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It would be strategically better if KSA purchased Russian/Chinese weapons.

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An analyst I read thinks most of it is from systems designed by people from the country who happened to host the prior company that screwed Tesla on their AP HW (M.E.) (I'm not saying nor implying those two things are related, merely using them as an address finder), but that was that analysts' conjecture based upon lots of evidence.
 
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Needs money to fund Boring Company, Neuralink, various SEC fines and stock purchases. Also, BFR.
SpaceX, charter schools, living, daily, and security expenses (what isn't expensed), loan interest, too, but I think most the SpaceX investments were extensively talked about years ago, so that can be looked up seperately. He claims Boring Company has very little investment from him, but I've not tracked the exact amounts through time; the merchandising has been some of the funding.
 
BTW., I was looking at the same numbers, and I found it slightly weird that 96x46 is not 4,426 but 4,416, and that 4426*4900*3.65 isn't 80.5kWh but 79.16 kWh.

Does anyone know the exact specs of the 2,170 cells?

Pretty sure it is 4416 to be correct, seems 4426 was a typo that took on some life of it's own there. I'm not entirely sure why so many places have it listed as 80.5kWh but the math seems to say it should be a bit lower depending on your assumptions (cell voltage and capacity).

From Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks :

Jack Rickard / EVTV said:
The bricks or what I call “cells” is actually made of of 46 cylindrical cells 21 mm in diameter and 70mm long. They are nominally 3.6v at 5 amp-hours capacity with the 46 connected in parallel. So 3.6v x 230 Ah per cell and 25 cells for 90 volts on the long ones and 23 cells for 82.8volts This gives us a nominal pack voltage of 345.6volts at 230 Ah for a total capacity of 79,488 watt-hours. It has been LISTED at 80.5 kWh elsewhere and that COULD be true if the amp hour capacity were 232.92 Ah indicating 5.0636 Ah per cylinder. I’m good with that but we’re parsing the fine print here.

I also now notice that the comment I copy and pasted from indicated Model 3 LR should be 400V fully charged, but that doesn't fit the math if they're really 3.65V per cell (96 in series * 3.65 = 350.4V), and Jack Rickard reports their pack at 345.6 (96 x 3.6), so I'm not sure who's right on cell voltage except that you can't hit 400V with only 3.xx volts per cell in series at 96s. To reach 400V, you'd have to run the cells up to (400V / 96 = ) 4.17V. So maybe the cells are engineered to run up to ~4.2V, and the BMS just won't let them reach it ("wasting capacity" for increased lifetime), or ... who knows.

I'd take Jack Rickard's word over a commenter on TMS, generally (as Jack Rickard actually tore a pack apart). But I would never assume he's infallible either.
 
Not in any way demeaning them, but what buildings exactly has SpaceX built at Boca Chica and KSC/CCAFS? Not that either site is reclaimed land in a polder in a subsiding city famous for its increasing rate of floods... but regardless, what buildings exactly have they built even ignoring that? They've only installed a few pieces of outdoor hardware at Boca Chica, and they retrofitted the pads (but not buildings) at 39A and SLC-40. The sites were built by the US government in the 1960s.

Again, don't interpret this as "Tesla / SpaceX don't know how to build buildings". I don't mean this in any way, shape, or form. I'm only bringing up that there are risk factors beyond their control at the Shanghai site. E.g. if there's a levee overtopping, that's not a condemnation of Tesla's design and construction work - but having several meters of water flow into their site certainly would affect them greatly.

Having helped with both flood evacuations and flood cleanups, I have a healthy level of respect for the power of water.

Boca Chica not much has been built yet, but in order to do preliminary work such as soil surcharging they had to have (either internally or externally) engineers with the right experience to determine it needed done and how much. In Florida they built the Horizontal Integration Facility at LC-39A, and I they also built the HIF at SLC-40. The HIFs may seem like simple structures but they are large footprints and must support the mass of the strongback, multiple (unfueled) boosters, a second stage, and a payload, and all the cranes and etc to work with them. After the Atmos-6 disaster at SLC-40 they had to tear out and replace just about everything on the pad itself too, which I believe may have required some heat-damaged concrete to be removed and replaced in the pad foundations but I'm not sure how much from memory, and I don't feel like digging through 100's of forum posts over at NSF to find out at the moment.

Plus Tesla itself knows about building for storms itself, as many (most?) flood risk Supercharger locations have all the expensive parts (AC/DC charger racks and storage if any, etc) elevated.

So while neither company has done anything on the scale of GF3 in a location with it's potential risks, I'm pretty sure they'll realize there's a risk to consider, and either know how to deal with it already, or know who to call to figure it out.
 
That's true to a certain extent - but we do have the guidance from Tesla that they prefer to keep margins of all products at around 25% (with a 30% target), so them releasing it is a sign that they probably see the path towards those levels of margins.

And no, it's no true that $35k at $0 margin is useless: the entry price is actually one of the least bought variants for any car company and Tesla won't be different. The entry price is often just marketing, but there will be a lot of people who buy a $40k car: $35k base + $5k AutoPilot, which will already by a nice incremental margin even if the margin is zero at $35k.

Also, how many bare-bones $35k units are sold is entirely up to Tesla: they could increase the wait time to reduce demand for that variant. That's what car dealers throughout the U.S. are doing: it's actually pretty hard to buy a new car at the entry price, they are almost never in inventory ...

However they haven't released it so the margin analysis is begging the question. I'll grant that 35k$ literally at 0$ can be shifted up a little for it's marketing value but that's not really the point. Excitement about the major ramp in sales as one decreases price has to be put in context of what the actual unit profitability is. Tesla may be far better off delivering what people believed would be the 35k$ model configuration at 40k$. Thanks for the analysis.
 
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The SR is still coming. Just two days ago the official Tesla twitter account confirmed that.

Tesla on Twitter

Thanks for that tweet. I try to minimize the time I waste in the twitterverse, but I HAD to phone this in: "A guide to FUD: why all roads lead to bankwuptcy". Cheers!

Dp5AkOQWwAEPcYw[1].jpg
 
So while neither company has done anything on the scale of GF3 in a location with it's potential risks, I'm pretty sure they'll realize there's a risk to consider, and either know how to deal with it already, or know who to call to figure it out.
Generally speaking, most large buildings hire the right people with the right experience and education in those types of construction engineering, and unlike electric car motors, electric car battery cells, and electric car marketplaces, the construction education for that is pretty well established and pretty well understood, and even though it continually updates and goes through changes, mostly those updates and changes are also on pathways that are also pretty well established and pretty well understood. However, one can always use one's own eyeballs and see a few of the same things they're going to measure and put into their engineereing calculations. Also, it's easy to stand in the middle of an engineering company hierarchy as someone's boss and point at someone and order them to ignore something; it could be one little tiny number or tiny variable, that throws the whole thing. So, I wouldn't discount the experience of the entire construction education and industrial system, nor would I discount the ability of those of us with eyeballs and brains to use those too. While the water issue is a concern, I too think that it is not a showstopper; already, we've seen that most tsunamis don't come from the direction that would affect that land area, and I presume that we will experience that outcome of no problems during the growth phase of Tesla. My guess is that by the time anything of the sort happens, it will simply be at a time in Tesla's industrial life that it has enough redundancy that those issues are more of a local problem than a corporate problem. However, I want them to thoroughly look into such things to make certain they aren't putting themselves prematurely at risk; if not, fine, but if so, just align things so that it works out. Maybe there's some insurer with enough cash to underwrite it away.
 
However they haven't released it so the margin analysis is begging the question.

But both the German and the Munro tear-down estimated marginal cost of about $28k, or 20% cash margin.

Granted the non-cash CoG narrows that margin, but with the new pack design and the cell and pack level savings they'll have additional margin improvements that no-one included so far.

Also, most of the non-cash amortization and depreciation costs should phase out as time progresses.

Plus the estimates might be overstating costs: Munro for example used $150/kWh of marginal cost for the LR, and the Germans assumed $10,000 direct labor costs, both of which are almost certainly too high.

The MR is priced at $225/kWh, so probably 40-50% of margin.

So I have little doubt at this point that even the $35k version will generate cash and even GAAP income - the main reason for the delay is the high demand for LR (and now MR).
 
So I have little doubt at this point that even the $35k version will generate cash and even GAAP income - the main reason for the delay is the high demand for LR (and now MR).

Confused. Are you saying you think the base $35k car would have positive gross margin if they started shipping it now?

That strikes me as... unlikely. Even Musk’s estimate of gross margins on M3 for Q3 were 15%, and that included those from the higher margin versions and options. Even if you take the best case and assume it was 15% margins on the $49k spec, that’s still $41,650 to build the car. I don’t remember the pack costs, but I have a hard time believing those and the lack of PUP alone would cut the cut cost to build by >$6650.
 
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Confused. Are you saying you think the base $35k car would have positive gross margin if they started shipping it now?

That strikes me as... unlikely. Even Musk’s estimate of gross margins on M3 for Q3 were 15%, and that included those from the higher margin versions and options. Even if you take the best case and assume it was 15% margins on the $49k spec, that’s still $41,650 to build the car. I don’t remember the pack costs, but I have a hard time believing those and the lack of PUP alone would cut the cut cost to build by >$6650.
I read his post as looking at the time dimension properly. It's been a common refrain from many ever since the start of Tesla to not look at the time dimension. Seriously, please stop that.
 
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but that doesn't fit the math if they're really 3.65V per cell (96 in series * 3.65 = 350.4V

Hi BioSehnsucht,

In this usage, 3.65v would the "nominal voltage" used to compute the cell's energy capacity. Think of Nominal voltage as the median working voltage for the cell throughout its charge/discharge cycle.

Note that Li-NCA chemistry (used in current Tesla cars) has a working voltage closer to 3.80 volt (see the attached chart) Chart notes: Li-NMC is used in TE storage applications, and "DOD" means Depth of Discharge.

You can see that for NCA chemistry, at 0.5 DOD (the median value) state of charge is 3.80v. LFP1/2 are two other bty chemistries for comparison, variants of Lithium-Iron-Phosphate typically used in energy storage products.

Cheers!

Li NCA vs NMC discharge curves.png
 
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That's an over-simplification, since 5 of John's shares are not under his control. if he decides to sell them, it triggers a share recall that forces bob to offer a price high enough for sam to sell his shares to bob, so that they can be returned to John, for John to sell to someone else (or john sells his lent shares to bob to cancel out the borrow).

the point is that although there's 15 shares to account for, there aren't really 15 shares "floating"/available.

I'm not questioning whether or not they are under this control and I can't disagree with that. In this example, I'm not looking at voting rights, dividends, or anything other than trading volume, which does affect price.

I'm simply illustrating that there are, from a standpoint of supply/demand, more shares on the market to trade. Is that true?
And if so, is that dilutive?

"if he decides to sell them"
And what if he doesn't? Try to stick w/ the example. You could make infinite # of "what if's" to avoid the point I'm trying to make/understand (ie dilution and downward pressure on SP).
 
So I have little doubt at this point that even the $35k version will generate cash and even GAAP income - the main reason for the delay is the high demand for LR (and now MR).

Elon was quite clear in his tweet on Oct 18 that "we can get it done now instead of ~February". So L3MR exists to expedite the Model 3 volume rampup in Fremont, under current constraints on bty cells from Panasonic at GF1. Simple. :D

Cheers!
 
John had 10 shares.

John rents 5 shares out to Bob.

John now has 5 shares and a promise from Bob to return 5 shares later.

Bob sells the 5 shares to Sam.

Now.

John has 5 shares and a promise from Bob to return 5 more shares later.

Sam has 5 shares.

There are still just 10 shares.

Is this really that hard to get?

"Now.

John has 5 shares and a promise from Bob to return 5 more shares later."

Hmm, you say that shares are rented out, but this feels like a semantics trick. When John logs into his brokerage account, what does he see? 5 non-rented shares and 5 rented-out shares? I'm guessing he sees 10 shares, plain and simple. And when Sam logs in he sees 5 shares as well. Therefore there are 15 shares that are now tradeable in the marketplace.

You're example, where you say "There are still just 10 shares." would only be accurate if the 5 shares that John loaned out were removed from the marketplace under John's name. In the real world, that's not the case. Those shares aren't removed under John's name and put into Bob's name (they may be from a pure legal standpoint, but not from a market numbers standpoint).

Yes, in theory, there are still just 10 shares, legally (as in, the actual legal note of stock ownership). But the actual number of shares that can be traded are 15 at this point. Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
But both the German and the Munro tear-down estimated marginal cost of about $28k, or 20% cash margin.

Granted the non-cash CoG narrows that margin, but with the new pack design and the cell and pack level savings they'll have additional margin improvements that no-one included so far.

Also, most of the non-cash amortization and depreciation costs should phase out as time progresses.

Plus the estimates might be overstating costs: Munro for example used $150/kWh of marginal cost for the LR, and the Germans assumed $10,000 direct labor costs, both of which are almost certainly too high.

The MR is priced at $225/kWh, so probably 40-50% of margin.

So I have little doubt at this point that even the $35k version will generate cash and even GAAP income - the main reason for the delay is the high demand for LR (and now MR).
Right. Just keep in mind those teardowns assumed a 10k/week production rate and we are at about half of that. Having said that, mandatory PuP and higher capacity/margin packs help for sure.

It is also interesting to contemplate how much labor costs could be. Munro was calculating with 10k per car for that as in yachts the norm for traditional companies. However Tesla has higher automation. On the flipside it is located in the expensive Bay area.

Any thoughts on that FC?
 
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It is not delutive at all.

If the company has a profit of $10. The earnings per share will be $10 divided by 10 or $1 per share.

If the company pays a 0.5$ dividend it will pay Sam $2.5 because Sam is the registered owner of 5 shares. It will pay John $2.5 because John is the registered owner of 5 shares.

Bob will also have to pay John $2.5 because that is part of the cost for borrowing the 5 shares.

Perhaps dilutive is the wrong word. I'm not talking about the impact to dividends or voting rights.
I'm talking about the impact to daily stock price in the open marketplace.

If there are more shares available to trade then that inherently puts downward pressure on stock price as it artificially increases the SUPPLY OF TRADEABLE SHARES.

So please answer this one very simple question - When stocks are "loaned" to short sellers, does that increase the number of total available shares available for trading in the open marketplace?
 
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