TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I think you're right about this. Jonas in particular will have to revise his analysis.

Adam Jonas is an idiot. This is the guy who valued a fictional "Tesla Mobility" with autonomous Uber cars at billions and *simultaneously* valued the actually-existing, actually-profitable, huge-waiting-list Tesla Energy at zero. With his errors being in the billions in both directions, his analysis is worth less than a stopped clock. John Petersen's constant cobalt scaremongering is more useful, and it isn't useful at all.

 

[neroden]

Imagine Elon talking about Tesla adding full support for media devices like iPods and the music apps of phones: fast, responsive access to your whole audio collection via bluetooth or USB: artist, track, playlist, genre, album, shuffle mode, everything.

I know. I can’t imagine it either.

Yeah. Imagine Tesla actually making USB playback work as well as a CD player (currently it's a lot worse). I can't imagine it after five years of contacting every point I can think of.

Tesla has huge disadvantages in software, due to the grotesque failure of their software team to actually listen to customer feedback. There may be an open letter on this published soon.

 

[neroden]

Do we think this guy would be good for Chairman?

CEO berates analysts on conference call: 'You are a disaster...they will have to commit suicide'

Well, I disagree with him about Trump -- but I agree with his assessment of the Wall Street "analysts" -- they are mostly idiots who can't do math and don't understand the first thing about any business whatsoever. (There are exceptions.)

 

[neroden]

Wasn’t today an end date for a lot of puts? Could that buy order have been executed puts?

More likely a bunch of puts were closed out and the market makers had to unwind their hedges against them -- the market makers hedge by short-selling the stock, so they have to buy a bunch.

 

[neroden]

Yah, that what I attempt to say:

perhaps I should have said "like, or write".

I do think "thanks" when I get disagrees due to being wrong. If it is within the editing period, I write the thanks out in the edit. I'll even report my own post to get it corrected.

Scenario: Someone posts that the MR pack is software limited.
Option 1:
One or multiple people create posts replying that it is not. Those posts may or may not be anywhere near the original post.
Reader may or may not see the follow up post in a relevant time frame. Is the truthfulness judged by the number of redundant replies?

Option 2:
Multiple people click disagree, read further and see that it has been addresses long form and don't bother to post.
Next readers see the post wad voted way down and think "huh, maybe it's wrong"

I agree that a driveby disagree for the sake of disagreeing or an attempt at moderation is not helpful.

This, I absolutely agree with.

I often put disagrees on posts which I think are wrong where someone else has *already* written out why it's wrong. Rather than spamming the board with yet another debunking.

 

[Chickenlittle]

We actually don't know this. We knew this when they gave the "Orders placed by October 15th will be delivered by the end of the year" statement, but then they took that away.

Tesla's current claims on their website... well... um. They're giving estimated delivery dates with no promises and we know how well THAT has worked out in the past.


Except it doesn't. We still know that they're planning to ramp up production, *and* that they're notoriously optimistic. This does *not* tell us how long it will take to satisfy the waiting list. I advise you, do not be surprised if they end up mailing $7500 checks to a bunch of people who ordered before October 15th and didn't get their cars until the new year.


That's certainly true.

I think this is the best indication that demand is not softening. If it were, the most potent inducement to order would be guarantee if you ordered now your car would be delivered this year to get full 7500 credit that costs tesla nothing

 

[neroden]

What I missed in the discussions about lemur is that Elon on Twitter gave the most concrete date yet for their ability to produce the modified SR battery pack.

It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February

Or did I just overlook any posts on this?

Yep, you caught something we missed. Given Musk optimism, expect April.

I think with the current bottleneck being *cell* production, the introduction of the MR car implies that they are actually going to get total car production up. Remember it was only 4700 Model 3s / week as of the last leak. If cell production is holding them down... they need to get that rate up.

It's also worth remembering that the point at which they are done with the old reservation list is actually dependent on how fast they produce the cars. So if they are optimistically thinking they'll hit 6500/week by the end of the year, they finish off the reservation list a lot faster than if they're stuck at 4700/week for the rest of the year.

Because they're notoriously optimistic, I don't think we really know how long the reservation list is or when it will be fulfilled. They are optimistically hoping to fulfill it all really quickly, but that doesn't *mean* anything.

 

[AndyH]

I tend to agree...largely...but there are a lot of unknowns.
In a world with rational actors then yes this would happen. But we have so many different forces all pulling and pushing in different directions it is hard to know if/when this will happen. I think if you asked a random person if they know about the IPCC report IPCC - SR15 you will get a blank stare from a depressingly high percentage.

Then you have reports like this Tesla's Electric Cars Aren't as Green as You Might Think and that is a sorta kinda friendly article. If your news feed tends towards a less than ECO friendly slant you probably see this Swedish study calls for smaller EV batteries, finds Tesla more polluting than an 8-year-old car | Autovista Group.

So I think while most here think/want the change to happen fast....a lot of forces want the opposite.

The transition will be very different based on location. In some European countries and California ICE sales could plummet in less than 5 years. In Norway it's already happening. The various rebates provided by goverments does make a difference. EV transition would be slower without them. Politicans are doing something right even though they should be doing a lot more.

Damn, I whish that Sweden had some spare billions from an oil fund like the Norwegians have. Instead we have Volvo churning out diesels like there's no tomorrow with no EV's in sight despite all the promises.

 

[neroden]

Oh, also: I'd greatly appreciate a "Agree" button. And I find "Helpful" and "Informative" to be too close to each other to be a useful distinction.

Agree.

But I do think that "agree" lends itself dangerously to groupthink pressure, worse than "disagree". (We all agree, why don't you?)

 

[neroden]

yeah that, and a question mark

I would like a "Huh!?!?" button. I usually choose "funny"

 

[neroden]

I wanted a SR. But I bought LR the second I got the invite because of a combination of Fed tax credit running out, and more immediately WA sales tax exemption running out that month. So, I paid $15k more to save $10.5k

But you also got to drive your electric car at least six months earlier. So that's worth something, right?

 

[neroden]

I think we should be starting an education campaign, talking to reporters and on social media about how ICE cars will go the way of dodo and why it doesn't make sense to buy a new ice vehicle now.

We can debate advantages of electric cars, but I think it's time to raise awareness around the economic downside of trying to sell your ice car in 5-6 years from now.

I started telling people that 10 years ago -- a bit early to have an impact, given that people's memories seem to be very short.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, I've aware of the older spec batteries. I'm referring to current Tesla battery packs.

Cheers!

I guess I missed the change to the 75 packs. Do you know when that happened?

 

[neroden]

I don't think its likely that Model 3 Q4 Production exceeds this estimate, though there are two identified variables:

1. the 3 new Panasonic cell lines could come online early. I weigh this possible though unlikely, according to my 2nd-hand source *outside* GF1 (Rating: Skuttlebutt). Similarly, if Panasonic is late, Q4 production goes down.
2. the new Panasonic lines may themselves be upgraded, rather than just clones of the existing lines. Some commenters are speculating about 50% greater throughput per new line, but I have zero evidence of that, so I discount it. If true, Dec 2018 Production would increase by 3600 Model 3s, but let's leave it out of the estimate above pending evidence.

That second one's a rumor coming from a guy (carsonight) who has contacts inside the Gigafactory. I rate it "probably sort of true", i.e. I believe the lines are upgraded and faster, but I think "50% greater throughput" may be the usual wild optimism.

 

[neroden]

1. 17h17 hours ago
   Maye Musk Retweeted Ross Gerber
   
   
   
   
   
   
   @GerberKawasaki Staying on top of @Tesla news
   
   
   
   #CleanEnergyWillWin #Pravduh
   
   
   Ross Gerber‏Verified account @GerberKawasaki
   Maybe I read this wrong. But Jonas at MS just put out a note that Tesla will do over $700 mil in cash flow Q4. That’s huge. The tide has turned folks. $tsla
   
   
   With Maybe Musk now actively supporting Elon on Twitter there are two options possible, either its Elon writing at least partly with her account or what she writes is coordinated with him. I would rule out that she is commenting without his knowledge and support.
   
   Looking at where she agrees to for instance at more financial oriented information from MS about CF and looking what Made Musk field of expertise is I'd say this is rather Elon holding the pen from time to time.

Absoutely disagree. I think Maye can do basic math as well as many of us on the board, and can tell from public information that Tesla will have huge positive cash flow in Q4, and I think that's all there is to it. If I can tell that Tesla will have large positive cash flow, and so can luvb2b, then so can Maye. She's a smart woman, not a Wall Street "analyst".

 

[humbaba]

This, I absolutely agree with.

I often put disagrees on posts which I think are wrong where someone else has *already* written out why it's wrong. Rather than spamming the board with yet another debunking.

only problem with this approach is that -- while annoying to everyone that actively follows the board -- there's so much traffic that repeated debunking is the best remedy for someone to actually see it. You can stack twenty disagrees on a post, but then you have to do it again on the next smokey bird post.

Part of the goal of trolling is to destroy a resource. They don't mind getting a hundred disagrees (especially if it starts firing up people's emotions) and they don't mind posting the same drivel over and over and over... Anything to increase the noise.

Am I doing that (adding to the clutter)? Sigh. But I think these meta discussions are important.

Personally, I don't use "disagree", ever. If you look at my profile you'll see that I've given one, not sure where/how that happened, but it is the only one. In a healthy forum the disagree would serve a useful purpose for gauging community sentiment on something.

However, despite my personal sentiment, I am glad that some people are using disagree. I don't think my approach is the only one and I think the board is better off for their being different posters with different perspectives and different approaches. So, while I do think there's a problem with your approach (as outlined above) I think there's a problem with mine and anyone else's. I think its good that people differ.

So the fact that we have a mix of disagrees on poor posts combined with debunking posts is, IMO, overall a good thing. To reduce noise in the forum requires effective moderation. Which is being done by volunteers and is a thankless task (you won't catch me offering to do it). I'm not criticizing the valiant attempts by the mods.

Also, IMO, this thread is kinda special. It has such high traffic that it is quite useful in terms of getting responses (as other posters have already noted), though this means it is rarely topical. I get the impression that at least most of the posters have an interest in market action and the high activity here is a reflection of how interesting that is. But people find it easier to track one thread rather than the twenty whatever that are contained here. I will admit, I read far more different threads before I joined and started posting.

Boy, I really feel like I've been rambling so I'll try to give a coherent summary:

IMO --
1) repeated debunking increases noise, but still has utility
2) focusing on disagrees has utility, but doesn't compete well
3) my approach isn't yours, but diversity is good
4) thank god for the mods
5) high activity and non-topicality are inherently interrelated

 

[neroden]

Considering the new heights of barbarism in Saudi-Arabia I sincerely hope it has nothing to do with Tesla.

In fact, for as long as Tesla has limited resources for entering new countries, I hope they choose countries other than Saudi-Arabia.

It is bad enough that MbS invites US SecState Mike Pompeo over for a cozy chat (and some weapons dealing), but I would really like not to see anyone from Tesla in a similar situation.

Tesla does after all have its moral integrity reasonably intact.

Saudi Arabia has always been barbaric and evil, since it was founded by a warlord in a pact with murderous, fanatical iconoclastic religious extremists. They're no better than the Lord's Resistance Army, they just get away with stuff because they have oil and oil is valuable. People are just noticing Saudi Arabia's evil more lately -- maybe because we're less dependent on oil, so less inclined to turn a blind eye? It's also severely unstable and a dangerous place to visit what with the government-sanctioned kidnappings. I hope nobody important from Tesla ever even *goes* there; it's not safe. If the Saudis want to buy stock on the NASDAQ, I guess we can't stop them, but if they want to talk to Tesla, they should have to come to California.

 

[Bunky]

Mike Bloomberg's Twitter is below. Feel free to let him know how you feel.

He does have a history of strongly supporting environmental causes, especially relating to climate change. Maybe it is time for him to take a look into the steady stream of garbage about Tesla being published in the publication that bears his name.

Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) | Twitter

Done, and would encourage others to do the same. Thanks!

 

[kelly]

Hi Kelly, how are you?

No, Elon tweeted quite clearly on Thu that the MR pack is just a LR pack with fewer cells put installed, but they can do the MR pack NOW instead of February. So the new pack is what's coming for the SR in 4-6 mths, according to Tesla's Model 3 ordering page.

I do appreciate the digg for the EM quote from Aug 6, thanks.

Cheers!

Hi Lodger, I'm much better now. Thanks for asking.

My paint buzz was short lived. I was not aware of Elon tweeting about the battery being a LR with fewer cells. Mongo was kind enough to provide a link to the tweet.

Somewhere I recall reading more detail about the new battery line than what I quoted from the Aug. 6 call, but I stopped looking for it when I found the quote from Aug. 6.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon's talking about adding the ability to use your phone as a controller over bluetooth on the games. How long until the first competitor does something like this? Can you imagine the meetings. "But we're a car company! Nobody knows how to do that!"

Or:

It’s silly.
None of our customers want/need that.
It’s against some kind of government regulation/law, no?
None of our customers would ever use it.
It adds unnecessary cost, cutting into our margins.

The reasons they could give themselves are endless, just as are the reasons they are giving themselves now preventing them from getting serious about EVs.