TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Xpert]

So what does everyone think and expect on the ER call? This really is going to be the most fully loaded ER in the history of tesla. Lots of questions...$Tsla will have a large move, I think upside will be $300+ after ER if market doesnt crash. Hopefully runs up some into earning.

Things I am bullish about:

-Elon’s happy/chilling on Tweeter
- GAAP positive
-stable S+X sales
- high Q3 M3 margin (16%+)
-good ramp progress at fremont and G1 battery lines
-large number of Lemur orders
-china G3 accelerated timeline, funding secured. Production start late 2019/early 2020 (chinese build spreed!)
-Good Q4 forecast

Things i want to know that i can think of:
-when will ramp get to 7k/8k/10k per week
-how big is M3 order book/demand
-when to start europe M3 deliveries
-any Saudi deals
-any Europe Gigafactory plan
-Model Y reveal/progress/production plan
-Chairman/directors
-FSD timeline
-Tesla energy

 

[gora321]

Are you sure the list is uptodate? For example coverage was recently initiated by the Macquarie Group, with a price target of $430.

TESLA INC. REGISTERED SHARES DL-,001 Analystenmeinungen Aktie - A1CX3T - US88160R1014

Could be that they skipped some ratings but the hole is visible.

 

[dqd88]

BTW., the macro environment is deep red: NASDAQ futures dropped 100 points (-1.5%) overnight, Dow futures down -1.3%.

Bummer.
We need some good comments from bureaucrats on int rates and tariffs.

 

[hobbes]

Q3 results *tomorrow* (Wednesday)!
UPDATE - Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

 

[Fact Checking]

Bummer.
We need some good comments from bureaucrats on int rates and tariffs.

If Tesla's earnings are a big positive (or negative) surprise to the (diverging) expectations of bulls, bears and shorts then TSLA is probably going to ignore macro and even sector correlations for a few days.

I was wondering about yesterday's low volume and apparent lackluster shorting activities, and the happy buying in the second half of the day... Maybe there are some traders with a good read on how busy Tesla's accountants and lawyers are? Do they have access to Tesla HQ's coffee delivery transactions perhaps?

 

[neroden]

Bummer.
We need some good comments from bureaucrats on int rates and tariffs.

Har har. For that we need Trump to be removed from office. Given the massive corruption of the Republican Party, that probably won't happen until the 2020 election.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Har har. For that we need Trump to be removed from office. Given the massive corruption of the Republican Party, that probably won't happen until the 2020 election.

Good luck with the mobs when he kills all the auto sector jobs. I wonder if we are gonna get a cash for clunkers program out of this.

edit: nevermind. Forgot the details of that. It's quite clearly never going to come out of this administration. But we may get some variety of demand stimulus.

 

[Ulmo]

BTW., the macro environment is deep red: NASDAQ futures dropped 100 points (-1.5%) overnight, Dow futures down -1.3%.

How much of that is led by Brussels Shorts?

 

[dqd88]

Har har. For that we need Trump to be removed from office. Given the massive corruption of the Republican Party, that probably won't happen until the 2020 election.

Regardless if he stays or goes... he needs to start hinting at progress with China. That alone will quell fears.
And Fed Chair simply needs to say he's taking it day by day and int rate hike is not a given.
Just two simple whispers will send stocks higher.

 

[gora321]

Renault Q3 revenue falls 6% on emerging markets, Iran retreat

Someone is shrinking someone booming.
And the booming one has bad ratings?!

 

[Yggdrasill]

Loving the accelerated earnings.

I was starting to get a bit worried when we didn't get a date on friday. These past three months have been a rollercoaster, and while this ER probably won't change that too much, I'm hoping we will at least get out of margin call territory. Then in three months, I expect Tesla to show solid profits and cash flow in Q4, obliterating most of the remaining FUD. That's what I'm betting on, anyway; fingers crossed.

 

[dqd88]

So what does everyone think and expect on the ER call? This really is going to be the most fully loaded ER in the history of tesla. Lots of questions...$Tsla will have a large move, I think upside will be $300+ after ER if market doesnt crash. Hopefully runs up some into earning.

Things I am bullish about:

-Elon’s happy/chilling on Tweeter
- GAAP positive
-stable S+X sales
- high Q3 M3 margin (16%+)
-good ramp progress at fremont and G1 battery lines
-large number of Lemur orders
-china G3 accelerated timeline, funding secured. Production start late 2019/early 2020 (chinese build spreed!)
-Good Q4 forecast

Things i want to know that i can think of:
-when will ramp get to 7k/8k/10k per week
-how big is M3 order book/demand
-when to start europe M3 deliveries
-any Saudi deals
-any Europe Gigafactory plan
-Model Y reveal/progress/production plan
-Chairman/directors
-FSD timeline
-Tesla energy

I hope he slightly beats estimates and plays it cool. I hope there's a decent bump after EC; which then sets it up for bigger pop when board members are announced and more positive announcements that they are teeing up for the next few weeks.

I like your lists, except
"-how big is M3 order book/demand" - I just feel the backlog is a trap. Too easy to spin as fud if the backlog is filled, which is obv just par for the course.
Also hope nothing about Saudis is brought up. It's a very charge topic now.

 

[dqd88]

If Tesla's earnings are a big positive (or negative) surprise to the (diverging) expectations of bulls, bears and shorts then TSLA is probably going to ignore macro and even sector correlations for a few days.

I was wondering about yesterday's low volume and apparent lackluster shorting activities, and the happy buying in the second half of the day... Maybe there are some traders with a good read on how busy Tesla's accountants and lawyers are? Do they have access to Tesla HQ's coffee delivery transactions perhaps?

Hmm, are we supposed to be reading between the lines?
Vienna is know for their coffee right?

 

[Ulmo]

Cliff's Notes: If you buy an EV with the new BASF batteries, they were made with materials from one of the most polluting mining complexes on Earth.

Nickel ore is smelted at the company's processing site at Norilsk. This smelting is directly responsible for severe pollution, that generally comes in the form of acid rain and smog. By some estimates, one percent of global sulfur dioxide emission comes from Norilsk's nickel mines.[18] Heavy metal pollution near Norilsk is so severe that it has now become economically feasible to mine surface soil, as the soil has acquired such high concentrations of platinum and palladium.[19]

The Blacksmith Institute once included Norilsk in its list of the ten most polluted places on Earth, citing 2007 emissions statistics. The institute estimated that nearly 500 tonnes each of copper and nickel oxides, as well as two million tonnes of sulfur dioxide are annually released into the air at the site.[20]

Russia's Federal State Statistics Service lists Norilsk as the most polluted city in Russia. In 2017, Norilsk produced 1.798 million tonnes of carbon pollutants—nearly six times more than the 304.6 thousand tonnes that was generated by Russia's second-most polluted city, Cherepovets. Norilsk, the report states, decontaminates almost half of its emissions.[21]

Never mind the whole "supporting Russian oligarchs and the Russian government" aspect. BASF batteries now equate to "Putin Cells".

That shows that when one person claims the outcome of an activity is outcome A based on method A, and another person claims the outcome of a similar or identical activity is a different outcome B based on method B, they are talking about different methods, and therefore, their claims of the outcome can be inaccurate if applied to the incorrect methods.

 

[Lessmog]

400,000 cars produced yearly (S3XY’s and a few more semi’s for good measure) at this location by 2222 might do the trick.

You and I will not be around in 204 years. Probably nor "this location".

 

[Fact Checking]

I like your lists, except
"-how big is M3 order book/demand" - I just feel the backlog is a trap. Too easy to spin as fud if the backlog is filled, which is obv just par for the course.

Yeah - Tesla very likely has several order books and wait-lists, prioritized by margin, delivery location and a dozen of other details. This means there's a separate queue for the Model 3 Performance, a separate queue for LR AWD orders, a separate queue for Lemurs - and of course entirely separate queues per geography as well: Europe, right-hand-drive countries, etc.

Whether their queue for Europe is 100,000 or 150,000 orders is also entirely immaterial: as we saw it in the U.S. demand gets created on the fly, the pre-order book is just there to get the pipeline going. Daimler Benz managed to stay in business for 100 years and not go bankwupt, selling from inventory 99% of the time - under the pretty safe assumption that good cars get bought even if there's no pre-order for them. Tesla is also probably going to prioritize pre-orders in Europe as well and if you order Performance you'll likely be months ahead of people waiting for the SR version.

Giving too much information about pre-orders will only give bears/shorts ammunition to pick the weakest link in a wealth of data and lie about that... Tesla should make a single, well chosen order book statement that shows healthy demand, such as: 'Our new Model 3 Medium Range product got much more new orders than we expected, and most of the orders are configured with EAP and AWD.' Shorts/bears will have trouble melting down over that, without looking even more ridiculous.

 

[priscila]

I am still invested with hunders of shares in TSLA. When will this thing be up in the 350s again? I was promised it will be so right after Q3... what happened to all these Tesla bulls? 350s are being postponed to Q1 2019?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Which MP3Mike post are you referring to? The one where he leaves a cliffhanger? (I am waiting for the sequel)
I didn't even know there was a thesis to that post other than to say shorting can get convoluted and there are turns in that maze that make it an impractical system; he posited a scenario of high entanglement.

Not sure what your point is in all of this. This whole thread started when short troll Steve M (I think) made a random post defending short selling. I have been curious about the nuances of this and my sense was there's more to the story than meets the eye. So I began "investigating."

The go-to argument of troll M (and some others on here AND Jim Chanos in his attempted twitter refute to EM) is that there is no "dilution" because the # of shareholder votes and the dividend recipients don't change if a short sells a share to a long. That's a conflation and pivot tactic that avoids the point that there is a dilutive effect and downward pressure on SP. I feel quite confident after digesting various sides that this is the case.

Yes I'm still learning; thanks for pointing out that I don't know much. I'll simply defer to FC's post; that is my position; he articulated it much better than I ever could.

Yes, the rambling one with the cliffhanger.

As for my point, I was just trying to clear up what I thought was a misunderstanding of how shorting worked.

Actually, I do think that short selling has a positive role to play in the market, since it helps find the stock price equilibrium faster than regular buy-and-hold shareholding would permit. It's just that the modern day "crisis-of-confidence" short-scam has completely corrupted the "equilibrium" role. I wanted to write something about ignoring the shorts (since their arguments would be useless in the presence of a few profitable quarters), but will just end it with what's been written so far.

Don't waste your time raging against the shorts, just buy into the dips and hold instead.

 

[dqd88]

Yeah - Tesla very likely has several order books and wait-lists, prioritized by margin, delivery location and a dozen of other details. This means there's a separate queue for the Model 3 Performance, a separate queue for LR AWD orders, a separate queue for Lemurs - and of course entirely separate queues per geography as well: Europe, right-hand-drive countries, etc.

Whether their queue for Europe is 100,000 or 150,000 orders is also entirely immaterial: as we saw it in the U.S. demand gets created on the fly, the pre-order book is just there to get the pipeline going. Daimler Benz managed to stay in business for 100 years and not go bankwupt, selling from inventory 99% of the time - under the pretty safe assumption that good cars get bought even if there's no pre-order for them. Tesla is also probably going to prioritize pre-orders in Europe as well and if you order Performance you'll likely be months ahead of people waiting for the SR version.

Giving too much information about pre-orders will only give bears/shorts ammunition to pick the weakest link in a wealth of data and lie about that... They should make a single, well chosen order book statement that shows healthy demand, such as: 'Our new Model 3 Medium Range product got much more new orders than we expected, and most of the orders are configured with EAP and AWD.' Shorts/bears will have trouble melting down over that, without looking even more ridiculous.

Exactly! The overall queue matrix (if you will) has complexity, and is not conveyed in a simple manner to the public, and esp not through the filter of the the ill-intentioned shorts. Any decrease in backlog is spun as "demand is dead - T is doomed". So lame.

So hopefully they can wean the ears off of pre-order talk and somehow translate that into general guidance about overall demand.

 

[dqd88]

Actually, I do think that short selling has a positive role to play in the market, since it helps find the stock price equilibrium faster than regular buy-and-hold shareholding would permit.

I don't disagree and have dipped my toes into shorting (I think it was Restoration Hardware/Netflix). I don't think it's inherently bad to profit on the downswing... but if there's a way to do it where there's no dilutive effect, I think that would be a fairer system.