,000x more down-to-earth than any other auto CEO in history is just... a nice side effect

Anyway.... back to market action... I've held my short-term margin positions way longer than intended. Next week better see the start of some positive climb towards Q3...

What do you have? Call options? Strike? Expy? Give the market thread some info!

 

[SO16]

Elon is playing this well. Fortnite is the most popular game right now, it has 78.3 million players. 63% of its players are 18-24, 22.5% are 25-34. This is free advertisement for him and his brands. Perfect target age group to sell his hip and futuristic products to.

Although Elon is a gamer himself so I don't think he's responding with the sole purpose of selling cars. But he trends well with the younger audience, they love him and think he's cool. Unlike the older suits.

A friend of mine’s daughter attends Michigan Tech. (Engineering) She said practically everyone she knows there wants to either work for Tesla or SpaceX.

Elon is absolutely courting the next group of customers and employees. This is what matters in the long run.

 

[SO16]

So that big white blotch on my car this morning was imaginary?

No....that was me.

J/k

 

[lklundin]

I thought the Saudis were supposed to make a big announcement yesterday that may have been related to Tesla / renewable energy. Anybody seen anything ? I may have missed it in all the lemur activity...

Considering the [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Jamal_Khashoggi]new heights of barbarism in Saudi-Arabia[/URL] I sincerely hope it has nothing to do with Tesla.

In fact, for as long as Tesla has limited resources for entering new countries, I hope they choose countries other than Saudi-Arabia.

It is bad enough that MbS invites US SecState Mike Pompeo over for a cozy chat (and some weapons dealing), but I would really like not to see anyone from Tesla in a similar situation.

Tesla does after all have its moral integrity reasonably intact.

 

[SO16]

Let me guess. The YouTube kid from the conference call.

I thought it was you. Playing both sides.

 

[keydiver]

As I remember the 60kwh packs were lower voltage and I think the 75 as well.

Yes, if I recall my 70D is around 360 volts.

 

[lklundin]

.Tesla Short Seller Warns of `Massive' Supply-Chain Disruption
Bloomberg) -- Short seller Fahmi Quadir, who’s betting against Tesla Inc., said the carmaker faces risks to its supply chain because some vendors haven’t been getting paid and others have been taking liens out against the company.

"Quadir, 28, didn’t identify any suppliers or vendors by name".

This is a blatant attempt at creating a "self-fulfilling prophecy" that can allow her to cover profitably.

While superficially funny or ridiculous, it should be investigated as attempted SP manipulation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

As I remember the 60kwh packs were lower voltage and I think the 75 as well.

Yeah, I've aware of the older spec batteries. I'm referring to current Tesla battery packs.

Cheers!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Here is my theory: The rate of BEV adoption will increase exponentially each year to the point where most every car buyer will want a BEV. ICE will be shunned as backwards and collapse. BEVs will go mainstream and it will happen much sooner than most people think. BEV demand will outstrip supply for the next 20 years. All thanks to Tesla! What this means for TSLA share price? No idea, but it is Saturday. Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Here is my theory: The rate of BEV adoption will increase exponentially each year to the point where most every car buyer will want a BEV. ICE will be shunned as backwards and collapse. BEVs will go mainstream and it will happen much sooner than most people think. BEV demand will outstrip supply for the next 20 years. All thanks to Tesla! What this means for TSLA share price? No idea, but it is Saturday. Cheers!

I tend to agree...largely...but there are a lot of unknowns.
In a world with rational actors then yes this would happen. But we have so many different forces all pulling and pushing in different directions it is hard to know if/when this will happen. I think if you asked a random person if they know about the IPCC report IPCC - SR15 you will get a blank stare from a depressingly high percentage.

Then you have reports like this Tesla's Electric Cars Aren't as Green as You Might Think and that is a sorta kinda friendly article. If your news feed tends towards a less than ECO friendly slant you probably see this Swedish study calls for smaller EV batteries, finds Tesla more polluting than an 8-year-old car | Autovista Group.

So I think while most here think/want the change to happen fast....a lot of forces want the opposite.

 

[mongo]

Modern BMS can handle rather big drops in pack voltage and stabilize it for inverters. Of course it goes other way as well.
One of the serious advantages of Tesla modules is big number of cells in the module. It allows graceful degradation for Tesla's batteries because loss of the one cell doesn't cause chain reaction and module's loss, as it is the case for typical for car industry 4 pouch batteries packed together with no electrical protection in between.

P.S. I never heard about necessity of "aging" for proper LiOn batteries.
You build a cell , you charge it, you seal El gap, you test internal impedance, repeat with the next cell.

The BMS handles over voltage, under voltage, and group balancing (along with peripheral safety functions). It is not a full pack DC-DC converter. The drive unit inverter can output any voltage lower than the pack input to the drive unit (buck converter). So top speed is limited by motor back EMF, pack voltage, motor resistance, and torque (power) needed for a speed.

There is an aging step of about two weeks that occurs after the liquid electrolyte is added to allow it to permeate. Then they apply a small charge current for the formation step. Then test and ship.

Agree that with 46 parallel cells per group in the 3, losing one (failing open circuit) only drops pack total capacity a little more than 2%. Total range loss is a bit more since the reserve capacity doesn't shift.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So these new cell lines that are being installed, has this been done yet?

My 'man-on-the-outside' in NV says 'by the end of Nov.'

 

[Words of HABIT]

Unpilot, I agree there is a lot of misinformation and distorted information out there. Looking at it more simplistically, the Paid Media Sources (PMS for short as I like to call them) do not hold much water for the general population. General population sees Tesla EV, rides it, falls in love with it, wants it, craves it, end of story. It does not take a genius to figure out BEV are cleaner than ICE and no PMS report can convince those in the know. Just take a look under the hood. There is not even a tail pipe. This is an awaking. Humanities defining moment.

 

[Words of HABIT]

....so with lemur, my M3 RWD PUP just become a classic collectors car. SWEET!

 

[S3XY]

So that big white blotch on my car this morning was imaginary?

No. Ttacking device. Wash your car IMMEDIATELY.

 

[neroden]

It's too bad more bulls refuse to pay attention to the Munro video on Bloomberg. It really is generally positive, but is very critical of the chassis design for manufacturing. What was have learned from the chassis and the GA line failure is that Tesla is not been very good at mechanical and industrial engineers so far.

I actually think they're pretty good at mechanical and industrial engineering; at this point I have contempt for their software engineering practices, however.

These areas of expertise are furthest from Musk's experience, and he really has caused some unforced errors. But these areas are also fixable, unlike major errors in product design or core technologies.

The software should be even easier to fix.

 

[neroden]

What we know for sure is that Tesla is taking orders now for 2018 delivery in North America.

We actually don't know this. We knew this when they gave the "Orders placed by October 15th will be delivered by the end of the year" statement, but then they took that away.

Tesla's current claims on their website... well... um. They're giving estimated delivery dates with no promises and we know how well THAT has worked out in the past.

So this tells us the North America demand at the $50K plus price point.

Except it doesn't. We still know that they're planning to ramp up production, *and* that they're notoriously optimistic. This does *not* tell us how long it will take to satisfy the waiting list. I advise you, do not be surprised if they end up mailing $7500 checks to a bunch of people who ordered before October 15th and didn't get their cars until the new year.

This is why they are easing the price point down to stimulate NA demand.

They have invested in NA distribution and they want to keep the volume up here while adding more markets.

That's certainly true.

 

[tinm]

Elon's talking about adding the ability to use your phone as a controller over bluetooth on the games. How long until the first competitor does something like this? Can you imagine the meetings. "But we're a car company! Nobody knows how to do that!"

Imagine Elon talking about Tesla adding full support for media devices like iPods and the music apps of phones: fast, responsive access to your whole audio collection via bluetooth or USB: artist, track, playlist, genre, album, shuffle mode, everything.

I know. I can’t imagine it either.