TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Lessmog]

Before I just wanted him to have an allergic reaction to cake and break out in acne, but now I want to push him in front of a bus.

Better if you can find a cliff to push him over. Why traumatize a poor innocent bus driver?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It’s hard not to love it, but reading Citron’s report makes me feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone.

I don't see why you love it. It's kind of embarrassing, to be honest.

They reported on car sales only and completely neglected to mention the overall market and the shift to SUVs that's now so complete that manufacturers are basically giving up on cars.

Here are BMW's September sales:
http://bmwmedia.iconicweb.com/media...2_September_2018_BMW_Group_US_Sales_Chart.pdf

Ignore the X5 drop. There's a new X5 coming next month.
Look at the 3 Series and the X3 changes.

Here's Mercedes's September release:
Look at the C Class and the GLC.

Here's Audi's September release:
Audi Newsroom

Look at the Q5. Look at how other numbers have pretty much held or increased.

There could well be a Tesla effect in the numbers, but the report completely ignores the flip to SUVs in the market and ascribes the changes to Tesla.

It also ignores the general market. Premium has outperformed mainstream, but it would hardly be surprising to see the premium segment flattening and falling.

 

[Lessmog]

Andrew Left and Chanos
Walked on a mile or so,
And then they rested on a rock
Conveniently low:
And all the SA bears stood
And waited in a row.

"The time has come," Andrew Left said,
"To talk of many things:
Of factories--and batteries--
Of CEOs--and kings--
And why the stock is boiling hot--
And whether pigs have wings."

"But wait a bit," SA bears cried,
"Before we have our chat;
For some of us are out of breath,
And all of us are fat!"
"No hurry!" said Jim Chanos
They thanked him much for that.

"A loaf of bread," Andrew Left said,
"Is what we chiefly need:
Pepper and vinegar besides
Are very good indeed--
Now if you're ready, SA bears dear,
We can begin to feed."

"But not on us!" SA bears cried,
Turning a little blue.
"After such kindness, that would be
A dismal thing to do!"
"The night is fine," Andrew Left said.
"Do you admire the view?

...

"I weep for you," Andrew Left said:
"I deeply sympathize."
With sobs and tears he sorted out
Those of the largest size,
Holding his pocket-handkerchief
Before his streaming eyes.

"O SA bears," said Jim Chanos,
"You've had a pleasant run!
Shall we be trotting home again?'
But answer came there none--
And this was scarcely odd, because
They'd eaten every one.

Very well versed, but please respect the TOTAL BAN ON POETRY!!11b

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Misleading nonsense.

The owner of the largest PUT options position in Tesla doesn't have any TSLA share positions to "protect". How do we know? They'd be well beyond reporting requirements, and "SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP" certainly doesn't own 13 million TSLA shares ...

The top PUT option owner is a shadowy, private prop trading firm connected to the Kochs, heavily short in Tesla...

(We can also tell by the strike prices they are buying that they are short positions hoping for bankwuptcy. We also know because prominent shorts like Spiegel were telling us that they bought PUTs.)

i normally like your posts, but this one is strange as it points to a lack of understanding about options.

you can't buy a put unless someone writes a put to sell. the put seller is trying to profit off of the decay in time value of the option, while a put buyer is hoping the stock falls faster than what they lose in time decay.

Puts are a limited risk for limited reward trade. Shorts who buy puts are either very confident (i.e. insider trading off of manufactured news) that the stock price will go down before the expiration date, or they're dumb shorts. the fact that MSpiegal owns put options just reinforces my sentiment. if susquehanna owns a significant amount of puts without TSLA shares, then they're just idiots too.

options are a way for an investor to leverage their investment thesis (short or long), not to impact the stock price - that can only be done with shorting and buying shares.

Point out how i've misunderstood the mechanics of options trading first, before you call my post as nonsense.

 

[tivoboy]

Nothings changed and Citron is full of *sugar* ..... they have simply changed the narrative to suit their position. If the SEC wants to really reform the market they should start with "ANALYSTS" .... I pity those who rely on these morons for investing advice.

Tesla killing the competition is no surprise .... they took around 400,000 reservations with people putting $1k on a car they had never seen before. The demand is there and it's real ... ICE car companies are in for a lot of pain coming up, some will make the transition to EV and do ok as there will be a huge market but many others will simply go the way of: Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, Blackberry, Palm ... when Apple introduced the iPhone.

iPhone=Model3

That's all the analysis you need.

I have to say, an EV (any EV actually) is not a near ubiquitous product (which is what cell phones were back in 2007) that has a minimum impact on disposable income for the overwhelming majority of buyers (most smartphones - nearly all cell phones in the USA at least were subsidized at the time so the incremental cost was minimal).

There will be many winners in this space, and no one true majority seller. And, frankly if we look at the overall smartphone market Apple is #3. Majority of market profits, for sure. Overall sales WW #3.

 

[theschnell]

I don't see why you love it. It's kind of embarrassing, to be honest.

They reported on car sales only and completely neglected to mention the overall market and the shift to SUVs that's now so complete that manufacturers are basically giving up on cars.

Here are BMW's September sales:
http://bmwmedia.iconicweb.com/media...2_September_2018_BMW_Group_US_Sales_Chart.pdf

Ignore the X5 drop. There's a new X5 coming next month.
Look at the 3 Series and the X3 changes.

Here's Mercedes's September release:
Look at the C Class and the GLC.

Here's Audi's September release:
Audi Newsroom

Look at the Q5. Look at how other numbers have pretty much held or increased.

There could well be a Tesla effect in the numbers, but the report completely ignores the flip to SUVs in the market and ascribes the changes to Tesla.

It also ignores the general market. Premium has outperformed mainstream, but it would hardly be surprising to see the premium segment flattening and falling.

I thought the same, but not about to let that get in the way of positive FUD after all the negative FUD they have been producing....

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why traumatize a poor innocent bus driver?

FSD then?

 

[shlokavica22]

FYI if you feel like playing more than one lottery this week:

Option_Sniper on Twitter

"TSLA oct26 310c now @ 4 good as LOTTO only for earnings."

The IV is >130 (for anyone considering).

 

[bhtooefr]

One factor influencing Apple's control of the majority of profits in the smartphone space while not being #1 in market share is the existence of companies that can sell smartphones at a loss for years without collapsing (last I saw, Apple had over 100% of the segment's profits), due to them having other businesses.

Most of the carmakers aren't diversified.

We could see a collapse scenario in which Tesla is dominant in market share due to competitors being mortally wounded.

 

[omarsultan]

I thought the same, but not about to let that get in the way of positive FUD after all the negative FUD they have been producing....

The thing that gets missed is by ignoring how hot the CUV segment is right now is that the the Model Y represents a second (and possibly larger) wave of demand right on the heels of the Model 3.

 

[KD2018]

I thought the same, but not about to let that get in the way of positive FUD after all the negative FUD they have been producing....

But if you look at the YTD overall increase in SUV vs overall lost in the sedan sales, the numbers don't add up for BMW. Furthermore, an increase of only 6k from 2017 to 2018 YTD is nothing great. To me it is just herding the SUV market for slaying by the pending model Y.

 

[Chickenlittle]

i normally like your posts, but this one is strange as it points to a lack of understanding about options.

you can't buy a put unless someone writes a put to sell. the put seller is trying to profit off of the decay in time value of the option, while a put buyer is hoping the stock falls faster than what they lose in time decay.

Puts are a limited risk for limited reward trade. Shorts who buy puts are either very confident (i.e. insider trading off of manufactured news) that the stock price will go down before the expiration date, or they're dumb shorts. the fact that MSpiegal owns put options just reinforces my sentiment. if susquehanna owns a significant amount of puts without TSLA shares, then they're just idiots too.

options are a way for an investor to leverage their investment thesis (short or long), not to impact the stock price - that can only be done with shorting and buying shares.

Point out how i've misunderstood the mechanics of options trading first, before you call my post as nonsense.

I believe you are missing the point. These puts trade frequently and the writer of put doesnt contine to be on the line at expiration. They are frquently bought back to close based on market action in which case someone else is the bag holder

 

[SO16]

• "We’ve reviewed the mechanics lien documents and they are tiny (i.e., $7.5M in aggregate) with none being “critical” suppliers by any stretch. Nothing for a company that will do over $20 billion in revenues this year."
• "From a technology standpoint, Tesla is light years ahead of the competition. No OEM is even close to having Tesla’s level of connectivity and “upgradeability” in its cars"

And the best of all for the end:

"
A Note to Our Critics

We know this note is going to have many critics, most being our fellow short sellers who might categorize us as opportunist. To anyone who challenges the integrity of Citron or our constant monitoring of the Tesla story all you have to do is look at the class action lawsuit recently filed against Tesla. In it you will see the principal of Citron was actively trading tens of millions of dollars of Tesla and the infamous "$420" tweet resulted in a loss of almost $2 million. By no means does Citron only trade on publishing stories. We actively manage a book that has been trading Tesla for five years. Yes, we are still suing Musk and Tesla and this recent report has no bearing on the current lawsuit.

Conclusion

As of the writing of this report, Tesla has just announced it has moved up its earnings release date to October 24. The last time TSLA reported Q3 earnings in October was in 2016 – when revenue beat the consensus by 21%. Does anybody think that Tesla decided to move up its earnings release date because of bad news? Sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction. While we may not be fans of the overconfident CEO, we cannot dismiss what we are seeing in the marketplace.

Cautious Investing to All
"

Still moaning over the 2 million loss in the 420 tweet? That should be thrown out of court. The SEC and shorts have done far worse to us longs with their FUD pushing.

 

[theschnell]

All joking aside, if Andrew Left wants to join the longs for the long term, I'd be glad to have him. Just not sure if that's his intention or rather a pump and dump...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I thought the same, but not about to let that get in the way of positive FUD after all the negative FUD they have been producing....

It just has me wondering whether they're hoping to pump and dump/short or just plain stupid.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I grabbed 14 shares at $255. Fascinating to watch the price jump $2.26 in the very last second of trade. Somebody badly didn't want to be sitting on their short position over the weekend. It's really tempting to sell my 14 shares at 260 for the lunch money (I can do after hours with my ig.com account) - and ride the dip again on Monday. It's just delightful to know that my lunch is on the shorts - people too engrossed in their finance world to understand that the world desperately needs Tesla to succeed.

Hi Carl,

So, did you have lunch, or are you waiting for a banquet?

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Please...please .......not another lesson in short selling...put writing...option sniping!

 

[KD2018]

Someone is loading up on protection big time. Tesla is up and yet the October 26th 250 puts price is also up. It was as high as $10.

 

[Huskyf]

280$ again

 

[KarenRei]

New daily high Over $281 now.