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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Even on V9, Autopilot (actually Auto Steer) fails miserably on curvy roads. I have tried V9 Autopilot in our Model 3 on our local mountain roads, which are well marked and mostly well maintained. I still have to seize control to prevent the car from drifting over the double yellow line in the middle of the road. While I'm optimistic that the new AI chip will improve overall accuracy, I'm not expecting FSD miracles overnight. My confidence level will improve when Autopilot can reliably stay in a lane and maintain appropriate speed on any state highway
Are your curvy roads a highway?
AP may never be able to perform as FSD due to less powerful chip and being unable to process a higher volume of data, which would lead to a better accuracy.
So, AP is not necessarily indicative of what FSD can do.
 
It's scary to hold in this market. Tesla could report excellent numbers and still take a huge beating like Netflix. I have some November 9 290$ calls purchased the day of the SEC lawsuit. I'm not sure if I should sell or hold.
I will hold my shares.

As I'm long with zero margin I feel it's easy hold in this market.
 
Tesla starts releasing Navigate on Autopilot feature with disappointing caveat, update with UI changes

What on earth is Fred doing using the word "disappointing" in this! I am thinking it is great given that Elon can now say Nav on autopilot is released tonight etc. The comments are also positive.

Sometimes I question Fred, especially with all the AI-related Autopilot stories they do. It should be obvious to him WHY they're doing this...it's so Tesla can validate the suggestions AP makes before they release the automatic lane changes.

If there's good agreement between when the system suggests a change and the driver confirms it by actually making the change, then it helps confirm their model. If there are a lot of cases where the system suggests a change and the user ignores it, it invalidates their model.

(This one's hard though. What if a lane change is valid, but the driver just decides to stay where he is? That would be a false negative).
 
Indeed.
Companies are all about margin. Hence the push on SUVs (because cost is proportional to size, innit).
With the tax credit drop coming (and a slight threat of elimination at the end of this year), I expect that there's much more to come as Tesla tries to push upsells as much as possible.
I wish there were more station wagon offerings. It's be best of both worlds - the cargo room of an SUV, and the handling of a sedan. Hardly anyone truly needs an SUV. It's laughable to see so many driving around the city. Most will never go off road.
 
They don't have to change your mind. But you should know how they're interpreting things. Ignorance of the "other side"'s views does nobody any favours.
But I highly doubt that any bear's intent here is enlighten us; my guess is that it's to instill fear, uncertainty and doubt. If one is seeking a bear's view, there are many places to find that; it's actually hard to avoid.
 
Why would you actually buy shares? If they rise $100 you make 25% or so. Why are so many investors here limiting their gains and increasing their risks by owning shares? I just do not get the strategy...

Imagine you can’t day trade, or even on a week or month time scale. Russell Rule prohibits you from closing a position at a profit in under 60, count ‘em, 60 days.
Now does owning shares look like a strategy? There’s still the satisfaction of finding the good entry points...
 
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Also the three most important financial parameters determining future valuation: cash flow, cash flow and cash flow.

The GAAP income bottom line is just a made up number, but cold hard cash in the bank is what made Amazon a trillion dollar company.

Some of the other auto companies' cash flow is interesting reading:

Daimler has had a cash flow of -€50 billion since 2011:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Daimler AG (DDAIF) from Morningstar.com

GM has burnt $35 billion in the last 3 years:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for General Motors Co (GM) from Morningstar.com

Volkswagen has also had a cash flow of -€50 billion since 2011:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Volkswagen AG (VW) from Morningstar.com

BMW has had a cash flow of -€15 billion since 2013:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) from Morningstar.com
 
Some of the other auto companies' cash flow is interesting reading:

Daimler has had a cash flow of -€50 billion since 2011:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Daimler AG (DDAIF) from Morningstar.com

GM has burnt $35 billion in the last 3 years:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for General Motors Co (GM) from Morningstar.com

Volkswagen has also had a cash flow of -€50 billion since 2011:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Volkswagen AG (VW) from Morningstar.com

BMW has had a cash flow of -€15 billion since 2013:
Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) from Morningstar.com
Ah, but surely those are INVESTMENTS in ... oh I dunno, battery tech, fabs, BMS dev, cobolt-free chargers?
 
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Interesting..
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Let's see .. $2.3bn in CB's convertible at almost $360 ... $TSLA stock price is $68 below conversion price .. I don't have a CB Delta Hedging black box like I did at M.S. but I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5-$2.0 billion depending on the greeks used (vol, gamma, etc)

Can someone translate this to English? :)
 
Tesla starts releasing Navigate on Autopilot feature with disappointing caveat, update with UI changes

What on earth is Fred doing using the word "disappointing" in this! I am thinking it is great given that Elon can now say Nav on autopilot is released tonight etc. The comments are also positive.
A few months ago Electrek went astray and started posting headlines that appeal to critics of the company. I no longer read that website. I get all my news from insideevs and cleantechnica. (and this site lol)

IMO the headline should read "Tesla Autopilot update raises the bar and confirms industry dominance"

Down to $289 before the close. Some weaklings are getting out while they think the going is good!
 
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