TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ellec]

This stock won’t make a huge move up unless there is some crazy good news. Shorts control the price.

The price is going to be stationary until Q3 earnings. Whenever that is...

"Q3 2018 Reporting Date: Please stay tuned as date has not yet been set"

 

[gora321]

BASF, Nornickel join forces in EV battery push

Start-up of the plant, which will be able to supply batteries for about 300,000 EVs a year, is planned for late 2020, the supplier said in a statement.

What a push!

 

[RoadsterPlease]

I am so excited that there will be a future in 10-30 years where most of the traffic, especially in cities, will be electric.
There are other industries that have to be improved, like big ships burning oil, but I have hope that we will get there and humans have a fair chance to survive on this planet and live sustainable in symbiosis with nature.

Had to remind myself over the weekend why I am invested in this stock, and the stock market in general. But helping accelerate this mission with the money I can invest is what I want.

Today there will hopefully be a green day for Tesla and the future.

 

[ZsoZso]

Bob Klutz "All 3 US car companies...". Apparently he forgot about Chrysler.

Well, he is actually correct on that point. Chrysler is no longer American owned by Fiat (European/Italian). Fiat recently decided to ditch the Chrysler name, will probably discontinue most Chrysler models, keep the Jeep name/models which actually makes them money.

 

[immunogold]

Baillie Gifford Increases Stake in Tesla (TSLA) • r/teslainvestorsclub

Baillie Gifford increases TSLA holdings from 12.78 million shares to 13.17 million shares (up 3.1% in Q2).

 

[Chickenlittle]

Virtually the amount of shares may increase but the more important question is if the amount of shares that can be traded at a given time do increase and my understanding is that is not the case.

So it looks like more shares are around but the same amount of shares ( 170 m) can be traded at a given point in time. Therefore the effect on shares traded at a given time are not impacted.

Given that you can lend a lot of shares pretty cheap you have more ability to manipulate the SP though. Therefore shorting is in my view evil and should not be allowed as it does NOT help to determine the true value in a company but manipulates it.

Its a vicious instrument and I have no understanding that the SEC does not bann it. Clearly its bad in any case for a normal retail investor. Just my opinion...

Funny in 2008 crisis one of the first moves was to prevent short selling of financial industry. If short selling so valuable for determining the “fair” price of a company than why do such a move. It is really all about the financial industry and it’s power they are the biggest group to reap benefits of short selling by collecting fees, commissions, interest rates and profit from loaning on margin. Once financial industry threatened by the short selling system, it is immediately suspended.

 

[anthonyj]

Baillie Gifford Increases Stake in Tesla (TSLA) • r/teslainvestorsclub

Baillie Gifford increases TSLA holdings from 12.78 million shares to 13.17 million shares (up 3.1% in Q2).

This was first reported in July

 

[Chickenlittle]

The price is going to be stationary until Q3 earnings. Whenever that is...

"Q3 2018 Reporting Date: Please stay tuned as date has not yet been set"

I have always seen tesla give 2 week notice of report but no obligation to do so. Wonder if that may change this qtr. I doubt Musk is in love with Wall Street and could screw with them about this

 

[Ellec]

I have always seen tesla give 2 week notice of report but no obligation to do so. Wonder if that may change this qtr. I doubt Musk is in love with Wall Street and could screw with them about this

I thought about the surprise earnings, but what about the Conference Call, don't the analysts need some notice? Is there any precedent for a surprise earnings report.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I thought about the surprise earnings, but what about the Conference Call, don't the analysts need some notice? Is there any precedent for a surprise earnings report.

Yes some companies have pre reported earnings. I am not sure but would expect that most analysts are not on Musk friend lists. I am sure that given the nature of the typical analyst question during the conference that the quality of questions cannot be worse with no preparation for conference

 

[Ellec]

Yes some companies have pre reported earnings. I am not sure but would expect that most analysts are not on Musk friend lists. I am sure that given the nature of the typical analyst question during the conference that the quality of questions cannot be worse with no preparation for conference

Yeah, he could just do the CC on YouTube live and take questions from users.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

As someone who has a lot of Tesla shares held long, and a bunch more currently on margin (so eating some overnight hold costs for quite a wwhile now.. )... I have to say that:

I'm fine with tesla keeping relatively quiet about how well they are doing.
All us long know that any auto company that doesn't have either suicidal thoughts, or their head up their own ass, should be scrambling like crazy to make some decent electric cars right now, but frankly if they are too stupid to do this, why clue them in any more than we have to?
When you are totally devastating someones share of the market, why let them know until you have to? or to quote napoleon: 'never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake'.

Teslas grip on high end electric cars is already absolute at this point. I'm happy with everyone ignoring their insane production figures long enough to make their grip on the mid-range cars absolute too. I don't have to sell my shares this year.

 

[CorneliusXX]

As a mathematician it figuratively drives me insane when people argue past each other because they are using different definitions.

It would be helpful if the two of you could agree what “share” means. Once you do I think you will actually agree with each other. For example, you could call them physical shares and virtual shares.

If Sam, or whatever his name was, owns 10 shares and lends out 5 he owns 5 physical shares but 10 virtual shares. His brokerage might tell him that he owns 10 shares, but they are referring to virtual shares. As far as Tesla is concerned, only physical shares count, and Sam can only vote his 5 physical shares.

There is no such thing as a negative number of physical shares, but a short-seller owns a negative number of virtual shares. The number of physical shares and the number of virtual shares both add up to the total number of shares issued by the company, but the number of virtual shares held by longs can be greater.

Short-selling is not dilutive because dilutive is a technical term that refers to increasing the number of physical shares. But of course selling, by longs or shorts, tends to decrease the price. By an equal amount, all else being equal. (If the short-sellers for example pick a low-volume time of the day to drive down the price then all else is not equal.)

Is that all clear?

I think the piece missing here is that longs have purchased the sum of all the physical and virtual shares. Bob has still paid for 10 shares even though he has lent out 5. There is a real increase in supply of shares from a demand perspective and the price is therefore reduced compared to a no short selling scenario.

There is a pile of money from longs sitting in shorts trading accounts to be used to assist making Bob whole on the 5 shares he lent out if the short can't cover.

 

[Krugerrand]

Whelp, Tesla's plan to use LeMR to pull forward SR buyers into Q4 appears to be backfiring. I have a friend who's been sitting on a Model 3 reservation for some time, waiting for the SR. Today we chatted about the new MR, he decided it was probably time to buy to ensure he gets the full tax credit, and we then caravaned over to the Tesla gallery to compare the colors he was considering.

During that drive I, uhh, took a spirited tack in my 3 thus ensuring that he in his 4Runner couldn't quite keep up.

Long story short, he didn't bite on the MR.

But I've got another referral and my buddy has a Performance 3 incoming in 4-8 weeks...

I’m most happy to know your buddy isn’t Bob, who quite clearly is a dick. May Bob rot in donut hell.

 

[CorneliusXX]

BASF, Nornickel join forces in EV battery push

Start-up of the plant, which will be able to supply batteries for about 300,000 EVs a year, is planned for late 2020, the supplier said in a statement.

What a push!

Good news. We need an announcement like this every week for a year and US annual vehicle sales will be covered.

 

[W84M3]

Here we go again

 

[mikevbf]

When you are totally devastating someones share of the market, why let them know until you have to? or to quote napoleon: 'never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake'.

Teslas grip on high end electric cars is already absolute at this point. I'm happy with everyone ignoring their insane production figures long enough to make their grip on the mid-range cars absolute too. I don't have to sell my shares this year.

I understand your sentiment as an investor, but Tesla's mission is quite the opposite from keeping other auto makers in dark. They want to catalyze the whole industry toward sustainable transportation and energy. Tesla can not do it alone and there is plenty of room for other auto makers to make the move toward electric while Tesla remains strong. Actually the more other auto makers join, the more electric cars get normalized and the populations outside of California, the North East and such start buying electric with the same gusto.

 

[Steve m]

"Now.

John has 5 shares and a promise from Bob to return 5 more shares later."

Hmm, you say that shares are rented out, but this feels like a semantics trick. When John logs into his brokerage account, what does he see? 5 non-rented shares and 5 rented-out shares? I'm guessing he sees 10 shares, plain and simple. And when Sam logs in he sees 5 shares as well. Therefore there are 15 shares that are now tradeable in the marketplace.

You're example, where you say "There are still just 10 shares." would only be accurate if the 5 shares that John loaned out were removed from the marketplace under John's name. In the real world, that's not the case. Those shares aren't removed under John's name and put into Bob's name (they may be from a pure legal standpoint, but not from a market numbers standpoint).

Yes, in theory, there are still just 10 shares, legally (as in, the actual legal note of stock ownership). But the actual number of shares that can be traded are 15 at this point. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You are wrong.

For John to sell those 5 shares he has loaned out he will have to recall them from Bob.

 

[ggr]

So it looks like more shares are around but the same amount of shares ( 170 m) can be traded at a given point in time. Therefore the effect on shares traded at a given time are not impacted.

If this is the sticking point, you're wrong. Both the original owner can put his 10 shares up for sale, and the new owner can sell his 5, at the same time. The shorter has to buy 5 shares on the open market to deliver to the original owner in time to settle his trade.

 

[ggr]

You are wrong.

For John to sell those 5 shares he has loaned out he will have to recall them from Bob.

You're wrong too. John may not have loaned out his shares, the broker might have done it from a margin account. John has no clue that the shares were loaned, and doesn't have to do anything before selling them. That's why there are settlement periods, so that the broker can recall the shares (note: after they were sold) to effect settlement.